Bolton’s unbeaten run of five games, capped by a 0-0 draw with QPR, sets a positive tone for the home side, while Lincoln’s recent 1-3 loss to Portsmouth after two defeats signals a shaky start away. The model favours a Bolton victory, assigning a 38 % chance to a home win, 26 % to a draw and 36 % to a Lincoln win. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8 % probability, and the expected total goals is 3.1, though the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 23 % chance.
Bolton averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded at home against similarly ranked teams, whereas Lincoln averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.79 conceded on the road. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3 %), Under 5.5 (90.4 %), Over 1.5 (82.9 % with an 11 % edge), Home +2 handicap (82.3 % with a 1 % edge) and Away +2 handicap (80.4 % with a 2 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset was swift: Bolton’s home form, still rattled after a recent defeat, could not hold against Lincoln’s 2-game winning streak, and the final score was 0-1 in favour of the visitors. The model had picked a home win with a 38% probability, but that call proved wrong. Every suggested selection was addressed: Under 7.5 hit at 98.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.0%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93.1%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 90.4%, Over 1.5 missed at 82.9%, Home +2 handicap hit at 82.3%, and Away +2 handicap hit at 80.4%. The match confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals and handicaps, but the favourite’s expectation did not materialise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bolton win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.44
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.25
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Dafabet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Lincoln win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.87
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.92
Dafabet
2.90
Superbet
2.90
1xBet
2.89
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bolton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.13
2.21
1.36
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.37
2.40
1.70
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.73
1.75
0.50
1.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
0.90
2.57
1.00
2.06
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
2.39
0.89
2.69
1.08
2.13
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.9%
@ 1.32+11.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
@ 3.23-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.3%
@ 2.02+13.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
@ 1.78-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
Betfair
2.05
SBO
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.9%
@ 3.46+10.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
@ 1.28-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.4%
@ 1.75+10.2%
No
36.6%
@ 1.99-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 5.87+4.2%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.87+3.5%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.86+3.7%
2-2
6.5%@ 12.84+3.0%
1-0
6.0%@ 7.45-0.1%
0-1 ✓
5.7%@ 8.32+0.3%
2-0
5.6%@ 11.21+1.6%
0-0
5.5%@ 8.69+0.3%
Bolton goals ↓
Lincoln goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.7%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.0%
12%
8.2%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.3%
3
3.0%
4.5%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bolton goals (down), columns = Lincoln goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Bolton is 0.06 points better than Lincoln in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Bolton is 0.05 goals better than Lincoln in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Bolton is 0.11 goals better than Lincoln in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bolton
For 4.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lincoln
For 5.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bolton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.1
9.8
3.5
4.0
2.9
21.9
21.3
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
10.7
11.3
10.0
3.7
4.3
3.0
22.0
21.7
22.3
vs Weaker (18)
10.0
10.8
9.3
3.1
3.4
2.8
21.8
20.5
23.0
% over line
58%
62%
54%
44%
60%
28%
54%
38%
71%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
56%
40%
72%
46%
62%
29%
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.4
8.5
4.0
4.3
3.8
23.0
23.1
22.9
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
5.0
10.0
4.5
7.0
2.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (47)
9.0
9.7
8.4
4.0
4.1
3.8
22.8
22.8
22.9
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
39%
43%
35%
56%
65%
48%
63%
70%
58%
% under line
61%
57%
65%
44%
35%
52%
37%
30%
42%
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.8%
@ 1.94+7.0%
Under 9.5
45.2%
@ 1.78-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.9%
@ 2.04+13.4%
Under 3.5
41.1%
@ 1.70-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.8%
@ 1.72-1.0%
Under 21.5
49.2%
@ 1.85+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
Under
Superbet
1.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bolton or Draw✗ Miss
64.3%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.39
Edge
-2.9%
38%
26%
36%
covers Bolton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bolton or Lincoln✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.31
Edge
+2.8%
38%
26%
36%
covers Bolton + Lincoln
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Draw or Lincoln✓ Hit
61.6%
Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.52
Edge
+0.2%
38%
26%
36%
covers Draw + Lincoln
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bolton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.6%
@ 1.28+7.0%
Under
20.4%
@ 3.40-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Bolton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 2.41+8.3%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.53-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Bolton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 5.44+4.4%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.12-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bolton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 12.35+0.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.02-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Lincoln over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
@ 1.33+8.5%
Under
21.7%
@ 3.07-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Lincoln over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 2.67+10.2%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.44-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.68
10Bet
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Lincoln over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.8%
@ 6.49+5.5%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.09-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Lincoln over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 15.67+0.8%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.02-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bolton, so a minus line means Bolton give that many goals of a start and Lincoln receive them. At -1, Bolton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bolton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bolton)Actual: Lincoln
Bolton -2
7.9%
@ 10.53-0.6%
Draw -2
11.7%
@ 6.50-2.0%
Lincoln +2
80.4%
@ 1.15+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Bolton)Actual: Lincoln
Bolton -1
19.6%
@ 4.80+0.9%
Draw -1
18.8%
@ 4.01-3.6%
Lincoln +1
61.6%
@ 1.52+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
10Bet
3.90
Away
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Handicap +1 (Bolton)Actual: Draw
Bolton +1
64.3%
@ 1.39-0.0%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 4.36-2.6%
Lincoln -1
17.7%
@ 5.91+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
Handicap +2 (Bolton)Actual: Bolton
Bolton +2
82.3%
@ 1.10-0.3%
Draw +2
10.8%
@ 8.12-0.3%
Lincoln -2
6.9%
@ 14.50+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bolton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.86
0.36
0.12
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.37
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.00
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.36
0.29
1.06
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.25
0.46
1.46
0.31
1.07
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.94
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bolton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Unibet
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bolton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bolton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bolton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.77
1.36
1.00
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.00
1.40
1.20
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.36
1.25
0.50
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.47
1.21
0.71
1.00
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.43
1.23
0.77
1.07
0.13
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betano
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Under
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
William Hil
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bolton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Bolton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bolton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.0%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.9%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+11.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
82.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
79.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
1.46
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.36
-
+14.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
1.31
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
+2.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bolton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Dalby40%
Thierry Gale20%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
J. Sheehan0%
John McAtee0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Hardie33%
Akin Famewo20%
J. Sheehan20%
John McAtee20%
Thierry Gale20%
Gaizka Larrazabal20%
Chris Forino20%
S. Dalby0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
John McAtee20%
Thierry Gale20%
S. Dalby0%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
J. Sheehan0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Sheehan40%
John McAtee40%
S. Iling-Junior25%
S. Dalby20%
Thierry Gale20%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Lincoln
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben House50%
C. Elder25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
R. Hackett17%
Dom Jefferies17%
Tanto Olaofe17%
R. Street17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben House50%
Conor McGrandles40%
Tom Hamer33%
Freddie Draper33%
M. Melia25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
Tanto Olaofe17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
R. Hackett0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
C. Elder0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Elder50%
Tendayi Darikwa33%
Tom Bayliss20%
Freddie Draper17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Ben House0%
Tom Hamer0%
R. Hackett0%
A. Reach0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben House50%
R. Hackett33%
R. Street33%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
A. Reach0%
C. Elder0%
Tom Bayliss0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Bolton's squad is €5m more valuable than Lincoln's (€17m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Bolton and Lincoln have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Bolton's midfield is €2m more valuable than Lincoln's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Bolton's defence is €2m more valuable than Lincoln's (€9m vs €6m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Derby
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston