Aluminij are tipped to win this Slovenia 2. SNL clash at Brinje-Grosuplje, with the model picking an away victory. The expected total is 2.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9% probability. Brinje-Grosuplje, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Aluminij, on the road, average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded versus similar opposition. The home win probability sits at 19%, a draw at 25%, and the away win at 56%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals, which the model rates at 78.4%. The match-day narrative sees Brinje-Grosuplje fresh from a win, while Aluminij rebound after two straight defeats. This combination of form and statistical edge makes the away win the most credible outcome.
Results analysis
The match saw the predicted away win confirmed as Aluminij secured a 0-2 victory over Brinje-Grosuplje, extending their recent run of wins. The model had named “Away win” as the favourite with a 56% probability, and this call proved correct. The suggested pick “Over 1.5” came in with a 78.4% probability and indeed hit. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result, giving the model a clean sweep of its selections. With the home side’s form showing a win and the away side’s form a win after two defeats, the outcome aligned neatly with the statistical expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aluminij win✓ Hit
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.42
0.78
1.78
1.00
1.10
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.44
0.60
2.00
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
1.40
1.00
1.50
0.83
1.33
Clean sheet %
26% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.79
0.84
1.70
0.70
1.89
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.78
1.25
1.00
1.60
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
2.10
0.90
2.00
0.50
2.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
0-2 ✓
10.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
7.0%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
6.0%
2-1
5.3%
Brinje-Grosuplje goals ↓
Aluminij goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
9.8%
10.0%
6.1%
2.8%
1
4.8%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.8%
2
2.9%
5.3%
4.9%
3.0%
1.4%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (down), columns = Aluminij goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.87 points worse than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.93 goals worse than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.47 goals worse than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 0.77).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.84
0.44
0.89
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.40
1.20
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.74
0.26
0.90
0.20
0.56
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.11
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
74% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.58
0.33
0.89
0.60
0.30
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.56
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
58% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.05
0.58
0.80
0.50
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.60
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.17
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rogaška
Ilirija
Krka
Beltinci
Nafta
Primorje
Bistrica
Bilje
Dekani
Triglav
Rudar
Fužinar
Krško
Dob