The contest between Bravo and Maribor is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 29% and 40%, while a draw is 31%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Bravo’s home form shows an average of 1.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Maribor’s away numbers are 0.75 for and 1.12 against. The suggested picks, each with its own probability, are: Over 19.5 fouls92.8%, Over 21.5 fouls85.1%, Under 5.5 cards80.1%, Under 3.579.2% (miss), Over 2.5 cards74.6%, Over 23.5 fouls73.6%, and Under 11.5 corners72.9%. Bravo entered the match on a win, while Maribor was on a two-game winning streak. The model’s selection remains an away win.
Results analysis
The win for Maribor extends their two-game winning run and the model’s prediction of an away victory proved correct. The final score was 2-3, matching the actual result. The pre-match favourite was an away win at 40%, and the model’s selection was right. The suggested picks were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 85.1%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 80.1%, Under 3.5 missed at 79.2%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.6%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 73.6%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 72.9%. The most likely total of 2 goals came in, and the most probable scoreline of 1-1 did not occur.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bravo win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✓ Hit
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bravo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
1.08
1.17
0.75
0.64
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.09
1.09
0.82
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.10
1.93
1.13
1.60
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
1.12
0.88
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (14)
2.71
1.21
2.86
1.43
2.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
Bravo goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.9%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.4%
6.9%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bravo goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
NK Domzale
1.44
Mura
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Bravo is 0.72 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
NK Domzale
1.39
Mura
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Bravo is 1.03 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Bravo is 0.06 goals better than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Bravo is 1.2 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bravo
For 4.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
For 6.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bravo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
8.8
9.8
8.0
1.7
1.1
2.3
26.9
26.8
27.0
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
-
10.0
2.3
0.0
3.5
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (23)
8.6
9.8
7.3
1.7
1.2
2.1
27.2
26.8
27.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
50%
25%
23%
8%
36%
86%
67%
100%
% under line
64%
50%
75%
77%
92%
64%
14%
33%
0%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
9.2
9.8
8.4
2.6
2.3
2.9
25.2
23.9
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
8.5
9.0
7.8
2.7
2.9
2.6
25.5
26.5
23.5
vs Weaker (15)
10.2
11.2
9.2
2.3
1.5
3.3
25.0
21.2
28.8
% over line
40%
45%
33%
29%
22%
38%
86%
75%
100%
% under line
60%
55%
67%
71%
78%
62%
14%
25%
0%
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.3
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.9
Gorica
9.9
Celje
9.5
Maribor
9.2
Tabor Sežana
9.1
Koper
9.1
Bravo
8.8
NK Domzale
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
4.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Mura
4.6
Celje
4.5
Maribor
4.3
Koper
4.0
Gorica
3.6
Tabor Sežana
3.6
Bravo
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.1
Bravo
26.9
Mura
26.1
Gorica
25.4
Maribor
25.2
Celje
25.1
Koper
23.1
Tabor Sežana
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.5%
Under 9.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bravo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.50
0.58
0.33
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.48
0.55
0.36
0.17
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.27
0.53
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.31
1.12
0.38
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.64
1.43
0.71
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bravo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.42
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.55
0.45
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.19
0.69
0.00
0.50
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.57
1.43
0.71
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Bravo's squad is €5m less valuable than Maribor's (€4m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Bravo's attack is €4m less valuable than Maribor's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Bravo and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Bravo's defence is €1m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →