Boreham Wood vs Altrincham Result & Analysis

The match sits on a razor-edge, with the model favouring a Boreham Wood win but the odds are tight: 38% for home, 28% for a draw, 33% for Altrincham. The average goal count is 2.7, and the most probable total is two goals, with a 26% chance of exactly 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% probability. Boreham Wood, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded; Altrincham, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.7%, Over 1.5 at 75.7%, Under 4.5 cards at 75.3%, and Under 3.5 at 72.2%. These picks reflect the expected low-scoring nature and tight defensive contest predicted for the game.

Altrincham’s narrow 1-0 victory stunned the pre-match favourite, Boreham Wood, who had been on a three-game winning run at home. The model had tipped a home win with a 38% chance, but the result was an away win, so the model’s call was wrong. The match delivered a single goal, matching the most likely total of two goals (26% probability) but falling short of the expected 2.7. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards hit at 87.7%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 75.3%, Under 3.5 hit at 72.2%, while Over 1.5 missed at 75.7%. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the upset.