This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.93
1.00
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.33
3.00
2.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.14
1.85
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.3%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.1%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
Brentford goals ↓
Aston Villa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
7.0%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.0%
4.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brentford goals (down), columns = Aston Villa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Brentford is 0.25 points better than Aston Villa in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Brentford and Aston Villa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Brentford is 0.25 goals better than Aston Villa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brentford
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
For 5.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 12.9 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.3
11.0
3.6
3.7
3.5
18.9
18.1
19.7
vs Stronger (9)
12.4
10.6
14.8
3.7
3.4
4.0
16.8
17.6
15.8
vs Similar (37)
10.2
10.2
10.2
3.9
4.4
3.5
19.5
18.3
20.5
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
64%
70%
50%
48%
52%
29%
23%
35%
% under line
33%
36%
30%
50%
52%
48%
71%
77%
65%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
22.9
22.4
23.5
vs Stronger (5)
10.4
9.5
11.0
3.8
3.5
4.0
20.6
19.5
21.3
vs Similar (36)
9.9
10.5
9.3
3.7
3.6
3.7
22.6
22.2
23.1
vs Weaker (9)
12.6
11.0
13.8
3.1
2.5
3.6
26.1
25.3
26.8
% over line
62%
50%
74%
60%
58%
62%
53%
50%
57%
% under line
38%
50%
26%
40%
42%
38%
47%
50%
43%
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Coventry
11.3
Tottenham
11.3
Newcastle
11.3
Portsmouth
11.0
Luton
10.9
Doncaster
10.9
Sheffield Weds
10.9
Brentford
10.8
Huddersfield
10.8
Bournemouth
10.8
Sheffield United
10.8
Harrogate
10.7
QPR
10.7
Bromley
10.6
Crawley Town
10.6
Aston Villa
10.5
Barnsley
10.5
Oldham
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Millwall
10.4
Reading
10.3
Hull
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.3
Ipswich
10.3
Stoke
10.2
Southampton
10.2
Norwich
10.2
Derby
10.2
Everton
10.1
Watford
10.1
West Brom
10.1
Oxford
10.1
Middlesbrough
10.1
Fulham
10.1
Port Vale
10.1
Newport County
10.0
West Ham
10.0
Crystal Palace
10.0
Grimsby
10.0
Leicester
9.9
Chesterfield
9.9
Lincoln
9.9
Walsall
9.9
Barnet
9.9
Rotherham
9.9
Peterboro
9.9
Plymouth
9.9
Barrow
9.9
Bristol Rvs
9.8
Cheltenham
9.8
Leeds
9.8
Wigan
9.8
Sunderland
9.7
Blackburn
9.7
Stevenage
9.7
Swindon
9.7
Chelsea
9.7
Bristol City
9.7
Bradford
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Cardiff
9.7
Wolves
9.7
Manchester City
9.7
Exeter
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Brighton
9.6
Swansea
9.6
Arsenal
9.6
Burton
9.6
Blackpool
9.5
Manchester United
9.5
Preston
9.5
Fleetwood Town
9.5
Salford
9.5
Crewe
9.5
Charlton
9.5
Bolton
9.5
Wrexham
9.5
Colchester
9.4
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.3
Wycombe
9.2
Burnley
9.1
Birmingham
9.1
Northampton
9.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.0
Accrington
8.9
Tranmere
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Stockport
8.8
Gillingham
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
5.1
Bournemouth
5.1
Accrington
5.0
Gillingham
4.7
Watford
4.6
Crewe
4.6
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Bradford
4.6
Colchester
4.5
Newcastle
4.4
Aston Villa
4.4
Chelsea
4.4
Brighton
4.4
Sunderland
4.4
Chesterfield
4.3
Grimsby
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Salford
4.3
Wolves
4.3
Portsmouth
4.2
Crawley Town
4.2
Crystal Palace
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Cambridge
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Shrewsbury
4.1
Barrow
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Notts County
4.0
Peterboro
4.0
Sheffield United
4.0
Ipswich
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Liverpool
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Southampton
3.9
Preston
3.9
Brentford
3.9
Walsall
3.9
West Brom
3.9
Stevenage
3.9
Doncaster
3.9
Stockport
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Bromley
3.9
Tottenham
3.8
Exeter
3.8
Barnet
3.8
Port Vale
3.8
Coventry
3.8
Charlton
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.8
Middlesbrough
3.8
Wigan
3.8
AFC Wimbledon
3.8
Wycombe
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Bristol Rvs
3.8
Fulham
3.8
Luton
3.8
Birmingham
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Barnsley
3.8
Burton
3.8
Arsenal
3.7
Northampton
3.7
Burnley
3.7
QPR
3.7
Huddersfield
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Cardiff
3.7
Swansea
3.6
Leyton Orient
3.6
Oxford
3.6
Everton
3.6
Swindon
3.5
Newport County
3.5
Derby
3.5
Sheffield Weds
3.5
Hull
3.5
Plymouth
3.5
Reading
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
West Ham
3.5
Bristol City
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Blackpool
3.2
Leeds
3.2
Millwall
3.2
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oldham
26.3
Cheltenham
25.9
Accrington
25.6
Bolton
25.5
Barnet
25.4
Crewe
25.4
Salford
25.3
Colchester
25.1
Birmingham
25.0
Cambridge
24.7
Wycombe
24.7
Stevenage
24.7
Rotherham
24.5
Millwall
24.5
Blackburn
24.5
Bournemouth
24.5
Wolves
24.4
Gillingham
24.4
Grimsby
24.3
Bradford
24.3
Stockport
24.3
Milton Keynes Dons
24.2
Exeter
24.1
Wigan
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.9
Southampton
23.8
Crawley Town
23.8
Lincoln
23.8
Portsmouth
23.8
Mansfield
23.7
Charlton
23.7
Tottenham
23.5
Doncaster
23.4
Sheffield Weds
23.4
AFC Wimbledon
23.4
Preston
23.2
Swansea
23.2
Reading
23.2
Cardiff
23.1
Shrewsbury
23.1
Fleetwood Town
23.1
Watford
23.1
Sunderland
23.0
Newcastle
23.0
Brighton
22.9
Tranmere
22.9
Aston Villa
22.9
QPR
22.9
Northampton
22.9
Ipswich
22.9
Bristol Rvs
22.8
Burnley
22.8
Huddersfield
22.8
Newport County
22.7
Chesterfield
22.6
Norwich
22.6
Plymouth
22.6
Blackpool
22.5
Sheffield United
22.4
Leeds
22.2
Barrow
22.2
Chelsea
22.1
Notts County
22.0
West Ham
22.0
Swindon
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.9
Port Vale
21.8
Hull
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Harrogate
21.7
Burton
21.6
Leicester
21.5
Everton
21.5
West Brom
21.5
Bromley
21.5
Fulham
21.5
Barnsley
21.5
Walsall
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Derby
21.4
Stoke
21.4
Oxford
21.3
Nottingham Forest
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
Arsenal
21.1
Wrexham
21.0
Leyton Orient
20.9
Bristol City
20.9
Liverpool
20.7
Brentford
19.0
Manchester City
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.3%
Under 21.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brentford or Draw✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
28%
covers Brentford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brentford or Aston Villa✗ Miss
72.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
28%
covers Brentford + Aston Villa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aston Villa✓ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
28%
covers Draw + Aston Villa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brentford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brentford, so a minus line means Brentford give that many goals of a start and Aston Villa receive them. At -1, Brentford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brentford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brentford)Actual: Aston Villa
Brentford -2
9.1%
Draw -2
13.8%
Aston Villa +2
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Brentford)Actual: Aston Villa
Brentford -1
22.9%
Draw -1
21.6%
Aston Villa +1
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Brentford)Actual: Brentford
Brentford +1
72.4%
Draw +1
16.1%
Aston Villa -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Brentford)Actual: Brentford
Brentford +2
88.5%
Draw +2
7.9%
Aston Villa -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.29
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.55
0.88
0.62
0.71
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.50
0.77
0.46
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.57
1.29
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
0.60
1.60
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.68
0.62
1.12
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.64
1.08
0.54
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brentford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Igor Thiago42%
Fabio Carvalho33%
Dango Ouattara16%
Kevin Schade15%
Mathias Jensen12%
Keane Lewis-Potter10%
Mikkel Damsgaard8%
Reiss Nelson7%
Nathan Collins5%
Aaron Hickey4%
Vitaly Janelt3%
Jordan Henderson3%
Yehor Yarmolyuk2%
Michael Kayode2%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Kristoffer Ajer0%
Frank Onyeka0%
Rico Henry0%
Ethan Pinnock0%
Sepp van den Berg0%
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson0%
Antoni Milambo0%
Kaye Furo0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt30%
Michael Kayode20%
Igor Thiago20%
Yehor Yarmolyuk19%
Jordan Henderson18%
Nathan Collins17%
Kevin Schade15%
Dango Ouattara14%
Kristoffer Ajer13%
Ethan Pinnock12%
Fabio Carvalho11%
Mathias Jensen7%
Rico Henry7%
Sepp van den Berg5%
Aaron Hickey4%
Caoimhin Kelleher3%
Keane Lewis-Potter2%
Reiss Nelson0%
Frank Onyeka0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson0%
Antoni Milambo0%
Kaye Furo0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Frank Onyeka22%
Reiss Nelson14%
Fabio Carvalho11%
Mikkel Damsgaard11%
Vitaly Janelt10%
Keane Lewis-Potter10%
Jordan Henderson9%
Dango Ouattara8%
Kevin Schade8%
Nathan Collins7%
Mathias Jensen7%
Kristoffer Ajer6%
Sepp van den Berg5%
Yehor Yarmolyuk5%
Rico Henry3%
Igor Thiago2%
Michael Kayode2%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Ethan Pinnock0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson0%
Antoni Milambo0%
Kaye Furo0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Igor Thiago25%
Kevin Schade21%
Dango Ouattara19%
Keane Lewis-Potter7%
Reiss Nelson7%
Mikkel Damsgaard3%
Sepp van den Berg3%
Mathias Jensen2%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Jordan Henderson0%
Kristoffer Ajer0%
Frank Onyeka0%
Rico Henry0%
Nathan Collins0%
Ethan Pinnock0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson0%
Fabio Carvalho0%
Yehor Yarmolyuk0%
Antoni Milambo0%
Michael Kayode0%
Kaye Furo0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Aston Villa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Ollie Watkins27%
Emiliano Buendía20%
Morgan Rogers20%
Tammy Abraham19%
John McGinn18%
Donyell Malen17%
Ross Barkley13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Evann Guessand10%
Matty Cash6%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Amadou Onana5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Jadon Sancho3%
Ian Maatsen2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matty Cash24%
Marco Bizot21%
Boubacar Kamara19%
John McGinn18%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Morgan Rogers16%
Lamare Bogarde16%
Douglas Luiz15%
Lucas Digne14%
Andrés García12%
Amadou Onana11%
Evann Guessand10%
Ollie Watkins7%
Victor Lindelöf7%
Emiliano Martínez7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ross Barkley4%
Pau Torres3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Jadon Sancho0%
Donyell Malen0%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Alysson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans17%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Lucas Digne16%
John McGinn16%
Boubacar Kamara15%
Ollie Watkins9%
Matty Cash8%
Jadon Sancho8%
Donyell Malen7%
Tammy Abraham6%
Leon Bailey5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Evann Guessand5%
Ross Barkley4%
Victor Lindelöf4%
Emiliano Martínez2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Morgan Rogers24%
Ollie Watkins24%
Emiliano Buendía13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evann Guessand10%
Youri Tielemans6%
Ross Barkley4%
Amadou Onana3%
Jadon Sancho3%
John McGinn2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Matty Cash2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Leon Bailey0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Douglas Luiz0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
Brentford's squad is €29m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€565m vs €536m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
Brentford's attack is €8m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€228m vs €220m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Brentford's midfield is €32m less valuable than Aston Villa's (€128m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
Brentford's defence is €53m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€209m vs €156m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Manchester United
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brighton
Chelsea
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves