Borussia Dortmund’s home form, averaging 2.83 goals scored and only 1.08 conceded against weaker opposition, makes the model rate a home win at 73%. Hamburg’s away record, 1.33 scored and 2.0 conceded versus stronger teams, underpins the 10% chance of an away victory. The model’s favourite result is a home win, reflected in the 73%home win probability, 18% draw, and 10% away win. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a 3-goal match, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Dortmund, a 11.2% chance. Dortmund’s recent 2-0 win over Werder Bremen fuels confidence, while Hamburg’s 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen shows they can hold their own away. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (99.0% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0% with a 2% edge), Under 7.5 (97.4% with a 2% edge), Home +2 handicap (97.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.9% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (94.7% with a 3% edge), and Under 6.5 (93.6% with a 1% edge).
Results analysis
Borussia Dortmund’s 3-game winning streak continued as the home side edged Hamburger SV 2-0, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The model had given Dortmund a 73% chance of triumph, and its favourite call proved correct. Every suggested selection from the model hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.9%, Under 7.5 at 97.4%, Home +2 handicap at 97.3%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.7%, and Under 6.5 at 93.6%. The final score of 2-0 matched the most likely outcome, and Dortmund’s solid home form and strong attack were decisive.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Borussia Dortmund win✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.36
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Draw✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied 18.0% · @ 5.25
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.48
Pinnacle
5.46
Marathonbet
5.40
Hamburger SV win✗ Miss
9.3%
Avg Implied 12.4% · @ 7.63
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
9.00
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Borussia Dortmund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.23
2.47
1.12
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (21)
2.38
1.05
2.83
1.08
1.78
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.53
1.53
1.27
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.71
1.00
1.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.48
1.73
1.18
0.92
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
@ 1.14+2.5%
Under 1.5
14.9%
@ 5.39-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Under
BetVictor
6.00
Unibet
5.60
888Sport
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.48+0.9%
Under 2.5
35.6%
@ 2.58-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Under
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.3%
@ 2.25+0.1%
Under 3.5
57.7%
@ 1.65-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.71-2.7%
No
48.2%
@ 2.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.76
Bet365
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
No
Betfair
2.15
888Sport
2.15
William Hil
2.15
BetVictor
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.4%@ 7.37+5.1%
3-0
9.5%@ 9.17+4.4%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.92+3.4%
1-0
8.4%@ 8.47+2.9%
1-1
8.1%@ 9.67+3.3%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.86+3.0%
4-0
5.9%@ 14.50+2.7%
4-1
4.8%@ 15.76+1.9%
Borussia Dortmund goals ↓
Hamburger SV goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
2.2%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.4%
8.1%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
2
11%
9.3%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.5%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.9%
4.8%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Borussia Dortmund goals (down), columns = Hamburger SV goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Borussia Dortmund is 1.03 points better than Hamburger SV in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund is 0.88 goals better than Hamburger SV in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Borussia Dortmund is 0.59 goals better than Hamburger SV in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Borussia Dortmund is 7.9 percentage points better than Hamburger SV in terms of average possession (53% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Borussia Dortmund
For 5.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.4 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
For 3.4 · Against 7.3 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Dortmund
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.7
8.3
3.4
2.7
4.2
22.1
21.3
23.0
vs Stronger (4)
8.5
9.5
7.5
2.5
1.5
3.5
26.8
25.0
28.5
vs Similar (11)
8.5
8.4
8.5
4.2
3.4
4.8
22.7
23.4
22.2
vs Weaker (35)
9.3
10.1
8.3
3.3
2.6
4.1
21.4
20.4
22.7
% over line
38%
50%
25%
44%
31%
58%
60%
54%
67%
% under line
62%
50%
75%
56%
69%
42%
40%
46%
33%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.1
5.1
4.9
5.3
23.8
23.5
24.1
vs Stronger (8)
10.4
10.5
10.2
4.4
4.8
4.0
22.5
23.2
21.8
vs Similar (31)
9.5
9.5
9.6
5.3
5.0
5.5
24.3
24.9
23.8
vs Weaker (11)
10.4
9.2
11.3
5.1
4.6
5.5
23.5
19.8
26.5
% over line
50%
46%
54%
72%
71%
73%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
28%
29%
27%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.1%
@ 1.72-0.9%
Under 9.5
46.9%
@ 2.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Under
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.0%
@ 1.65+0.4%
Under 3.5
43.0%
@ 2.15-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.58
Under
Superbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.14
1xBet
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.3%
@ 1.86-4.6%
Under 21.5
54.7%
@ 1.86+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.78
Under
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.80
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Borussia Dortmund or Draw✓ Hit
91.3%
Avg Implied 87.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
+4.3%
73%
17%
9%
covers Borussia Dortmund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Borussia Dortmund or Hamburger SV✓ Hit
84.0%
Avg Implied 82.5% · @ 1.15
Edge
+1.5%
73%
17%
9%
covers Borussia Dortmund + Hamburger SV
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Draw or Hamburger SV✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.11
Edge
-5.8%
73%
17%
9%
covers Draw + Hamburger SV
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.20
SBO
3.16
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Under
7.0%
@ 8.37-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Under
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.3%
@ 1.36+5.7%
Under
25.7%
@ 2.97-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.04
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
49.5%
@ 2.16+6.2%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.65-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Borussia Dortmund over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
27.6%
@ 3.98+4.2%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.22-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.45
Superbet
4.10
888Sport
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
56.6%
@ 1.58-2.2%
Under
43.4%
@ 2.26+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Betano
2.27
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.4%
@ 3.89-3.7%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.23+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.16
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 11.28-3.1%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.70
888Sport
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Hamburger SV over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 26.33-2.6%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
32.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Borussia Dortmund, so a minus line means Borussia Dortmund give that many goals of a start and Hamburger SV receive them. At -1, Borussia Dortmund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Borussia Dortmund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.74
0.82
0.82
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.24+1.4%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 3.86-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.0%
@ 2.17-1.5%
Under 1.5
58.0%
@ 1.66+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
SBO
2.28
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.7%
@ 4.76-4.0%
Under 2.5
84.3%
@ 1.17+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Betfair
4.80
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
68.5%
@ 1.44+3.5%
Under
31.5%
@ 2.67-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.40
Under
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.74
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.55
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
24.3%
@ 3.04-6.2%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.33+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 7.52-5.8%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.06+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 2.81-3.4%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.39+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.02
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 9.25-5.5%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 45.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Borussia Dortmund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.24
0.76
1.15
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.71
1.42
0.67
1.22
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.53
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.29
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.74
0.91
0.36
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
84.6%
@ 1.14+2.4%
Under 0.5
15.4%
@ 5.27-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
5.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
53.7%
@ 1.72-0.8%
Under 1.5
46.3%
@ 2.06+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.5%
@ 3.24-2.5%
Under 2.5
73.5%
@ 1.32+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
75.7%
@ 1.30+4.3%
Under
24.3%
@ 3.25-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 2.35-2.4%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.53+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
10Bet
2.30
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 5.21-2.7%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.13+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.40
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.5%
@ 2.28-4.2%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.57+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 7.80-5.3%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.05+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 19.75-3.8%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.6%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
91.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
91.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
10Bet
1.05
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.14
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
84.0%
1.15
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
79.6%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.5%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.22
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.7%
1.33
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.36
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home win
73.4%
1.36
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
72.8%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
72.4%
1.22
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
1.37
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.6%
1.43
1xBet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
+3.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Borussia Dortmund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Serhou Guirassy39%
Karim Adeyemi26%
Julian Brandt24%
Maximilian Beier23%
Emre Can19%
Ramy Bensebaini19%
Samuele Inacio14%
Nico Schlotterbeck14%
Yan Couto11%
Luca Reggiani11%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Felix Nmecha10%
Daniel Svensson9%
Carney Chukwuemeka8%
Fábio Silva8%
Waldemar Anton7%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Niklas Süle0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Reggiani33%
Emre Can31%
Niklas Süle31%
Samuele Inacio29%
Ramy Bensebaini28%
Julian Ryerson24%
Nico Schlotterbeck22%
Karim Adeyemi18%
Yan Couto15%
Waldemar Anton14%
Fábio Silva13%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Maximilian Beier9%
Marcel Sabitzer9%
Jobe Bellingham7%
Serhou Guirassy7%
Gregor Kobel6%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Felix Nmecha0%
Julian Brandt0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Filippo Mané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Julian Ryerson36%
Fábio Silva18%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Pascal Groß12%
Marcel Sabitzer12%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Ramy Bensebaini9%
Serhou Guirassy9%
Niklas Süle8%
Yan Couto7%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Jobe Bellingham4%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Emre Can0%
Salih Özcan0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Filippo Mané0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Serhou Guirassy24%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Fábio Silva5%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Carney Chukwuemeka3%
Niklas Süle0%
Emre Can0%
Ramy Bensebaini0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Yan Couto0%
Daniel Svensson0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Hamburger SV · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Vieira23%
Robert Glatzel20%
Luka Vušković20%
Albert Sambi Lokonga19%
Jean-Luc Dompé14%
Albert Grønbæk14%
Rayan Philippe13%
Bakery Jatta12%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer11%
Philip Otele11%
Yussuf Poulsen6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolás Capaldo4%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Miro Muheim0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Nicolai Remberg0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolás Capaldo38%
Nicolai Remberg38%
Philip Otele33%
Yussuf Poulsen25%
Daniel Elfadli23%
Miro Muheim23%
Aboubaka Soumahoro20%
Luka Vušković20%
Jonas Meffert17%
Jordan Torunarigha15%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit15%
Immanuel Pherai14%
Albert Sambi Lokonga12%
William Mikelbrencis12%
Fábio Vieira10%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes9%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili8%
Rayan Philippe7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer6%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Damion Downs0%
Otto Stange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Grønbæk29%
Fábio Vieira16%
Miro Muheim16%
William Mikelbrencis15%
Nicolás Capaldo12%
Philip Otele11%
Robert Glatzel10%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit8%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolai Remberg6%
Warmed Omari5%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili4%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Albert Sambi Lokonga0%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Rayan Philippe0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Luka Vušković0%
Otto Stange0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Vieira23%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer17%
Rayan Philippe10%
Miro Muheim10%
Jean-Luc Dompé10%
Nicolás Capaldo8%
Luka Vušković7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Robert Glatzel5%
Albert Sambi Lokonga4%
Nicolai Remberg3%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Philip Otele0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Fabio Baldé0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Borussia Dortmund's squad is €412m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€529m vs €117m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Borussia Dortmund's attack is €124m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€170m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Borussia Dortmund's midfield is €112m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€146m vs €34m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Borussia Dortmund's defence is €176m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€214m vs €37m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart