Bristol City are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a Bristol win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.8 %. Bristol’s home form shows they score and concede 1.54 goals against similar opposition, while Stoke’s away record is 0.5 scored and 1.4 conceded. The probability split is 43 % for a Bristol win, 29 % for a draw and 28 % for a Stoke win. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 79.4 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.7 %, Over 2.5 cards at 75.3 %, Under 3.5 goals at 75.2 %, Over 1.5 goals at 73.0 % and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.5 %. Bristol’s recent draw against Birmingham and Stoke’s recent defeat to Southampton hint at a cautious start, but the home side’s edge should see them prevail.
Results analysis
The final score was 2-0, a home win that confirmed the model’s prediction and the 43 % chance it had given Bristol City the edge. The win extends their recent form, coming off a draw, while Stoke’s run of two straight defeats ended in a shut-out. The model’s favourite was indeed correct. The suggested picks all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 79.4 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.7 %, Over 2.5 cards at 75.3 %, Under 3.5 at 75.2 %, Over 1.5 at 73.0 %, and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.5 %. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and each selection’s result was noted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bristol City win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.94
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.70
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stoke win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.57
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bristol City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.37
1.57
1.57
0.94
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.33
1.54
1.54
1.07
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.47
1.29
1.47
0.46
1.46
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.67
1.67
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.42
1.21
1.43
0.50
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.65-10.2%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 2.14+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
2-0 ✓
8.2%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
4.9%
Bristol City goals ↓
Stoke goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.5%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.0%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.3%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bristol City goals (down), columns = Stoke goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Coventry
2.07
Ipswich
1.83
Southampton
1.75
Millwall
1.75
Middlesbrough
1.65
Hull
1.63
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Swansea
1.39
Birmingham
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Preston
1.30
Sheffield United
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Portsmouth
1.20
Stoke
1.20
Charlton
1.15
West Brom
1.15
Leicester
1.13
Blackburn
1.13
Oxford
1.02
Sheffield Weds
0.39
Bristol City is 0.15 points better than Stoke in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coventry
2.11
Southampton
1.75
Ipswich
1.74
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Hull
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Leicester
1.26
Swansea
1.24
Birmingham
1.24
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Oxford
0.98
Charlton
0.96
Blackburn
0.91
Sheffield Weds
0.63
Bristol City is 0.17 goals better than Stoke in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Coventry
0.98
Middlesbrough
1.02
Ipswich
1.02
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Norwich
1.22
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Stoke
1.22
Charlton
1.26
West Brom
1.26
Oxford
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Bristol City
1.28
Derby
1.28
Hull
1.35
Preston
1.35
Portsmouth
1.39
Watford
1.41
Wrexham
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
Leicester
1.48
QPR
1.59
Sheffield Weds
1.93
Bristol City is 0.07 goals worse than Stoke in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Ipswich
56%
Coventry
55%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Leicester
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Hull
45%
Sheffield Weds
45%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Oxford
40%
Bristol City is 2.6 percentage points worse than Stoke in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bristol City
For 4.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
For 6.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.5
3.8
3.4
4.1
21.1
19.4
22.7
vs Stronger (5)
8.4
7.0
9.3
4.4
5.5
3.7
22.4
24.5
21.0
vs Similar (44)
9.8
9.3
10.4
3.6
3.3
4.0
20.8
19.0
22.7
vs Weaker (1)
16.0
-
16.0
7.0
-
7.0
29.0
-
29.0
% over line
52%
40%
64%
54%
44%
64%
46%
32%
60%
% under line
48%
60%
36%
46%
56%
36%
54%
68%
40%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.7
3.9
3.9
3.8
20.6
21.6
19.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
11.0
7.7
3.1
4.0
1.7
19.5
21.0
17.0
vs Similar (41)
10.8
10.6
11.1
4.0
4.0
4.2
20.8
21.8
19.8
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
21.0
21.0
-
% over line
60%
63%
57%
40%
41%
39%
40%
48%
30%
% under line
40%
37%
43%
60%
59%
61%
60%
52%
70%
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.6
Oxford
11.2
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
11.0
Southampton
10.8
Leicester
10.7
Portsmouth
10.7
Stoke
10.6
Preston
10.6
Hull
10.6
Norwich
10.5
Blackburn
10.3
QPR
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Watford
10.2
Wrexham
10.2
Swansea
10.1
Birmingham
10.0
Coventry
10.0
Derby
9.9
Ipswich
9.8
Bristol City
9.8
West Brom
9.6
Charlton
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Hull
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Swansea
4.1
Derby
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Portsmouth
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Sheffield United
4.0
Middlesbrough
3.9
Stoke
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Coventry
3.8
Bristol City
3.8
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.7
Millwall
3.6
Leicester
3.5
Wrexham
3.4
Oxford
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Sheffield Weds
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.1
Derby
22.6
Southampton
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Leicester
22.4
Birmingham
22.1
Middlesbrough
22.1
Oxford
21.9
Portsmouth
21.9
Charlton
21.8
Hull
21.7
Sheffield Weds
21.7
Sheffield United
21.6
Blackburn
21.4
Watford
21.4
QPR
21.2
Millwall
21.2
Norwich
21.1
Bristol City
21.1
West Brom
21.0
Coventry
20.9
Stoke
20.6
Preston
19.9
Wrexham
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.5%
Under 3.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.1%
Under 21.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bristol City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.57
0.79
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.62
0.77
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.59
0.29
0.23
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.42
0.50
0.36
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bristol City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bristol City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
1.00
0.79
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.59
0.92
0.77
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.71
1.18
0.23
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
1.00
0.71
1.07
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bristol City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (30)
€213m
COV (27)
€202m
SOU (32)
€195m
MID (31)
€152m
SHU (33)
€121m
LEI (28)
€118m
NOR (35)
€103m
BIR (29)
€101m
HUL (28)
€99m
MIL (32)
€99m
WAT (27)
€90m
SWA (28)
€89m
STK (27)
€79m
WRE (30)
€76m
BRC (27)
€72m
QPR (31)
€69m
WBA (25)
€60m
DER (28)
€55m
PRE (28)
€54m
BLB (30)
€40m
POR (34)
€35m
CHA (31)
€28m
OXF (36)
€28m
SHW (24)
€15m
Bristol City's squad is €7m less valuable than Stoke's (€72m vs €79m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (9)
€94m
COV (8)
€75m
SOU (10)
€68m
MID (11)
€58m
SWA (12)
€53m
NOR (11)
€48m
BIR (10)
€47m
LEI (9)
€46m
HUL (10)
€44m
STK (11)
€42m
WAT (8)
€30m
MIL (9)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
BRC (9)
€28m
SHU (10)
€27m
PRE (9)
€25m
DER (7)
€22m
WBA (10)
€21m
BLB (9)
€16m
CHA (12)
€15m
POR (12)
€14m
WRE (8)
€14m
OXF (15)
€12m
SHW (5)
€3m
Bristol City's attack is €14m less valuable than Stoke's (€28m vs €42m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SOU (7)
€55m
MID (7)
€54m
COV (7)
€53m
IPS (7)
€51m
SHU (9)
€43m
WAT (8)
€36m
MIL (9)
€34m
LEI (6)
€28m
NOR (10)
€23m
WRE (9)
€21m
HUL (7)
€20m
BRC (7)
€19m
WBA (4)
€18m
BIR (5)
€18m
QPR (6)
€16m
DER (8)
€16m
SWA (5)
€12m
BLB (9)
€10m
STK (5)
€7m
PRE (6)
€5m
OXF (4)
€5m
POR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€4m
SHW (7)
€3m
Bristol City's midfield is €12m more valuable than Stoke's (€19m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COV (12)
€74m
SOU (15)
€71m
IPS (14)
€68m
SHU (14)
€51m
LEI (13)
€45m
WRE (13)
€41m
MID (13)
€40m
BIR (14)
€37m
MIL (14)
€36m
HUL (11)
€35m
NOR (14)
€32m
STK (11)
€29m
QPR (14)
€24m
SWA (11)
€24m
BRC (11)
€24m
PRE (13)
€24m
WAT (11)
€24m
WBA (11)
€22m
DER (13)
€18m
POR (17)
€16m
BLB (12)
€14m
OXF (17)
€12m
CHA (14)
€10m
SHW (12)
€8m
Bristol City's defence is €5m less valuable than Stoke's (€24m vs €29m).
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Coventry
Ipswich
Southampton
Millwall
Middlesbrough
Hull
Wrexham
Derby
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Sheffield United
Preston
QPR
Watford
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford
Sheffield Weds