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Bonnyrigg Rose vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 2-3
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Vs
39%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Bonnyrigg Rose win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.21
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.47
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied 32.1% · @ 2.86
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D02L10W02L01L24L12L20W14L12LA·STR13/08H·ALB20/08H·STI27/08A·ELG03/09A·DUM17/09H·STE01/10A·ALB08/10H·ANN11/10H·EAS15/10A·STI29/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.251.581.331.671.171.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.002.000.503.001.331.33
vs Weaker (7)1.431.291.751.001.001.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D22D12L20W33D51W32W10W01L12LA·FOR13/08H·STR20/08A·DUM27/08H·BON03/09A·STE17/09H·ANN01/10A·STR08/10H·ALB11/10H·FOR15/10A·EAS29/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.531.401.271.201.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.821.451.141.140.252.00
vs Weaker (19)1.581.581.621.381.551.73
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.71+6.0%
Under 2.5
39.7%
@ 2.03-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
Bonnyrigg Rose goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
05.5%5.6%5.0%2.5%1.0%
16.0%12%8.1%4.1%1.5%
25.7%8.7%6.5%3.3%1.2%
33.1%4.6%3.5%1.8%0.7%
41.2%1.9%1.4%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Bonnyrigg Rose is 0.06 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose is 0.22 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Bonnyrigg Rose is 0.42 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.72).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 4.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

130645415384337548146769581261212513A·STIH·EASH·ANNA·ALBH·STEA·DUMA·ELGH·STIH·ALBA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

1005523213322421122112510536462427A·STIH·EASH·ANNA·ALBH·STEA·DUMA·ELGH·STIH·ALBA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

280111761215915791711117912121398828182422262216242216A·STIH·EASH·ANNA·ALBH·STEA·DUMA·ELGH·STIH·ALBA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 3.4 · Against 7.3 · Total 10.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

18032336521246312571461211056111410151251811A·EASH·FORH·ALBA·STRH·ANNA·STEH·BONA·DUMH·STRA·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

1006235423222411146143488654521057A·EASH·FORH·ALBA·STRH·ANNA·STEH·BONA·DUMH·STRA·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

30015131414191112139988971411102015928283025181616253024A·EASH·FORH·ALBA·STRH·ANNA·STEH·BONA·DUMH·STRA·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (12)8.69.37.84.53.35.721.822.021.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (5)7.27.07.33.63.53.720.620.021.0
vs Weaker (7)9.610.58.35.13.27.722.623.022.0
% over line42%50%33%58%50%67%67%67%67%
% under line58%50%67%42%50%33%33%33%33%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.78.44.24.34.123.023.622.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (17)8.59.27.63.53.24.022.522.023.3
vs Weaker (33)8.68.48.84.55.04.223.324.622.1
% over line30%28%32%56%64%48%61%64%58%
% under line70%72%68%44%36%52%39%36%42%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Dumbarton
10.1
Forfar
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.3
Stranraer
9.2
Albion Rvs
8.8
East Fife
8.7
Stirling
8.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
8.6
Elgin
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Dumbarton
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
East Fife
3.5
Albion Rvs
3.5
Forfar
3.4

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Elgin
23.0
Stranraer
22.7
Forfar
22.6
Stirling
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.0
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.8
Dumbarton
21.5
Stenhousemuir
21.4
Albion Rvs
21.2
East Fife
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.1%
Under 9.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.7%
Under 3.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.7%
Under 21.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W01L01L02L12L10W10W11DA·STR13/08H·ALB20/08H·STI27/08A·ELG03/09A·DUM17/09H·STE01/10A·ALB08/10H·ANN11/10H·EAS15/10A·STI29/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.750.500.500.831.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.800.800.500.501.001.00
vs Weaker (7)0.570.710.500.500.671.00
Clean sheet %42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W10W10W11D20W22D00D01L01LA·FOR13/08H·STR20/08A·DUM27/08H·BON03/09A·STE17/09H·ANN01/10A·STR08/10H·ALB11/10H·FOR15/10A·EAS29/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.730.600.600.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.270.640.430.430.001.00
vs Weaker (19)0.890.681.000.750.820.64
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L00D01L00D22D00D10W04L01LA·STR13/08H·ALB20/08H·STI27/08A·ELG03/09A·DUM17/09H·STE01/10A·ALB08/10H·ANN11/10H·EAS15/10A·STI29/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.830.831.170.330.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.201.200.002.500.330.33
vs Weaker (7)0.860.571.250.500.330.67
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L02L10W22D31W10W10W00D11DA·FOR13/08H·STR20/08A·DUM27/08H·BON03/09A·STE17/09H·ANN01/10A·STR08/10H·ALB11/10H·FOR15/10A·EAS29/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.870.670.670.601.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.550.820.710.710.251.00
vs Weaker (19)0.680.890.620.620.731.09
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners79.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls73.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls73.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards72.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BR wins
0
Draws
1
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bonnyrigg Rose vs Elgin · H/A from BR
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22AElgin Vs BR2-0

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22AStirling Vs BR2-1
15/10/22HBR Vs East Fife1-4
11/10/22HBR Vs Annan Athletic2-0
08/10/22AAlbion Rvs Vs BR2-1
01/10/22HBR Vs Stenhousemuir2-4
17/09/22ADumbarton Vs BR1-0
03/09/22AElgin Vs BR2-0
27/08/22HBR Vs Stirling1-0
20/08/22HBR Vs Albion Rvs0-2
13/08/22AStranraer Vs BR2-2

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22AEast Fife Vs ELG2-1
15/10/22HELG Vs Forfar0-1
11/10/22HELG Vs Albion Rvs1-0
08/10/22AStranraer Vs ELG2-3
01/10/22HELG Vs Annan Athletic5-1
17/09/22AStenhousemuir Vs ELG3-3
03/09/22HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-0
27/08/22ADumbarton Vs ELG2-1
20/08/22HELG Vs Stranraer2-2
13/08/22AForfar Vs ELG2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.08
HomeLWLWL1.50
AwayDLLLL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%50%17%
AVG goals2.833.002.67
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %50%33%67%
Over 3.5 %25%33%17%
Scored1.251.331.17
Conceded1.581.671.50
BTTS42%33%50%
Clean Sheet33%50%17%
Corners8.589.337.83
Cards4.503.335.67
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.12
HomeDWWWL1.48
AwayDLDWL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%40%16%
AVG goals2.682.562.80
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %46%36%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.181.361.00
Conceded1.501.201.80
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners8.588.728.44
Cards4.204.284.12

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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