Breidablik host Valur Reykjavik at the Úrvalsdeild on August 9, 2026. Recent form suggests a challenging match for both teams, with Breidablik coming off a defeat and Valur Reykjavik after two straight defeats. The data indicates a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 10.8% of the time.
Breidablik's recent home form shows they score an average of 2.33 goals and concede 1.11 goals per match against similar opponents. Valur Reykjavik, on the other hand, score an average of 1.5 goals and concede 2.0 goals per match away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is a Home win, with a 54% chance of occurring. The draw percentage is 24%, while the away win percentage is 22%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals has an 84.1% chance of happening.
Results analysis
In a major upset, Valur Reykjavik stunned Breidablik with a 1-3 away win. This result extends Valur Reykjavik's winning streak and marks a significant shift in momentum, as they had been coming off a win. The pre-match favourite, Breidablik, was predicted to win by the model, which assigned them a 54% probability of success. However, the model's call was incorrect, as Breidablik failed to deliver. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Breidablik to win was not the only one to miss the mark, as the model also suggested Over 1.5 would hit, but it did not. However, Over 1.5 did hit, with a probability of 84.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Breidablik win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied 56.6% · @ 1.60
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.64
Dafabet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.28
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.68
Dafabet
4.50
Betfair
4.40
10Bet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Valur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
22.4%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.11
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.36
Pinnacle
4.33
Betano
4.25
Betfair
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Breidablik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.57
1.86
1.36
1.38
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.50
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.42
1.80
0.80
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
1.50
2.00
1.57
1.71
1.43
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.87
2.19
1.62
1.21
2.14
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.94
1.83
2.40
1.50
1.38
2.25
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
1.90
2.20
1.80
0.80
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
@ 1.05-2.9%
Under 1.5
15.9%
@ 7.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
888Sport
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.4%
@ 1.26-10.3%
Under 2.5
37.6%
@ 3.36+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.2%
@ 1.71-14.0%
Under 3.5
59.8%
@ 2.02+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.76
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
SBO
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.1%
@ 1.32-7.4%
No
37.9%
@ 3.01+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.33
No
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 9.67+6.0%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.30+4.2%
2-0
7.9%@ 11.88+4.0%
1-0
7.0%@ 14.20+3.7%
3-1
6.4%@ 10.09+1.9%
1-2
6.0%@ 13.78+2.7%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.51+1.6%
3-0
5.2%@ 15.04+2.2%
Breidablik goals ↓
Valur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.0%
11%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.7%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.2%
6.4%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.6%
3.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Breidablik goals (down), columns = Valur Reykjavik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Breidablik is 0.29 points better than Valur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Breidablik is 0.61 goals worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Breidablik is 0.68 goals better than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 2.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Breidablik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.64
0.71
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.40
0.43
1.43
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.94
1.00
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.90
1.20
1.20
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Breidablik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.21
0.64
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
1.20
0.40
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.79
1.29
0.71
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.25
0.62
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.83
1.50
0.60
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.1%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Breidablik · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson25%
Kristinn Jónsson20%
Davíð Ingvarsson20%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristinn Steindorsson33%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson33%
Damir Muminović20%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson17%
Óli Valur Ómarsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Óli Valur Ómarsson33%
Gabriel Snaer20%
Viktor Karl Einarsson17%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson17%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Aron Bjarnason0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson33%
Aron Bjarnason20%
Kristinn Jónsson0%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Óli Valur Ómarsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Valgeir Valgeirsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson0%
Gabriel Snaer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Breidablik and Valur Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Breidablik and Valur Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Breidablik and Valur Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Breidablik and Valur Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Keflavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Vikingur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
Stjarnan
Thor Akureyri
KA Akureyri
IBV Vestmannaeyjar