This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.13
1.07
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.44
1.08
0.92
1.15
1.92
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 2.05+10.9%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.73-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.7%
No
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.7%
2-0
7.4%
1-2 ✓
7.1%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.5%
Brescia goals ↓
Mantova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.5%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.7%
12%
7.1%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.4%
9.4%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.3%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brescia goals (down), columns = Mantova goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sassuolo
2.16
Pisa
1.95
Spezia
1.74
Cremonese
1.62
Juve Stabia
1.49
Catanzaro
1.37
Cesena
1.36
Palermo
1.33
Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.18
Carrarese
1.18
Reggiana
1.16
Mantova
1.16
Brescia
1.13
Frosinone
1.13
Sampdoria
1.13
Salernitana
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Cosenza
0.89
Brescia is 0.03 points worse than Mantova in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sassuolo
2.05
Cremonese
1.64
Pisa
1.63
Spezia
1.55
Palermo
1.33
Sudtirol
1.32
Catanzaro
1.29
Modena
1.26
Mantova
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Brescia
1.11
Reggiana
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.10
Bari
1.08
Carrarese
1.03
Sampdoria
1.03
Frosinone
0.97
Salernitana
0.95
Cosenza
0.84
Cittadella
0.82
Brescia is 0.13 goals worse than Mantova in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.88
Pisa
0.97
Sassuolo
1.00
Bari
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.10
Palermo
1.13
Cremonese
1.14
Catanzaro
1.20
Cesena
1.23
Salernitana
1.26
Sampdoria
1.26
Brescia
1.26
Carrarese
1.29
Frosinone
1.32
Modena
1.32
Reggiana
1.37
Cittadella
1.42
Cosenza
1.47
Mantova
1.47
Sudtirol
1.50
Brescia is 0.21 goals better than Mantova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
62%
Cremonese
60%
Catanzaro
55%
Sassuolo
52%
Salernitana
52%
Juve Stabia
52%
Bari
51%
Spezia
50%
Palermo
49%
Carrarese
49%
Cosenza
49%
Cesena
49%
Modena
48%
Sampdoria
48%
Frosinone
47%
Brescia
46%
Pisa
46%
Cittadella
45%
Reggiana
44%
Sudtirol
44%
Brescia is 15.4 percentage points worse than Mantova in terms of average possession (46% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brescia
For 4.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 15.3 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mantova
For 3.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 19.8 · Total 34.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.6
10.5
5.0
5.1
5.0
29.2
28.8
29.6
vs Stronger (24)
9.9
9.1
10.5
5.3
5.2
5.5
29.4
29.2
29.5
vs Similar (25)
9.3
8.2
10.4
4.7
4.9
4.5
29.2
28.7
29.6
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
50%
42%
58%
72%
71%
73%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
28%
29%
27%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
8.7
7.9
9.5
5.7
5.7
5.7
35.5
38.1
33.0
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
6.0
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
27.5
30.0
25.0
vs Similar (26)
9.1
8.3
9.7
6.0
6.2
5.9
36.1
39.8
33.0
vs Weaker (3)
6.7
6.5
7.0
4.7
4.0
6.0
35.3
32.5
41.0
% over line
42%
33%
50%
90%
87%
94%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
10%
13%
6%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Palermo
10.7
Juve Stabia
10.3
Cosenza
10.2
Spezia
9.8
Frosinone
9.6
Brescia
9.6
Bari
9.3
Carrarese
9.3
Cremonese
9.2
Sampdoria
9.2
Sudtirol
9.2
Modena
9.2
Cittadella
9.1
Salernitana
9.1
Cesena
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Sassuolo
8.9
Mantova
8.7
Reggiana
8.7
Pisa
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.2
Juve Stabia
6.1
Spezia
6.1
Reggiana
5.7
Mantova
5.7
Sampdoria
5.4
Modena
5.3
Bari
5.3
Pisa
5.2
Cremonese
5.2
Carrarese
5.0
Brescia
5.0
Cittadella
5.0
Catanzaro
5.0
Cesena
4.9
Sudtirol
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Salernitana
4.6
Sassuolo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
35.5
Spezia
34.2
Juve Stabia
33.8
Cittadella
31.1
Reggiana
30.8
Sudtirol
30.7
Bari
30.0
Sampdoria
29.8
Cesena
29.5
Brescia
29.2
Cremonese
28.9
Frosinone
28.9
Cosenza
28.9
Pisa
28.9
Palermo
28.8
Catanzaro
28.6
Modena
28.5
Carrarese
28.3
Salernitana
27.4
Sassuolo
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.79
0.64
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
0.57
1.50
0.50
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.53
0.40
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.72
0.50
0.42
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.64
0.86
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.14
0.67
1.50
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.44
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.72
0.58
0.50
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Moncini20%
Gennaro Borrelli19%
Flavio Bianchi17%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Riccardo Fogliata14%
Matthias Verreth12%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah8%
Davide Adorni8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Ante Matej Jurić6%
Gabriele Calvani5%
Andrea Cistana4%
Nicolas Galazzi4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Michele Besaggio3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Lorenzo Dickmann0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabrizio Paghera38%
Davide Adorni30%
Lorenzo Dickmann26%
Dimitri Bisoli26%
Matthias Verreth24%
Gennaro Borrelli22%
Ante Matej Jurić19%
Andrea Papetti16%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Giacomo Olzer15%
Michele Besaggio14%
Gabriele Calvani14%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah12%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Andrea Cistana9%
Flavio Bianchi8%
Nicolas Galazzi8%
Gabriele Moncini8%
Luca Lezzerini8%
Alexander Jallow6%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi21%
Dimitri Bisoli19%
Ante Matej Jurić9%
Andrea Cistana9%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Niccolò Corrado5%
Andrea Papetti5%
Gabriele Moncini4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Giacomo Olzer4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Matthias Verreth3%
Gennaro Borrelli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Flavio Bianchi0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gennaro Borrelli33%
Gabriele Moncini24%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Matthias Verreth9%
Davide Adorni8%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Massimo Bertagnoli7%
Dimitri Bisoli6%
Flavio Bianchi4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Ante Matej Jurić3%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Mantova
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leonardo Mancuso23%
Davide Bragantini17%
Nicolò Radaelli15%
Alessandro Debenedetti14%
Alex Redolfi11%
Fabrizio Brignani10%
Matteo Solini9%
Francesco Ruocco9%
Mattia Aramu8%
Tommaso Maggioni7%
Francesco Galuppini6%
Simone Trimboli6%
Davis Mensah6%
Antonio Fiori6%
Salvatore Burrai4%
Sebastien De Maio0%
Marco Festa0%
Stefano Cella0%
Erik Panizzi0%
Mattia Muroni0%
Cristiano Bani0%
David Wieser0%
Federico Artioli0%
Simone Giordano0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Giacomo Fedel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Salvatore Burrai46%
Matteo Solini36%
Mattia Muroni33%
Nicolò Radaelli25%
Fabrizio Brignani24%
Stefano Cella23%
Simone Trimboli22%
Alex Redolfi21%
Erik Panizzi17%
Federico Artioli17%
Simone Giordano17%
Cristiano Bani15%
Sebastien De Maio14%
Antonio Fiori14%
Mattia Aramu12%
Davis Mensah11%
Francesco Galuppini9%
Marco Festa8%
Leonardo Mancuso8%
David Wieser7%
Davide Bragantini6%
Tommaso Maggioni3%
Alessandro Debenedetti3%
Francesco Ruocco0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Giacomo Fedel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Davis Mensah17%
Antonio Fiori14%
Mattia Aramu12%
Salvatore Burrai11%
David Wieser10%
Nicolò Radaelli10%
Francesco Ruocco9%
Francesco Galuppini9%
Federico Artioli8%
Davide Bragantini6%
Cristiano Bani4%
Fabrizio Brignani3%
Tommaso Maggioni3%
Simone Trimboli3%
Leonardo Mancuso3%
Sebastien De Maio0%
Marco Festa0%
Stefano Cella0%
Erik Panizzi0%
Mattia Muroni0%
Alex Redolfi0%
Matteo Solini0%
Simone Giordano0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Giacomo Fedel0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leonardo Mancuso15%
Francesco Galuppini14%
Antonio Fiori8%
Mattia Aramu8%
Fabrizio Brignani7%
Simone Trimboli6%
Nicolò Radaelli5%
Stefano Cella5%
Salvatore Burrai4%
Tommaso Maggioni3%
Davide Bragantini3%
Sebastien De Maio0%
Marco Festa0%
Erik Panizzi0%
Mattia Muroni0%
Davis Mensah0%
Alex Redolfi0%
Matteo Solini0%
Cristiano Bani0%
Francesco Ruocco0%
David Wieser0%
Federico Artioli0%
Simone Giordano0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Giacomo Fedel0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Sassuolo
Pisa
Spezia
Cremonese
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Cesena
Palermo
Bari
Sudtirol
Modena
Carrarese
Sampdoria
Reggiana
Frosinone
Salernitana
Cittadella
Cosenza