Bray Wanderers look set to edge Finn Harps in a high-scoring encounter, with the model favouring a home win at 51%. The expected total of 3.5 goals suggests a lively game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.8% chance. Bray’s home form shows they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against similar opposition, while Finn Harps, on the road, struggle to find the net, scoring only 1.12 and conceding 2.38. The match-result probabilities are 51% for a home win, 23% for a draw and 26% for an away win. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 87.5%. Bray’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and Finn’s five-match losing streak hint at defensive frailties that could keep the scoreline tight, yet the attacking numbers point to plenty of chances.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Bray Wanderers, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s home win call wrong. The model had given Bray a 51% chance of victory, while the probability of a draw was 23% and an away win 26%. The suggested pick Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.5% probability, hit as the game saw two goals. Bray’s recent form, after two straight defeats, was still a mixed run of LLWLL, whereas Finn Harps were on a five-match losing streak (LLLLL). The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of three goals, though the exact scoreline was not the top probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bray Wanderers win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.90
1.47
1.93
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.50
1.14
2.43
0.86
2.57
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.46
1.57
1.43
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.23
1.20
1.67
1.07
2.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.77
0.50
2.17
1.00
3.29
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.82
1.67
1.33
1.12
2.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.8%
No
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
9.8%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.7%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.6%
Bray Wanderers goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
3.4%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
1
5.2%
9.8%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.3%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.4%
6.4%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.3%
3.3%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bray Wanderers goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galway United
2.61
Waterford
1.90
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Wexford
1.42
Athlone Town
1.26
Treaty United
1.22
Bray Wanderers
1.22
Longford Town
1.11
Finn Harps
1.03
Kerry
0.28
Bray Wanderers is 0.19 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galway United
2.72
Waterford
2.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.36
Bray Wanderers
1.33
Wexford
1.29
Longford Town
1.08
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.81
Bray Wanderers is 0.25 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galway United
0.50
Waterford
0.90
Wexford
1.34
Cobh Ramblers
1.36
Longford Town
1.42
Treaty United
1.69
Athlone Town
1.71
Bray Wanderers
1.72
Finn Harps
2.06
Kerry
2.53
Bray Wanderers is 0.33 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 2.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.93
0.71
0.86
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.62
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.47
0.73
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.38
0.17
1.00
0.14
1.71
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.82
0.67
0.56
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.73
1.27
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.57
0.43
1.57
0.43
1.57
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.85
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.73
0.93
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.38
0.33
1.17
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (17)
0.76
1.00
1.00
0.78
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Finn Harps have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WAT (6)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Galway United
Waterford
Cobh Ramblers
Wexford
Athlone Town
Treaty United
Longford Town
Kerry