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Boreham Wood vs Wealdstone Result & Analysis

Date: 06/04/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
Vs
38%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Wealdstone
Wealdstone
England: National League
Referee: F Hallam

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boreham Wood win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.02
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.54
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone win✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.27
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L13L40W11D12L02L01L03L14L24LA·OLD13/02A·HAR17/02H·FYL24/02H·GAT02/03A·HAL09/03A·SOL12/03H·ALT16/03A·CHE23/03H·DAG29/03A·SOU01/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.871.471.471.132.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.212.001.141.571.292.43
vs Weaker (16)1.381.751.751.381.002.12
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WealdstoneWealdstone

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D03L32W11D21W01L11D14L01L01LA·WOK24/02A·ROC27/02A·YOR02/03A·SOU05/03A·FYL16/03H·BRO20/03H·KID23/03A·ALT26/03A·OXF29/03H·SOL01/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.531.711.571.001.50
vs Stronger (12)1.251.081.001.171.501.00
vs Similar (18)1.391.832.251.880.701.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 1.74-6.2%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 2.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
Boreham Wood goals ↓
Wealdstone goals →
01234
08.8%8.1%5.8%2.4%0.7%
18.9%14%7.8%3.2%1.0%
26.9%8.5%5.2%2.2%0.7%
33.1%3.8%2.3%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boreham Wood goals (down), columns = Wealdstone goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Boreham Wood is 0.09 points worse than Wealdstone in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Southend
1.52
Hartlepool
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Boreham Wood is 0.02 goals worse than Wealdstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Boreham Wood is 0.02 goals worse than Wealdstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Boreham Wood is 12.6 percentage points worse than Wealdstone in terms of average possession (43% vs 55%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D30W10W01L00D00D01L14L03LA·OLD13/02A·HAR17/02H·FYL24/02H·GAT02/03A·HAL09/03A·SOL12/03H·ALT16/03A·CHE23/03H·DAG29/03A·SOU01/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.030.600.930.671.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.711.140.711.140.711.14
vs Weaker (16)0.560.940.500.750.621.12
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WealdstoneWealdstone

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L11D10W10W00D10W11D01L00DA·WOK24/02A·ROC27/02A·YOR02/03A·SOU05/03A·FYL16/03H·BRO20/03H·KID23/03A·ALT26/03A·OXF29/03H·SOL01/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.701.000.930.440.50
vs Stronger (12)0.670.420.670.670.670.17
vs Similar (18)0.720.891.251.120.300.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L10W01L11D02L01L02L00D21WA·OLD13/02A·HAR17/02H·FYL24/02H·GAT02/03A·HAL09/03A·SOL12/03H·ALT16/03A·CHE23/03H·DAG29/03A·SOU01/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.870.530.471.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.500.860.430.430.571.29
vs Weaker (16)0.810.811.250.620.381.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WealdstoneWealdstone

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D21W01L11D01L01L03L00D01LA·WOK24/02A·ROC27/02A·YOR02/03A·SOU05/03A·FYL16/03H·BRO20/03H·KID23/03A·ALT26/03A·OXF29/03H·SOL01/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.710.640.561.00
vs Stronger (12)0.580.670.330.500.830.83
vs Similar (18)0.670.941.000.750.401.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards85.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.574.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards72.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
BW wins
1
Draws
2
WEA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Boreham Wood vs Wealdstone · H/A from BW
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23AWealdstone Vs BW1-1
15/04/23HBW Vs Wealdstone1-0
08/10/22AWealdstone Vs BW1-2
18/04/22AWealdstone Vs BW2-0
11/01/22HBW Vs Wealdstone1-0
10/04/21HBW Vs Wealdstone3-1
02/03/21AWealdstone Vs BW1-0

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/24ASouthend Vs BW4-2
29/03/24HBW Vs Dag and Red1-4
23/03/24AChesterfield Vs BW3-0
16/03/24HBW Vs Altrincham0-1
12/03/24ASolihull Vs BW2-0
09/03/24AHalifax Vs BW2-1
02/03/24HBW Vs Gateshead1-1
24/02/24HBW Vs Fylde4-0
17/02/24AHartlepool Vs BW3-1
13/02/24AOldham Vs BW2-1

WealdstoneWealdstone

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/24HWEA Vs Solihull0-1
29/03/24AOxford City Vs WEA1-0
26/03/24AAltrincham Vs WEA4-1
23/03/24HWEA Vs Kidderminster1-1
20/03/24HWEA Vs Bromley0-1
16/03/24AFylde Vs WEA1-2
05/03/24ASouthend Vs WEA1-1
02/03/24AYork Vs WEA2-3
27/02/24ARochdale Vs WEA3-0
24/02/24AWoking Vs WEA1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.08
HomeWWDLL1.23
AwayLLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%31%21%
AVG goals2.822.353.33
Over 1.5 %78%65%92%
Over 2.5 %52%31%75%
Over 3.5 %32%15%50%
Scored1.201.121.29
Conceded1.621.232.04
BTTS58%46%71%
Clean Sheet20%27%12%
Corners---
Cards3.483.273.71
Wealdstone
Wealdstone
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.04
HomeLLLDL1.40
AwayWDWLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%16%
AVG goals2.843.082.60
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.201.520.88
Conceded1.641.561.72
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards3.903.883.92

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead
4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red
4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde
4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet
4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster
4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking
4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City
4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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