The model predicts an away win for Otrant-Olympic, a result that carries a 45% probability, while a home win and a draw both sit at 27% each. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, with the most likely total of two goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the matchup.
Bokelj, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Otrant-Olympic, on the road, has a more potent attack, scoring an average of 2.0 goals while conceding only 0.89 against comparable teams. Recent form shows Bokelj coming off a draw, whereas Otrant-Olympic arrives on a win, adding to the latter’s confidence.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.4%), and Under 5.5 (94.1%). Each selection is presented with its precise probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bokelj win
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic win
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bokelj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.93
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
1.00
1.08
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
2.29
1.00
1.81
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.19
0.94
2.43
1.00
2.00
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
1.07
2.14
1.00
1.57
1.14
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
7.9%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
7.0%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.4%
Bokelj goals ↓
Otrant-Olympic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
9.0%
7.9%
4.1%
1.6%
1
6.4%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.5%
7.0%
5.4%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bokelj goals (down), columns = Otrant-Olympic goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Bokelj is 0.07 points worse than Otrant-Olympic in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Bokelj is 1.07 goals worse than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Bokelj is 0.90 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bokelj or Draw
54.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
27%
45%
covers Bokelj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bokelj or Otrant-Olympic
72.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
27%
45%
covers Bokelj + Otrant-Olympic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Otrant-Olympic
72.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
27%
45%
covers Draw + Otrant-Olympic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bokelj over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bokelj, so a minus line means Bokelj give that many goals of a start and Otrant-Olympic receive them. At -1, Bokelj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bokelj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bokelj)
Bokelj -2
3.6%
Draw -2
7.9%
Otrant-Olympic +2
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bokelj)
Bokelj -1
11.5%
Draw -1
15.9%
Otrant-Olympic +1
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bokelj)
Bokelj +1
54.8%
Draw +1
21.6%
Otrant-Olympic -1
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bokelj)
Bokelj +2
76.4%
Draw +2
14.0%
Otrant-Olympic -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bokelj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.25
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.29
0.21
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.25
1.43
0.00
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
Under 0.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.5%
Under 1.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.2%
Under 2.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bokelj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.30
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.79
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
Under 0.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.1%
Under 1.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Bokelj and Otrant-Olympic have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Bokelj and Otrant-Olympic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Bokelj and Otrant-Olympic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Bokelj and Otrant-Olympic have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG