Breidablik’s recent draw against KR Reykjavik and Fram Reykjavik’s win over Stjarnan set the stage for a tight contest, yet the model’s edge lies in the away under-2.5-half-time goals pick, boasting a 98.4% probability and a 9% advantage over the market. The model favours a Breidablik victory, assigning a 45% chance to a home win, 24% to a draw, and 31% to an away win. The expected total is 3.4 goals, with the most likely total goal count being three, which carries a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.7% chance. Breidablik, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while Fram Reykjavik, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 7.5 (97.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (88.8%).
Results analysis
Fram Reykjavik stunned the home side with a 4-3 victory, extending their two-game winning streak after a recent defeat for Breiðablik. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 45 % chance but the model was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 % missed, Under 7.5 at 97.9 % hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.2 % hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1 % hit, Under 6.5 at 94.6 % missed, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1 % hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.3 % missed, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 88.8 % missed. The match finished 3-4 in favour of the visitors.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Breidablik win✗ Miss
44.8%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.37
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.47
Betfair
2.45
888Sport
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.42
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.81
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Dafabet
3.95
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Fram Reykjavik win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.41
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Dafabet
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.46
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Breidablik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.53
1.69
1.15
1.47
1.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.64
1.67
1.17
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
1.23
1.67
1.00
1.71
1.43
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fram Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.63
2.40
1.47
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
1.75
1.88
2.00
1.75
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.86
1.62
2.20
1.50
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
@ 1.06-0.6%
Under 1.5
14.3%
@ 6.71+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.1%
@ 1.28-6.6%
Under 2.5
34.9%
@ 3.24+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.1%
@ 1.73-10.4%
Under 3.5
56.9%
@ 1.99+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
SBO
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.5%
@ 1.28-5.0%
No
33.5%
@ 3.23+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
No
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.34
888Sport
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 8.95+5.6%
2-1
9.0%@ 9.64+4.2%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.79+2.7%
2-2
6.8%@ 9.33+1.9%
2-0
6.0%@ 17.72+3.4%
3-1
5.5%@ 15.06+2.5%
1-0
5.5%@ 16.88+2.8%
0-0
4.5%@ 25.85+2.7%
Breidablik goals ↓
Fram Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.3%
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
1
5.5%
11%
7.3%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.7%
5.5%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Breidablik goals (down), columns = Fram Reykjavik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Breidablik is 1.00 points worse than Fram Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Breidablik is 1.31 goals worse than Fram Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Breidablik is 0.03 goals better than Fram Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Breidablik or Draw✗ Miss
69.3%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
+7.6%
45%
24%
31%
covers Breidablik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.53
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Breidablik or Fram Reykjavik✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-1.5%
45%
24%
31%
covers Breidablik + Fram Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Draw or Fram Reykjavik✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied 61.3% · @ 1.50
Edge
-6.1%
45%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Fram Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
888Sport
1.53
SBO
1.52
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Breidablik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.2%
@ 1.12+2.3%
Under
15.8%
@ 5.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
Under
Superbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Breidablik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.0%
@ 1.62-1.7%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.13+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
Breidablik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.1%
@ 2.96-2.9%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.33+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.08
888Sport
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Breidablik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 6.15-3.5%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.09+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
@ 1.11-4.7%
Under
22.2%
@ 5.25+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
5.75
1xBet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 1.63-12.1%
Under
55.5%
@ 2.12+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.25
888Sport
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.13
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.3%
@ 2.94-11.9%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.33+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Fram Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
@ 6.07-8.6%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.09+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Breidablik, so a minus line means Breidablik give that many goals of a start and Fram Reykjavik receive them. At -1, Breidablik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Breidablik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Breidablik)Actual: Fram Reykjavik
Breidablik -2
11.3%
@ 8.13+0.3%
Draw -2
13.8%
@ 7.00+1.1%
Fram Reykjavik +2
74.9%
@ 1.17-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Marathonbet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Away
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Handicap -1 (Breidablik)Actual: Fram Reykjavik
Breidablik -1
25.1%
@ 4.04+3.4%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 4.49+0.3%
Fram Reykjavik +1
55.2%
@ 1.48-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.55
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.80
Away
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Handicap +1 (Breidablik)Actual: Draw
Breidablik +1
69.3%
@ 1.50+11.7%
Draw +1
16.0%
@ 4.42-3.6%
Fram Reykjavik -1
14.8%
@ 3.80-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.49
Unibet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.25
Handicap +2 (Breidablik)Actual: Breidablik
Breidablik +2
85.2%
@ 1.18+9.9%
Draw +2
9.2%
@ 6.73-4.0%
Fram Reykjavik -2
5.6%
@ 7.70-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw
Marathonbet
7.20
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Away
Marathonbet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Breidablik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.54
0.69
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.69
0.50
0.83
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fram Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.80
1.07
0.87
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.76
0.90
0.90
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.6%
@ 1.17-5.7%
Under 0.5
26.4%
@ 4.47+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
William Hil
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.4%
@ 1.84-10.3%
Under 1.5
59.6%
@ 1.88+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.91
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Under
Betfair
2.00
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 3.62-10.2%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.24+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 1.65-6.6%
Under
50.1%
@ 2.13+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.03
Breidablik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.4%
@ 4.07-7.2%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.19+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Breidablik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 8.50-7.0%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.04+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.6%
@ 1.65-9.9%
Under
53.4%
@ 2.14+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.07
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.2%
@ 4.08-11.4%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.19+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.05
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.6%
@ 9.50-8.1%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Breidablik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.15
0.46
0.76
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.64
1.17
0.67
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.54
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fram Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
1.33
0.60
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.88
1.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.86
1.30
0.60
0.82
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.09-5.9%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 6.50+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.2%
@ 1.48-15.2%
Under 1.5
52.8%
@ 2.45+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
William Hil
2.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.2%
@ 2.47-14.2%
Under 2.5
76.8%
@ 1.48+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.1%
@ 1.42-8.9%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.64+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.70
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Breidablik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.9%
@ 2.97-12.2%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.34+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.82
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Breidablik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 7.05-7.2%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.06+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.2%
@ 1.42-11.8%
Under
46.8%
@ 2.64+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 2.97-10.6%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.34+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 7.00-9.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.06+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.6%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.09
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.06
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.19
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
88.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.06
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Unibet
1.19
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.24
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+10.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.6%
1.19
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.34
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-
-
+12.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
1.33
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
+11.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.09
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.34
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
-
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.8%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.5%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
75.3%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+10.6%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
74.9%
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.17
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.9%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+2.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Breidablik · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson25%
Kristinn Jónsson20%
Davíð Ingvarsson20%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristinn Steindorsson33%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson33%
Damir Muminović20%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Óli Valur Ómarsson33%
Gabriel Snaer20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson33%
Aron Bjarnason20%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Óli Valur Ómarsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Breidablik and Fram Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Breidablik and Fram Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Breidablik and Fram Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Breidablik and Fram Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →