PythiaFootballBETA
Bohemians host Galway United in the Ireland: Premier Division, with the home side boasting a recent form note of two straight defeats after a 1-3 loss to Waterford. However, they have a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.71.
The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 46%. The expected total goals are 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.7%.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Bohemians have a similar opponent strength at home, while Galway United have conceded an average of 1.33 goals per game when playing similar opponents away. The model's selection for this match is the Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 75.5% and an edge of 12%. The Over 1.5 goals is also a selection, with a probability of 72.8%. The probabilities for the match result are: home win 46%, draw 29%, and away win 26%. The suggested picks are: Under 3.5 (75.5%), Over 1.5 (72.8%).
Bohemians' 1-1 draw with Galway United extends their winless streak, but it's the home side who will be disappointed as they failed to capitalize on their pre-match favourite status. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with the probability standing at 46%. However, the model did correctly identify the draw as a possible outcome, with a 29% probability. The suggested picks also performed well, with 'Under 3.5' hitting at 75.5% and 'Over 1.5' also landing at 72.8%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, with a 13.7% probability, and the expected total goals were 2.5.
Bohemians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.29 | 1.21 | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.59 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.21 | 1.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Galway United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.24 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-19pp vs league) | |||||
| Galway United goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
BohemiansGalway UnitedBohemians| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 23.1 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 10.1 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 9.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 20.5 | 20.0 | 21.0 |
| % over line | 54% | 57% | 52% | 64% | 75% | 54% | 58% | 61% | 56% |
| % under line | 46% | 43% | 48% | 36% | 25% | 46% | 42% | 39% | 44% |
Galway United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 22.7 | 23.6 | 21.9 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 10.6 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 22.2 | 23.0 | 21.4 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 8.3 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 31.3 | 30.5 | 33.0 |
| % over line | 61% | 67% | 56% | 66% | 76% | 56% | 61% | 67% | 56% |
| % under line | 39% | 33% | 44% | 34% | 24% | 44% | 39% | 33% | 44% |
Bohemians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.72 | 0.48 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.53 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Galway United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Bohemians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.06 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.86 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Galway United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.79 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 75.5% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.47 | +11.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -6.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71.2% | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.29 | - | +2.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/10/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/07/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 05/05/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/11/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/07/24 | A | 1-1 |
Bohemians| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 26/06/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/06/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 19/06/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 15/05/26 | H | 2-1 |
Galway United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/06/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 19/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/06/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 54 | 59% | 2.0 | 43 | 24 | +19 | 2.5 | 70% | 44% | 26% | 8.3 | 15% | 4.9 | 76% | 23.3 | 58% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 63% |
| 2 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 50 | 50% | 1.8 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 2.4 | 75% | 36% | 29% | 10.2 | 70% | 4.8 | 69% | 23.1 | 59% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 3 | Bohemians | 28 | 47 | 46% | 1.7 | 47 | 34 | +13 | 2.9 | 79% | 57% | 36% | 10.1 | 59% | 4.2 | 56% | 23.1 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 4 |  Dundalk | 28 | 37 | 32% | 1.3 | 43 | 43 | +0 | 3.1 | 89% | 61% | 36% | 10.9 | 70% | 5.2 | 70% | 24.0 | 74% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 5 |  Shelbourne | 26 | 34 | 31% | 1.3 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 2.8 | 77% | 65% | 31% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.4 | 72% | 20.8 | 52% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 6 |  Derry City | 28 | 33 | 25% | 1.2 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 29% | 10.3 | 63% | 5.0 | 70% | 23.2 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 7 | Galway United | 27 | 33 | 30% | 1.2 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 33% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.9 | 58% | 23.8 | 69% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 39% |
| 8 |  Waterford | 28 | 29 | 21% | 1.0 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 3.0 | 79% | 46% | 39% | 11.6 | 63% | 4.2 | 56% | 22.9 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 39% |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 28 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 2.7 | 75% | 50% | 32% | 10.4 | 48% | 4.4 | 63% | 22.8 | 67% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 28 | 23 | 18% | 0.8 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 2.4 | 71% | 46% | 29% | 10.9 | 59% | 4.0 | 48% | 19.4 | 33% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 47% |