The contest between Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away victory are not far behind. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly active match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% chance. Briton Ferry’s home form shows they average 1.15 goals for and 1.69 against against similar opposition, while Colwyn Bay, on the road, scores 1.17 and concedes 1.33. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.9%), Under 4.5 (85.7%), and Home +2 handicap (85.3%). Home win probability is 40%, draw 28%, and away win 32%. The recent form notes that Briton Ferry come off two straight defeats, while Colwyn Bay return after a win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Briton Ferry win
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay win
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Briton Ferry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.50
1.13
1.67
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.54
1.15
1.69
1.31
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
2.00
1.36
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.50
2.30
1.70
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
Briton Ferry goals ↓
Colwyn Bay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.0%
5.4%
2.3%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.8%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.3%
4.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Briton Ferry goals (down), columns = Colwyn Bay goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Briton Ferry is 0.50 points worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Briton Ferry is 0.50 goals worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Briton Ferry or Draw
67.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
33%
covers Briton Ferry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry or Colwyn Bay
72.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
33%
covers Briton Ferry + Colwyn Bay
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Colwyn Bay
60.3%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Colwyn Bay
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Briton Ferry, so a minus line means Briton Ferry give that many goals of a start and Colwyn Bay receive them. At -1, Briton Ferry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Briton Ferry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry -2
7.5%
Draw -2
12.1%
Colwyn Bay +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry -1
19.6%
Draw -1
20.0%
Colwyn Bay +1
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry +1
67.5%
Draw +1
17.8%
Colwyn Bay -1
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry +2
85.2%
Draw +2
9.7%
Colwyn Bay -2
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Briton Ferry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.14
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
1.20
0.70
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Briton Ferry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.96
0.54
1.00
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.95
1.10
1.00
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell