Bodo/Glimt, the clear favourite, boasts a 74% chance of winning at home. This is largely due to their impressive home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 3.4 goals scored and just 0.3 conceded. Lillestrom, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, with an 8% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 2-0, occurring 14.3% of the time. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 74% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, hit 79.2% of the time, as well as Home win, hit 74.1% of the time. Bodo/Glimt's home win percentage stands at 74%, draw at 18%, and away win at 8%. The model's suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals (79.2%), Home win (74.1%), and Away win (7.9%).
Results analysis
Bodo/Glimt's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches continued with a convincing 4-0 win over Lillestrom, extending their dominance at home. The final scoreline was a stark contrast to the most likely score predicted by the model, which suggested a 2-0 or 1-0 win for Bodo/Glimt. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 74%. The model also correctly predicted the over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 79.2%, and this selection hit. The home win was the model's selection, with the model's call being correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bodo/Glimt win✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied 14.7% · @ 6.35
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.97
Dafabet
6.80
1xBet
6.73
10Bet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Lillestrom win✗ Miss
7.8%
Avg Implied 9.9% · @ 9.42
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
10.70
Pinnacle
10.27
Marathonbet
10.25
BetVictor
10.00
Betfair
10.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bodo/Glimt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.00
3.06
0.62
1.93
1.43
vs Stronger (8)
2.12
1.75
2.75
1.25
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.40
2.00
1.67
1.33
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (17)
3.06
0.35
3.67
0.11
2.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.00
2.71
1.00
2.25
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
2.08
0.50
3.00
0.60
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
3.20
1.07
3.14
1.00
3.25
1.12
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodo/Glimt) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
@ 1.07-7.6%
Under 1.5
20.8%
@ 7.06+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
Pinnacle
7.14
10Bet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.30-16.5%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 3.30+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.57
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 1.80-19.4%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.97+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Under
SBO
2.06
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.3%
@ 1.63-14.5%
No
57.7%
@ 2.15+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
No
William Hil
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.3%@ 8.14+8.7%
1-0
11.8%@ 10.81+7.6%
3-0
10.8%@ 8.62+5.6%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.60+3.6%
1-1
8.6%@ 12.05+4.8%
3-1
6.7%@ 9.20+1.8%
0-0
6.3%@ 25.27+4.5%
4-0 ✓
6.2%@ 11.60+2.2%
Bodo/Glimt goals ↓
Lillestrom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
2.7%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1
12%
8.6%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
2
14%
8.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
6.7%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.2%
3.8%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bodo/Glimt goals (down), columns = Lillestrom goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.41
Viking
2.35
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.59
Lillestrom
1.53
Brann
1.47
Rosenborg
1.41
Fredrikstad
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.29
Valerenga
1.24
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Sandefjord
1.06
Aalesund
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Start
0.59
Bodo/Glimt is 0.88 points better than Lillestrom in terms of average points per game (2.41 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.53
Viking
2.35
Brann
2.12
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.88
Valerenga
1.65
Aalesund
1.59
Rosenborg
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.41
Lillestrom
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.18
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.06
Start
0.94
Sandefjord
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Bodo/Glimt is 1.18 goals better than Lillestrom in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.71
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.18
Lillestrom
1.24
Rosenborg
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35
Sandefjord
1.35
Molde
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.59
Fredrikstad
1.59
Kristiansund BK
1.59
Brann
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.76
Valerenga
2.00
Start
2.24
Aalesund
2.41
Bodo/Glimt is 0.53 goals better than Lillestrom in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Bodo/Glimt is 12.1 percentage points better than Lillestrom in terms of average possession (65% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bodo/Glimt
For 7.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lillestrom
For 5.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bodo/Glimt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.3
11.5
2.3
2.1
2.5
18.8
19.4
18.1
vs Stronger (8)
13.0
10.0
16.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
19.2
20.5
18.0
vs Similar (13)
8.5
7.8
9.4
3.0
2.9
3.2
22.7
23.0
22.4
vs Weaker (29)
11.2
11.6
10.9
1.7
1.4
2.0
16.9
17.2
16.6
% over line
61%
50%
73%
24%
24%
24%
36%
36%
35%
% under line
39%
50%
27%
76%
76%
76%
64%
64%
65%
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.1
11.3
1.2
1.4
1.0
24.5
25.7
23.3
vs Stronger (3)
10.5
10.5
-
2.0
3.0
0.0
27.5
27.5
-
vs Similar (20)
9.9
7.7
11.0
1.9
1.2
2.7
23.9
24.3
23.7
vs Weaker (27)
11.0
10.0
13.0
0.7
1.3
0.1
24.3
26.0
21.0
% over line
57%
29%
86%
16%
20%
12%
64%
86%
43%
% under line
43%
71%
14%
84%
80%
88%
36%
14%
57%
This opponent (Bodo/Glimt) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
11.8
Viking
11.6
Aalesund
11.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Rosenborg
10.9
Sandefjord
10.9
Brann
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.7
Ham-Kam
10.5
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Lillestrom
10.2
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.7
Tromso
9.0
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Start
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.3
Molde
4.3
Brann
4.1
Valerenga
4.0
Lillestrom
3.9
Rosenborg
3.9
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Start
3.7
Sandefjord
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.1
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
24.9
Viking
24.7
Start
24.3
Brann
24.2
Rosenborg
24.0
Valerenga
23.5
Molde
23.2
Tromso
23.0
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.8
Ham-Kam
22.3
Kristiansund BK
22.1
Lillestrom
21.7
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Aalesund
21.4
Fredrikstad
21.0
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.6%
@ 1.51+2.4%
Under 9.5
36.4%
@ 2.38-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.27
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.8%
Under 21.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bodo/Glimt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.25
0.31
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.24
1.22
0.11
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.86
0.50
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.42
1.20
0.40
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.40
0.86
0.43
1.38
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodo/Glimt) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bodo/Glimt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodo/Glimt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodo/Glimt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bodo/Glimt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.53
1.81
0.31
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
0.12
2.44
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.53
1.86
0.50
1.38
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.08
1.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (15)
2.07
0.67
2.29
0.57
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodo/Glimt) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bodo/Glimt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodo/Glimt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodo/Glimt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.8%
1.30
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home win
74.1%
1.23
Dafabet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (25)
€45m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (24)
€25m
ROS (20)
€18m
S0F (24)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
VAL (19)
€14m
AAL (24)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (22)
€11m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Bodo/Glimt's squad is €60m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€75m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (9)
€20m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (9)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
ROS (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
AAL (6)
€5m
SAN (7)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Bodo/Glimt's attack is €16m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€22m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Bodo/Glimt's midfield is €23m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€27m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
MOL (11)
€15m
VIK (11)
€13m
BRA (11)
€9m
ROS (10)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
VAL (6)
€3m
Bodo/Glimt's defence is €21m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€26m vs €5m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Brann
Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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