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Bonnyrigg Rose vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 06/05/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Vs
40%
28%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Bonnyrigg Rose win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.11
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.48
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.06
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W12L11D10W10W00D02L10W00DH·FOR28/02A·ELG04/03A·STI11/03H·EAS18/03A·ALB25/03H·STR01/04A·STE08/04H·DUM15/04A·FOR22/04A·ANN29/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.431.141.930.561.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.781.781.003.000.600.80
vs Weaker (21)0.861.291.201.500.551.09
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L14L02L03L01L03L11D20W13L10WH·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04H·FOR15/04A·STR22/04H·DUM29/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.601.121.191.292.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.601.000.800.802.40
vs Weaker (20)1.351.601.181.361.561.89
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.65-4.0%
Under 2.5
47.6%
@ 2.14+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.2%
Under 3.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
0-1
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
Bonnyrigg Rose goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
07.4%7.0%5.3%2.3%0.8%
17.9%13%7.8%3.4%1.1%
26.7%8.8%5.7%2.5%0.8%
33.3%4.3%2.8%1.2%0.4%
41.2%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Bonnyrigg Rose is 0.06 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose is 0.22 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Bonnyrigg Rose is 0.42 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.72).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 5.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

21042731255837113822255361031011821478A·ANNA·FORH·DUMA·STEH·STRA·ALBH·EASA·STIA·ELGH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

805225311422213241257282644617A·ANNA·FORH·DUMA·STEH·STRA·ALBH·EASA·STIA·ELGH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

350121113131414912131414136121411128152023262821272718252035A·ANNA·FORH·DUMA·STEH·STRA·ALBH·EASA·STIA·ELGH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 2.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

1201324234816523743652465127710767H·DUMA·STRH·FORH·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70212311133315212012426471H·DUMA·STRH·FORH·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 20.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

3201113814101361246107771715101581224222318101714322520H·DUMA·STRH·FORH·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (35)9.410.38.64.44.34.522.423.321.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (11)9.411.67.53.53.83.322.121.622.5
vs Weaker (24)9.59.89.24.84.55.122.524.021.0
% over line49%59%39%63%65%61%60%59%61%
% under line51%41%61%37%35%39%40%41%39%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.68.64.03.84.322.221.722.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (16)8.39.57.13.73.14.222.823.222.4
vs Weaker (34)8.78.29.24.24.14.421.920.923.0
% over line38%36%40%58%56%60%53%44%62%
% under line62%64%60%42%44%40%47%56%38%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.8
Forfar
10.5
Dumbarton
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.7
Albion Rvs
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.4
Stranraer
9.4
Stirling
9.3
East Fife
9.1
Elgin
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
East Fife
4.1
Elgin
4.0
Albion Rvs
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Stranraer
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.8
Forfar
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
22.4
Elgin
22.2
Forfar
22.0
East Fife
21.4
Albion Rvs
21.4
Stranraer
21.0
Stirling
20.9
Annan Athletic
20.8
Dumbarton
20.6
Stenhousemuir
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.0%
Under 9.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 3.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.3%
Under 21.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D10W00D00D00D00D00D10W00DH·FOR28/02A·ELG04/03A·STI11/03H·EAS18/03A·ALB25/03H·STR01/04A·STE08/04H·DUM15/04A·FOR22/04A·ANN29/04
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.430.860.310.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.221.000.251.500.200.60
vs Weaker (21)0.430.520.500.600.360.45
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L02L01L00D00D20W01L00DH·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04H·FOR15/04A·STR22/04H·DUM29/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.500.620.710.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.500.200.600.600.40
vs Weaker (20)0.700.800.640.640.781.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W02L11D10W10W00D02L00D00DH·FOR28/02A·ELG04/03A·STI11/03H·EAS18/03A·ALB25/03H·STR01/04A·STE08/04H·DUM15/04A·FOR22/04A·ANN29/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.711.070.250.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.780.751.500.400.20
vs Weaker (21)0.430.760.700.900.180.64
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L01L01L00D03L11D00D12L10WH·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04H·FOR15/04A·STR22/04H·DUM29/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.620.560.571.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.501.100.800.200.202.00
vs Weaker (20)0.650.800.550.730.780.89
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards81.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.577.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners76.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls75.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards72.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls71.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
BR wins
0
Draws
2
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bonnyrigg Rose vs Elgin · H/A from BR
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/23AElgin Vs BR0-1
05/11/22HBR Vs Elgin2-3
03/09/22AElgin Vs BR2-0

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23AAnnan Athletic Vs BR0-0
22/04/23AForfar Vs BR0-1
15/04/23HBR Vs Dumbarton0-2
08/04/23AStenhousemuir Vs BR0-0
01/04/23HBR Vs Stranraer1-0
25/03/23AAlbion Rvs Vs BR0-1
18/03/23HBR Vs East Fife1-1
11/03/23AStirling Vs BR2-1
04/03/23AElgin Vs BR0-1
28/02/23HBR Vs Forfar1-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23HELG Vs Dumbarton1-0
22/04/23AStranraer Vs ELG3-1
15/04/23HELG Vs Forfar2-0
11/04/23HELG Vs Stenhousemuir1-1
08/04/23AAlbion Rvs Vs ELG3-0
04/04/23AStirling Vs ELG1-0
01/04/23HELG Vs Stirling0-3
24/03/23AEast Fife Vs ELG2-0
11/03/23AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG4-1
04/03/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.11
HomeLDDWL1.06
AwayLWDWD1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%29%28%
AVG goals2.292.821.78
Over 1.5 %66%82%50%
Over 2.5 %37%41%33%
Over 3.5 %20%29%11%
Scored0.941.120.78
Conceded1.341.711.00
BTTS43%53%33%
Clean Sheet34%24%44%
Corners9.4310.298.61
Cards4.404.294.50
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.04
HomeLLDWW1.16
AwayLLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.742.522.96
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.101.121.08
Conceded1.641.401.88
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners8.608.648.56
Cards4.043.764.32

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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