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Breidablik vs Stjarnan Result & Analysis

Date: 23/04/2025
Time: 19:15
Final 2-1
Breidablik
Breidablik
Vs
54%
23%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Breidablik win✓ Hit
54.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BreidablikBreidablik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W30W13L11D50W60W32W20W24L50WH·STJ19/10A·VIK27/10H·FRA04/02H·FYL08/02A·KA 15/02H·VÖL22/02A·NJA27/02H·AFT05/04A·FRA13/04H·FJO18/04
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.401.202.691.122.071.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)2.391.062.401.002.381.12
vs Weaker (12)2.421.423.171.331.671.50
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L32W32W60W14L11D13L21W21W33DA·BRE19/10H·FH 26/10H·IBV08/02A·SEL11/02H·KEF25/02A·LEI01/03H·KR 09/03H·FH 07/04H·IA 14/04H·NJA18/04
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.632.061.561.931.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.741.791.621.881.821.73
vs Weaker (11)2.451.362.501.252.331.67
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
1-0
6.0%
3-0
5.1%
Breidablik goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
01234
04.2%3.4%2.9%1.3%0.4%
16.0%10.0%6.0%2.6%0.9%
27.2%9.5%6.3%2.8%0.9%
35.1%6.7%4.4%1.9%0.6%
42.6%3.5%2.3%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Breidablik goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.67
Stjarnan
1.56
Breidablik
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.44
Fram Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.26
FH hafnarfjordur
1.22
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.22
KR Reykjavik
1.15
Vestri
1.07
Afturelding
1.00
Breidablik and Stjarnan are level in average points per game (both 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
2.26
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.15
KR Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Breidablik
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.67
Fram Reykjavik
1.52
IA Akranes
1.37
Afturelding
1.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.26
Vestri
0.96
Breidablik is 0.15 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.85).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.37
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
Breidablik
1.56
Vestri
1.63
Stjarnan
1.67
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Afturelding
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.81
IA Akranes
1.85
KR Reykjavik
2.30
Breidablik is 0.11 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BreidablikBreidablik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D10W20W40W11D20W20W10WH·STJ19/10A·VIK27/10H·FRA04/02H·FYL08/02A·KA 15/02H·VÖL22/02A·NJA27/02H·AFT05/04A·FRA13/04H·FJO18/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.471.060.560.860.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.830.390.800.500.880.25
vs Weaker (12)1.170.581.500.670.830.50
Clean sheet %60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D22D22D40W02L00D01L00D11D21WA·BRE19/10H·FH 26/10H·IBV08/02A·SEL11/02H·KEF25/02A·LEI01/03H·KR 09/03H·FH 07/04H·IA 14/04H·NJA18/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.810.750.640.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.680.580.620.750.730.45
vs Weaker (11)0.820.731.000.750.330.67
Clean sheet %53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BreidablikBreidablik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W20W02L01L30W20W21W00D04L40WH·STJ19/10A·VIK27/10H·FRA04/02H·FYL08/02A·KA 15/02H·VÖL22/02A·NJA27/02H·AFT05/04A·FRA13/04H·FJO18/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.731.620.561.210.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.560.671.600.501.500.88
vs Weaker (12)1.250.831.670.670.831.00
Clean sheet %47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W10W20W12L11D12L21W10W12LA·BRE19/10H·FH 26/10H·IBV08/02A·SEL11/02H·KEF25/02A·LEI01/03H·KR 09/03H·FH 07/04H·IA 14/04H·NJA18/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.001.250.811.291.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.051.211.001.121.091.27
vs Weaker (11)1.640.641.500.502.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Breidablik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson25%
Kristinn Jónsson20%
Davíð Ingvarsson20%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristinn Steindorsson33%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson33%
Damir Muminović20%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Óli Valur Ómarsson33%
Gabriel Snaer20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson33%
Aron Bjarnason20%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Óli Valur Ómarsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
Breidablik and Stjarnan have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Breidablik and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
Breidablik and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Breidablik and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
BRE wins
2
Draws
2
STJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Breidablik vs Stjarnan · H/A from BRE
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24HBRE Vs Stjarnan2-1
11/08/24AStjarnan Vs BRE2-2
21/05/24HBRE Vs Stjarnan2-1
08/10/23HBRE Vs Stjarnan0-2
29/07/23HBRE Vs Stjarnan1-1
04/05/23AStjarnan Vs BRE0-2
03/10/22HBRE Vs Stjarnan3-0
07/08/22AStjarnan Vs BRE5-2

BreidablikBreidablik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25HBRE Vs Fjolnir5-0
13/04/25AFram Reykjavik Vs BRE4-2
05/04/25HBRE Vs Afturelding2-0
27/02/25ANjardvik Vs BRE2-3
22/02/25HBRE Vs Völsungur6-0
15/02/25AKA Akureyri Vs BRE0-5
08/02/25HBRE Vs Fylkir1-1
04/02/25HBRE Vs Fram Reykjavik1-3
27/10/24AVikingur Reykjavik Vs BRE0-3
19/10/24HBRE Vs Stjarnan2-1

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25HSTJ Vs Njardvik3-3
14/04/25HSTJ Vs IA Akranes2-1
07/04/25HSTJ Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-1
09/03/25HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik1-3
01/03/25ALeiknir R. Vs STJ1-1
25/02/25HSTJ Vs Keflavik1-4
11/02/25ASelfoss Vs STJ0-6
08/02/25HSTJ Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar3-2
26/10/24HSTJ Vs FH hafnarfjordur3-2
19/10/24ABreidablik Vs STJ2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Breidablik
Breidablik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.94
HomeLDWWW2.00
AwayWWWWL1.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%61%59%
AVG goals3.643.713.55
Over 1.5 %92%100%82%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %54%54%55%
Scored2.362.542.14
Conceded1.281.181.41
BTTS60%68%50%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners11.6713.009.00
Cards6.676.008.00
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWD1.62
HomeLLWWD2.08
AwayDDLWD1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%64%28%
AVG goals3.543.683.40
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %66%72%60%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.882.161.60
Conceded1.661.521.80
BTTS68%64%72%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2757
63%
2.1
5831+27
3.3
85%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2745
48%
1.7
6146+15
4.0
100%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.7
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5045+5
3.5
93%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.7
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2742
41%
1.6
4642+4
3.3
89%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.6
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2739
41%
1.4
4549-4
3.5
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.8
-
6Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2736
37%
1.3
4140+1
3.0
85%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.5
-
7IA AkranesIA Akranes2734
41%
1.3
3750-13
3.2
81%
63%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2733
30%
1.2
4946+3
3.5
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.81.7
-
9IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2733
33%
1.2
3437-3
2.6
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.31.4
-
10KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2731
30%
1.1
5562-7
4.3
93%
85%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.02.3
-
11VestriVestri2729
30%
1.1
2644-18
2.6
78%
33%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.6
-
12AftureldingAfturelding2727
22%
1.0
3646-10
3.0
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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