The match is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 40%. Home and away win probabilities both sit at 30%, leaving a draw also at 30%. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. Boreham Wood, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded, while Solihull, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 82.3%, Under 3.5 at 78.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 72.3%. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the away win, but the prediction remains balanced and uncertain.
Results analysis
The match finished 0-3 in favour of Solihull, extending their winless streak and confirming the model’s favourite of an away win with a 40% probability. The prediction that the game would end 0-3 was spot on, as the final score matched the model’s pick. Boreham Wood’s home form, a three-game winning run, was not enough against Solihull’s away form, which had suffered five consecutive defeats. The model’s suggested selections performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 82.3%, Under 3.5 hit at 78.5%, while Over 2.5 cards missed at 72.3%. Overall, the model’s call and selections proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boreham Wood win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.38
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.56
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Solihull win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 46.6% · @ 1.99
Edge
-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.87
1.27
0.53
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.58
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.83
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.87
1.25
0.62
1.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Solihull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.97
2.47
1.00
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
1.81
1.06
2.00
1.14
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
2.21
0.86
2.88
0.88
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.77-10.5%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.97+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.5%
Boreham Wood goals ↓
Solihull goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.7%
3.3%
1.1%
1
8.9%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.5%
7.1%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.0%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boreham Wood goals (down), columns = Solihull goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
Kings Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Boreham Wood is 0.45 points worse than Solihull in terms of average points per game (1.52 vs 1.98).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
Kings Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Boreham Wood is 0.77 goals worse than Solihull in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
Kings Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Boreham Wood is 0.11 goals better than Solihull in terms of goals conceded per game (0.91 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.42
0.50
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
0.67
0.40
0.62
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Solihull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.47
0.40
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
0.50
1.14
0.43
0.56
0.56
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.36
1.75
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.73
0.20
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.17
0.83
0.17
0.00
0.17
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.62
0.12
0.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Solihull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
0.56
0.86
0.71
1.11
0.44
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.50
1.12
0.50
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →