PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Bravo and Maribor is finely balanced, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. Home and away win probabilities sit at 33% and 37% respectively, while a draw is 31%. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% probability.
Bravo, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 0.67 conceded. Maribor, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. This suggests a modest edge for Maribor in both attack and defense.
The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 79.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.0%, and Over 2.5 cards at 75.4%. Bravo’s recent form shows a win, loss, draw, draw, win, and Maribor is on a two-game winning streak. The match is poised for a tight contest, with the away side slightly favored.
The win extends Bravo’s recent run, but Maribor’s two-game winning streak at home proved decisive. The final score was 0-1, an away victory that matched the model’s pick and its 37% probability. The model’s selection was correct, and the predicted total of 2.3 goals fell short of the actual 1. The only other suggestion was Under 3.5, with a 79.8% chance, and it hit as the match finished with a single goal. The favoured result landed and the selections largely came in, confirming the model’s accuracy for this Slovenia 1. SNL fixture.
Bravo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.97 | 1.14 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 0.93 | 2.24 | 0.82 | 1.38 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.52 | 1.10 | 1.83 | 0.92 | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 2.67 | 0.56 | 3.20 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Maribor goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 15% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
BravoMariborBravo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 21.3 | 21.0 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (42) | 10.9 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 21.0 | 20.8 | 21.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 68% | 90% | 44% | 20% | 21% | 19% | 47% | 30% | 67% |
| % under line | 32% | 10% | 56% | 80% | 79% | 81% | 53% | 70% | 33% |
Maribor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 24.5 | 25.3 | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 8.2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 25.7 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 8.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 35% | 29% | 40% | 26% | 19% | 33% | 71% | 71% | 70% |
| % under line | 65% | 71% | 60% | 74% | 81% | 67% | 29% | 29% | 30% |
Bravo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.33 | 0.22 | 1.60 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Bravo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.56 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.60 | 1.24 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.90 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.60 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/02/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/10/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/08/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 20/05/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 29/11/22 | A | 3-0 |
Bravo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/09/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 31/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/08/24 | A | 2-3 | |
| 12/08/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/24 | H | 1-3 |
Maribor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/09/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 22/09/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/09/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/09/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 01/09/24 | H | 4-1 | |
| 29/08/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/08/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/08/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/08/24 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Olimpija Ljubljana | 36 | 74 | 58% | 2.1 | 63 | 20 | +43 | 2.3 | 75% | 36% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Maribor | 36 | 67 | 53% | 1.9 | 64 | 32 | +32 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 22% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 3 |  Koper | 36 | 66 | 53% | 1.8 | 60 | 35 | +25 | 2.6 | 69% | 47% | 28% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 |  Celje | 36 | 61 | 47% | 1.7 | 76 | 51 | +25 | 3.5 | 81% | 69% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 5 | Bravo | 36 | 55 | 39% | 1.5 | 52 | 44 | +8 | 2.7 | 75% | 47% | 31% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 |  Primorje | 36 | 43 | 31% | 1.2 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 |  Mura | 36 | 35 | 25% | 1.0 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 2.4 | 67% | 42% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 |  Radomlje | 36 | 35 | 28% | 1.0 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 2.9 | 75% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 |  NK Domzale | 38 | 32 | 21% | 0.8 | 40 | 70 | -30 | 2.9 | 74% | 61% | 34% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 |  Nafta | 36 | 28 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 69 | -36 | 2.8 | 75% | 53% | 31% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 11 |  Triglav | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | - |