A tight, low-scoring affair is expected as Bokelj’s home defence has conceded 1.38 goals per game while Mornar’s away attack averages 1.29 goals and their defence is the stronger side, conceding only 0.71. The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of Mornar triumphing, 31% for a draw and 26% for a Bokelj win. The average total goals is 2.2, and the most likely total is 2, with a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (97.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Under 4.5 (92.7%) and Away +2 handicap (90.2%). Bokelj’s recent form shows a draw in their last match, while Mornar remains unbeaten in five outings, adding to the expectation of a cautious, low-scoring game.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bokelj win
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bokelj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.93
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
1.00
1.08
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.60
1.73
0.47
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
0.59
1.54
0.46
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.2%
Under 2.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.8%
No
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
13.0%
0-0
12.2%
0-2
9.4%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
5.9%
2-0
4.5%
Bokelj goals ↓
Mornar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.4%
4.1%
1.3%
1
8.6%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
4.5%
5.9%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
3
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bokelj goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Bokelj is 0.67 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Bokelj is 1.00 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Bokelj is 0.17 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bokelj or Draw
55.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
31%
45%
covers Bokelj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bokelj or Mornar
69.2%
Avg Implied -
25%
31%
45%
covers Bokelj + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mornar
75.5%
Avg Implied -
25%
31%
45%
covers Draw + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bokelj over/under 0.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bokelj, so a minus line means Bokelj give that many goals of a start and Mornar receive them. At -1, Bokelj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bokelj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bokelj)
Bokelj -2
2.3%
Draw -2
6.5%
Mornar +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bokelj)
Bokelj -1
8.8%
Draw -1
15.7%
Mornar +1
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bokelj)
Bokelj +1
55.3%
Draw +1
23.3%
Mornar -1
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bokelj)
Bokelj +2
78.6%
Draw +2
13.7%
Mornar -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bokelj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.25
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.26
0.77
0.23
0.79
0.29
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bokelj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.30
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.33
0.77
0.23
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Bokelj's squad is €2m less valuable than Mornar's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Bokelj and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Bokelj and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Bokelj's defence is €1m less valuable than Mornar's (€1m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG