Breidablik are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 68% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 14% for KR Reykjavik to take the match. The 3.6 expected goals and a 21% chance of a 3-goal total point to a lively encounter, yet the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 9.4% probability. Breidablik have been prolific at home, averaging 2.78 goals scored and conceding only 0.67 against opponents of similar strength, while KR Reykjavik, on the road, manage 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include an 88.1% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 75.6% chance of over 8.5 corners. The recent form narrative shows Breidablik struggling after two straight defeats, yet their home dominance and the venue advantage keep the odds firmly in their favour.
Results analysis
The upset came early as KR Reykjavik snatched a 0-1 away win, ending Breiðablik’s run of two straight defeats. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 68% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 88.1% probability, missed as the match produced only one goal. The final score was 0-1, an away victory. Breiðablik’s recent form showed a string of losses, while KR Reykjavik remained unbeaten in their last five. The expected total of 3.6 goals and the most likely 3-goal outcome were not realised.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Breidablik win✗ Miss
67.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Breidablik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.10
2.93
0.87
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
2.39
1.11
2.78
0.67
2.00
1.56
vs Weaker (10)
2.50
0.70
3.60
0.80
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.58
1.54
1.46
1.08
1.69
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
0.50
1.50
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.65
1.30
1.70
1.00
1.60
1.60
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.6%
Under 2.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.7%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.9%
3-0
7.3%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
5.1%
4-1
5.0%
Breidablik goals ↓
KR Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
2.2%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
1
6.2%
8.2%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
2
8.7%
9.4%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.3%
7.9%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
4
4.6%
5.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Breidablik goals (down), columns = KR Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.33
KA Akureyri
1.96
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.78
KR Reykjavik
1.41
Stjarnan
1.37
Keflavik
1.37
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.19
Fram Reykjavik
1.15
FH hafnarfjordur
0.93
IA Akranes
0.93
Leiknir R.
0.78
Breidablik is 0.93 points better than KR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.44
Keflavik
2.07
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.96
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
Stjarnan
1.63
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.59
KR Reykjavik
1.56
FH hafnarfjordur
1.33
IA Akranes
1.33
Leiknir R.
1.04
Breidablik is 0.89 goals better than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.11
KR Reykjavik
1.48
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.52
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Keflavik
1.78
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Stjarnan
1.93
Fram Reykjavik
2.33
IA Akranes
2.33
Leiknir R.
2.44
Breidablik is 0.48 goals better than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Breidablik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
1.00
0.27
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.50
0.89
0.22
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.20
1.40
0.20
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.69
0.62
0.31
1.00
1.08
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
0.60
0.30
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Breidablik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.67
1.93
0.60
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.61
1.89
0.44
1.33
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.50
2.20
0.60
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.85
0.85
0.77
0.69
0.92
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.75
1.10
0.70
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Breidablik · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson25%
Kristinn Jónsson20%
Davíð Ingvarsson20%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristinn Steindorsson33%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson33%
Damir Muminović20%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Óli Valur Ómarsson33%
Gabriel Snaer20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson33%
Aron Bjarnason20%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Óli Valur Ómarsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
Breidablik and KR Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
Breidablik and KR Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
Breidablik and KR Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
LR (9)
€0m
Breidablik and KR Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KA Akureyri
Vikingur Reykjavik
Keflavik
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Fram Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
IA Akranes
Leiknir R.