PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Bokelj vs Sutjeska Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Bokelj
Bokelj
Vs
24%
28%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Sutjeska's recent form has been a story of inconsistency, with three straight defeats followed by two wins, but the team's away form against similar opponents is impressive, scoring 1.47 goals on average while conceding 1.07. In contrast, Bokelj's home form is less convincing, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding 1.25 against similar opponents. The model predicts an away win, with a probability of 48%, making it the favourite match result. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely score being 1-1 with a probability of 13.4%. The model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 48%.

The model also suggests the selection 'Away win' with a probability of 48%, 'Under 3.5' with a probability of 74.4% and an edge of 12%, and 'Over 1.5' with a probability of 73.7% and an edge of 12%. The home win percentage is 24%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 48%.

Results analysis

Bokelj's 1-0 win over Sutjeska marks the end of the visitors' 4-game losing streak, but the real story here is the upset. The model's selection, Sutjeska's away win, was wrong, given the low pre-match probability of just 24%. The actual result was a home win, which extends Bokelj's run to 4 games. The model's call was incorrect, as Bokelj were not the favourites. The model's selection, Sutjeska's away win, had a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's selection, Sutjeska's away win, was the only selection that did not come through. Under 3.5 hit, with a probability of 74.4%, while Over 1.5 missed, with a probability of 73.7%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bokelj win✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.07
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.19
1xBet
3.18
Dafabet
3.15
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.10
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.81
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.90
Bet365
2.90
10Bet
2.90
BetVictor
2.90
Betano
2.85
Sutjeska win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.36
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.43
Betano
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
BetVictor
2.38

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BokeljBokelj

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D23L00D30W12L10W00D20W10WH·JEZ18/04A·JED26/04H·SUT02/05A·MOR10/05H·ARS16/05A·BUD20/05H·DEČ24/05H·GRB29/05A·GRB03/06A·PET01/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.401.330.600.67
vs Stronger (3)1.330.672.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.961.121.461.540.420.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W11D32W11D30W10W13L12L01LH·BUD12/04A·PET18/04H·JEZ26/04A·BOK02/05A·ARS09/05H·DEČ16/05A·MLA20/05H·JED24/05H·ML 30/07H·BUD03/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.001.530.931.471.07
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (19)1.631.111.440.781.801.40
vs Weaker (10)1.300.701.801.000.800.40
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.7%
@ 1.49+12.3%
Under 1.5
26.3%
@ 2.38-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.44
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Superbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.39
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
@ 2.47+10.1%
Under 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.46-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
BetVictor
2.38
Under
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.49
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 4.76+6.4%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.13-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
@ 2.06+7.2%
No
48.4%
@ 1.65-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
BetVictor
2.05
No
BetVictor
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.55+5.7%
0-1
10.6%@ 5.81+3.4%
1-2
9.3%@ 9.59+4.9%
0-2
9.1%@ 9.57+4.7%
0-0
8.9%@ 6.16+2.1%
1-0 ✓
6.7%@ 6.83+0.5%
2-1
6.2%@ 11.00+2.4%
2-2
4.8%@ 16.29+2.2%
Bokelj goals ↓
Sutjeska goals →
01234
08.9%11%9.1%4.7%1.8%
16.7%13%9.3%4.8%1.8%
24.1%6.2%4.8%2.5%0.9%
31.4%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bokelj goals (down), columns = Sutjeska goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
1.80
Bokelj
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Bokelj is 0.80 points better than Sutjeska in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Sutjeska
1.20
Mornar
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Bokelj
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Bokelj is 0.80 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Bokelj
0.20
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Mornar
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Bokelj is 1.20 goals better than Sutjeska in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BokeljBokelj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D11D00D10W12L00D00D10W10WH·JEZ18/04A·JED26/04H·SUT02/05A·MOR10/05H·ARS16/05A·BUD20/05H·DEČ24/05H·GRB29/05A·GRB03/06A·PET01/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.500.530.530.330.47
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (25)0.440.520.620.620.250.42
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D11D00D10W00D03L01L00DH·BUD12/04A·PET18/04H·JEZ26/04A·BOK02/05A·ARS09/05H·DEČ16/05A·MLA20/05H·JED24/05H·ML 30/07H·BUD03/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.270.470.530.53
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (19)0.420.530.220.330.600.70
vs Weaker (10)0.400.400.400.600.400.20
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BokeljBokelj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D12L00D20W00D10W00D10W00DH·JEZ18/04A·JED26/04H·SUT02/05A·MOR10/05H·ARS16/05A·BUD20/05H·DEČ24/05H·GRB29/05A·GRB03/06A·PET01/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.870.800.270.20
vs Stronger (3)1.000.002.000.000.500.00
vs Similar (25)0.520.600.850.920.170.25
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D11D21W11D20W10W10W11D01LH·BUD12/04A·PET18/04H·JEZ26/04A·BOK02/05A·ARS09/05H·DEČ16/05A·MLA20/05H·JED24/05H·ML 30/07H·BUD03/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.501.270.470.930.53
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (19)1.210.581.220.441.200.70
vs Weaker (10)0.900.301.400.400.400.20
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.4%1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-6.4%✓ Hit
Over 1.573.7%1.49
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
+12.3%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Bokelj's squad is €3m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€2m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Bokelj's attack is €2m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Bokelj and Sutjeska have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Bokelj's defence is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
BOK wins
0
Draws
7
SUT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bokelj vs Sutjeska · H/A from BOK
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HBOK Vs Sutjeska2-3
07/03/26ASutjeska Vs BOK2-1
01/11/25HBOK Vs Sutjeska4-5
30/08/25ASutjeska Vs BOK5-2
04/05/25ASutjeska Vs BOK1-0
08/03/25HBOK Vs Sutjeska1-2
27/10/24ASutjeska Vs BOK0-2
25/08/24HBOK Vs Sutjeska0-3

BokeljBokelj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26APetrovac Vs BOK0-1
03/06/26AGrbalj Vs BOK0-2
29/05/26HBOK Vs Grbalj0-0
24/05/26HBOK Vs Dečić1-0
20/05/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs BOK2-1
16/05/26HBOK Vs Arsenal Tivat3-0
10/05/26AMornar Vs BOK0-0
02/05/26HBOK Vs Sutjeska2-3
26/04/26AJedinstvo Vs BOK1-1
18/04/26HBOK Vs Jezero0-2

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-1
30/07/26HSUT Vs ML Vitebsk1-2
24/05/26HSUT Vs Jedinstvo1-3
20/05/26AMladost DG Vs SUT0-1
16/05/26HSUT Vs Dečić3-0
09/05/26AArsenal Tivat Vs SUT1-1
02/05/26ABokelj Vs SUT2-3
26/04/26HSUT Vs Jezero1-1
18/04/26APetrovac Vs SUT0-1
12/04/26HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bokelj
Bokelj
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.08
HomeLLWWD0.92
AwayDDLWW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%21%31%
AVG goals2.322.831.85
Over 1.5 %66%83%50%
Over 2.5 %36%46%27%
Over 3.5 %18%25%12%
Scored0.981.170.81
Conceded1.341.671.04
BTTS40%50%31%
Clean Sheet40%29%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.72
HomeDWLLL1.85
AwayLWWDW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%58%46%
AVG goals2.722.852.58
Over 1.5 %74%81%67%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.561.771.33
Conceded1.161.081.25
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet36%35%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar59
40%
1.8
64+2
2.0
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.8
-
3BokeljBokelj58
40%
1.6
21+1
0.6
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.40.2
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

← all matches