Bodrum FK are tipped to win the encounter, a 50 % chance that outweighs the 27 % draw and 23 % chance of a Çorum FK victory. The model expects 2.6 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline a 1-1 draw at 13 %. Bodrum’s home form shows a solid 1.46 goals per game and 1.15 conceded against similar opposition, while Çorum’s away numbers are 0.5 scored and 1.67 conceded. The match is likely to see Bodrum edge out a narrow win, with the final result predicted as 1-0. The model’s selections include an 85.8 % chance of Under 11.5 corners, an 82.7 % chance of Over 19.5 fouls, an 81.8 % chance of Over 2.5 cards, a 77.5 % chance of Under 10.5 corners, a 72.8 % chance of Under 3.5, a 71.5 % chance of Under 5.5 cards, and a 75.1 % chance of Over 1.5. The home side’s recent draw against Muğlaspor and the away side’s recent defeat to Kasimpasa add context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
Bodrum FK’s recent draw streak is now broken as they secure a 1-0 home win over Çorum FK, matching the model’s forecast. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 50 % probability and proved correct. The match’s final score of 1-0 confirmed the actual result of a home victory. The model’s selections performed largely as predicted: Under 11.5 corners hit at 85.8 %, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 82.7 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.8 %, Under 10.5 corners hit at 77.5 %, Under 3.5 hit at 72.8 %, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 71.5 %. Only the Over 1.5 selection missed, with a 75.1 % probability. The match’s total goal count of two aligned with the most likely 2-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bodrum FK win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bodrum FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.53
1.00
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.24
1.46
1.15
1.25
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.17
1.88
1.00
1.29
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.67
1.17
1.67
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (18)
2.11
0.83
2.30
0.60
1.88
1.12
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0 ✓
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.1%
Bodrum FK goals ↓
Çorum FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.0%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.5%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.0%
5.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bodrum FK goals (down), columns = Çorum FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.13
Amed
1.95
Çorum FK
1.90
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Manisa F.K.
1.45
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sarıyer
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Serik Spor
1.03
Sakaryaspor
0.92
Hatayspor
0.37
Adana Demirspor
0.16
Bodrum FK is 0.20 points worse than Çorum FK in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.16
Amed
2.13
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Boluspor
1.61
Çorum FK
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.50
İstanbulspor
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Vanspor FK
1.37
Iğdır FK
1.37
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Sakaryaspor
1.22
Sivasspor
1.19
Serik Spor
1.16
Sarıyer
1.16
Hatayspor
0.87
Adana Demirspor
0.58
Bodrum FK is 0.21 goals better than Çorum FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Erzurumspor FK
0.71
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Çorum FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
0.98
Amed
1.11
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Boluspor
1.50
Sakaryaspor
1.86
Serik Spor
1.97
Hatayspor
2.68
Adana Demirspor
4.45
Bodrum FK is 0.02 goals worse than Çorum FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.98 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Çorum FK
59%
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Erzurumspor FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Amed
53%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Sakaryaspor
47%
Hatayspor
46%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Serik Spor
41%
Adana Demirspor
38%
Bodrum FK is 10.0 percentage points worse than Çorum FK in terms of average possession (49% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bodrum FK
For 3.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Çorum FK
For 6.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bodrum FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.0
9.7
3.4
3.3
3.5
23.9
25.2
22.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.5
9.5
-
1.0
1.5
0.0
24.5
24.5
-
vs Similar (38)
8.8
7.8
9.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
24.6
26.4
22.9
vs Weaker (9)
8.9
8.0
9.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
20.9
20.8
21.0
% over line
40%
27%
52%
48%
46%
50%
72%
82%
62%
% under line
60%
73%
48%
52%
54%
50%
28%
18%
38%
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.5
8.4
4.7
4.6
4.8
22.7
21.4
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.7
9.3
10.1
5.8
6.2
5.4
21.6
18.7
24.1
vs Weaker (34)
8.6
9.5
7.6
4.1
3.8
4.5
23.2
22.5
24.1
% over line
46%
58%
33%
70%
62%
79%
60%
50%
71%
% under line
54%
42%
67%
30%
38%
21%
40%
50%
29%
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sivasspor
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Iğdır FK
9.2
Adana Demirspor
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Amed
9.0
Çorum FK
9.0
Bodrum FK
8.9
Serik Spor
8.9
Hatayspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Sakaryaspor
8.6
Esenler Erokspor
8.6
Erzurumspor FK
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.4
Vanspor FK
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sakaryaspor
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.2
Pendikspor
5.2
Çorum FK
5.1
Boluspor
5.1
Erzurumspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Amed
5.1
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Hatayspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Keçiörengücü
4.9
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.6
Ümraniyespor
4.5
Serik Spor
4.4
Bodrum FK
4.0
Adana Demirspor
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vanspor FK
28.3
Pendikspor
26.6
Boluspor
25.8
Sakaryaspor
25.4
Erzurumspor FK
24.1
Bodrum FK
23.9
Keçiörengücü
23.8
Hatayspor
23.7
Bandırmaspor
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Serik Spor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Sarıyer
23.3
Sivasspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.2
Iğdır FK
23.2
Çorum FK
22.9
Esenler Erokspor
22.7
Amed
22.2
Adana Demirspor
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
33.3%
Under 9.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.6%
Under 21.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bodrum FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.48
0.77
0.62
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.75
0.62
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.92
0.67
1.17
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.44
0.80
0.30
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bodrum FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bodrum FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.47
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.76
0.69
0.54
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.12
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.28
0.39
1.50
0.30
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bodrum FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (35)
€18m
IF (38)
€14m
EF (29)
€13m
MF (27)
€12m
SIV (25)
€11m
AME (26)
€11m
İST (37)
€11m
ÇF (32)
€10m
SS (44)
€10m
VF (31)
€10m
EE (25)
€10m
PEN (23)
€9m
BAN (29)
€9m
HAT (38)
€8m
ÜMR (26)
€8m
BOL (28)
€8m
SAK (30)
€8m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
AD (30)
€3m
Bodrum FK's squad is €7m more valuable than Çorum FK's (€18m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (14)
€9m
ÇF (13)
€6m
SIV (7)
€5m
VF (13)
€5m
SAK (12)
€5m
AME (8)
€4m
IF (14)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (12)
€4m
EE (9)
€4m
BAN (10)
€4m
EF (10)
€4m
HAT (15)
€4m
ÜMR (6)
€3m
SS (16)
€3m
PEN (7)
€3m
BOL (8)
€3m
SAR (7)
€2m
KEÇ (8)
€2m
AD (11)
€1m
Bodrum FK's attack is €3m more valuable than Çorum FK's (€9m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€4m
EF (5)
€4m
BF (8)
€3m
AME (7)
€3m
VF (6)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (6)
€2m
PEN (6)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
HAT (8)
€2m
BOL (8)
€2m
SS (10)
€2m
İST (8)
€2m
BAN (5)
€2m
SAK (6)
€2m
KEÇ (6)
€1m
ÇF (5)
€1m
EE (5)
€1m
SAR (4)
€1m
AD (5)
€0m
Bodrum FK's midfield is €2m more valuable than Çorum FK's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (13)
€6m
IF (15)
€5m
SS (18)
€5m
EF (14)
€5m
İST (17)
€5m
MF (10)
€5m
EE (11)
€5m
SIV (12)
€4m
AME (11)
€4m
BOL (12)
€3m
PEN (10)
€3m
ÇF (14)
€3m
ÜMR (13)
€3m
BAN (14)
€3m
HAT (15)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
VF (12)
€2m
SAK (12)
€2m
AD (14)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
Bodrum FK's defence is €2m more valuable than Çorum FK's (€6m vs €3m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →