PythiaFootballBETA
Bravo’s defensive record at home is the first point of focus, conceding 0.67 goals per game against similarly strong opponents, while Maribor’s away form shows a higher average of 1.0 conceded. Both sides have similar offensive output, with Maribor scoring 0.6 away and Bravo 0.33 at home, hinting at a low-scoring affair. The model’s projection leans toward a home win, with a 34% chance, a draw at 32%, and an away win also at 34%. The expected total goals is 2.2, and the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8% chance.
The suggested picks reflect a tight match: Over 19.5 fouls (94.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (87.4%), Under 3.5 (82.1%) hit, Under 5.5 cards (80.5%), Under 11.5 corners (79.5%), Over 23.5 fouls (77.0%), and Over 2.5 cards (74.2%). Bravo’s recent form includes a win over Mura, while Maribor is riding a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over Nafta.
The upset came early as Maribor snatched a 0-1 away win, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was Bravo, with the model giving a 34% chance of a home victory; the call proved wrong. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 82.1% probability. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.8%, yet the match finished 0-1, a 10.0% chance outcome. The expected total of 2.2 goals was surpassed, and the final tally of one goal fell well below the 2-goal expectation. Bravo’s recent form, a win against Mura, did not translate into a victory, while Maribor’s strong away record proved decisive.
Bravo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 25% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.81 | 1.31 | 0.78 | 1.44 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 31% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Maribor goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 11% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 11% | 15% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
BravoMariborBravo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (8) | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 27.4 | 29.0 | 26.3 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | 4.0 | - | 4.0 | 25.0 | - | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (7) | 8.8 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 20% | 50% | 0% | 38% | 33% | 40% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 80% | 50% | 100% | 62% | 67% | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Maribor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (16) | 8.7 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 26.2 | 23.5 | 29.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 8.4 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 27.5 | 31.0 | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 10.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 25.0 | 16.0 | 34.0 |
| % over line | 40% | 60% | 20% | 31% | 11% | 57% | 75% | 50% | 100% |
| % under line | 60% | 40% | 80% | 69% | 89% | 43% | 25% | 50% | 0% |
Bravo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 62% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 56% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Bravo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.09 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 38% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Bravo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/08/22 | A | 0-4 | |
| 20/08/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/08/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/08/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 31/07/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 24/07/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/07/22 | A | 2-0 |
Maribor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/08/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 25/08/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/08/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/08/22 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/08/22 | A | 3-2 | |
| 11/08/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/08/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/08/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 31/07/22 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Olimpija Ljubljana | 36 | 73 | 64% | 2.0 | 60 | 39 | +21 | 2.8 | 67% | 44% | 25% | 9.1 | 43% | 4.4 | 57% | 27.5 | 87% | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 2 |  Celje | 36 | 67 | 53% | 1.9 | 53 | 34 | +19 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 19% | 9.7 | 43% | 4.2 | 61% | 24.6 | 78% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 | Maribor | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 70 | 43 | +27 | 3.1 | 83% | 58% | 39% | 8.9 | 35% | 4.3 | 52% | 25.0 | 73% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 4 |  NK Domzale | 36 | 52 | 36% | 1.4 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 2.6 | 72% | 44% | 28% | 7.7 | 17% | 5.1 | 78% | 28.1 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 5 |  Mura | 36 | 52 | 36% | 1.4 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 2.6 | 69% | 53% | 31% | 10.6 | 57% | 4.5 | 61% | 26.3 | 91% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 6 |  Koper | 36 | 50 | 39% | 1.4 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 19% | 9.1 | 52% | 3.8 | 52% | 24.0 | 78% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 52% |
| 7 |  Radomlje | 36 | 44 | 28% | 1.2 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 2.4 | 78% | 44% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Bravo | 36 | 36 | 25% | 1.0 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 2.1 | 58% | 31% | 14% | 8.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 57% | 27.5 | 83% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 9 |  Gorica | 38 | 28 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 2.5 | 74% | 37% | 24% | 9.4 | 52% | 4.1 | 56% | 26.2 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 10 |  Tabor Sežana | 36 | 24 | 8% | 0.7 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 2.6 | 72% | 44% | 31% | 9.3 | 38% | 3.2 | 33% | 22.2 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Aluminij | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 10.5 | 50% | 6.0 | 100% | 33.5 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |