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Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 14:30
Final 1-0
Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Vs
27%
25%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Briton Ferry win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC win✗ Miss
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D15L61W22D23L10W13L34L11D10WH·BAR31/12A·HAV04/01A·ABE11/01A·NEW24/01H·ABE01/02A·GAP08/02A·FLI22/02H·BAR07/03H·NEW11/03A·ABE21/03
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.931.622.001.591.88
vs Stronger (2)2.503.003.001.002.005.00
vs Similar (24)1.252.001.202.201.291.86
vs Weaker (4)3.251.003.001.503.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L12L10W01L20W20W30W40W21W32WH·BAL17/01A·FLI25/01H·NEW01/02H·BRI08/02A·CAE16/02A·BAR22/02H·ABE07/03H·FLI11/03H·LLA15/03A·NEW21/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.001.940.821.381.23
vs Stronger (2)1.002.001.002.001.002.00
vs Similar (21)1.571.052.000.921.001.22
vs Weaker (7)2.290.572.000.252.671.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.7%
Under 2.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.5%
Under 3.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.4%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.0%
Briton Ferry goals ↓
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals →
01234
05.0%6.4%6.9%4.3%2.0%
14.4%11%9.4%5.9%2.8%
23.6%6.8%6.4%4.0%1.9%
31.6%3.1%2.9%1.8%0.8%
40.6%1.0%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Briton Ferry goals (down), columns = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
Briton Ferry is 0.31 points worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.31).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
Briton Ferry is 0.03 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
Briton Ferry is 0.94 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.09).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D21W12L01L00D02L12L00D00DH·BAR31/12A·HAV04/01A·ABE11/01A·NEW24/01H·ABE01/02A·GAP08/02A·FLI22/02H·BAR07/03H·NEW11/03A·ABE21/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.970.770.770.651.12
vs Stronger (2)2.002.003.001.001.003.00
vs Similar (24)0.540.960.500.800.571.07
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W00D10W10W10W20W01L20WH·BAL17/01A·FLI25/01H·NEW01/02H·BRI08/02A·CAE16/02A·BAR22/02H·ABE07/03H·FLI11/03H·LLA15/03A·NEW21/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.331.060.180.620.54
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.760.331.080.170.330.56
vs Weaker (7)1.290.141.250.251.330.00
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D04L40W10W22D10W11D22D11D10WH·BAR31/12A·HAV04/01A·ABE11/01A·NEW24/01H·ABE01/02A·GAP08/02A·FLI22/02H·BAR07/03H·NEW11/03A·ABE21/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.970.851.230.940.76
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.711.040.701.400.710.79
vs Weaker (4)2.250.502.001.002.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D00D01L10W10W20W20W20W12LH·BAL17/01A·FLI25/01H·NEW01/02H·BRI08/02A·CAE16/02A·BAR22/02H·ABE07/03H·FLI11/03H·LLA15/03A·NEW21/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.670.880.650.770.69
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (21)0.810.710.920.750.670.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.430.750.001.331.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
BF wins
0
Draws
2
GCS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/25AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF0-1
27/10/24AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF2-1
31/08/24HBF Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-5

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/25AAberystwyth Town Vs BF0-1
11/03/25HBF Vs Newtown AFC1-1
07/03/25HBF Vs Barry Town3-4
22/02/25AFlint Town United Vs BF3-1
08/02/25AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF0-1
01/02/25HBF Vs Aberystwyth Town2-3
24/01/25ANewtown AFC Vs BF2-2
11/01/25AAberystwyth Town Vs BF1-6
04/01/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs BF5-1
31/12/24HBF Vs Barry Town0-0

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/25ANewtown AFC Vs GCS2-3
15/03/25HGCS Vs llanelli AFC2-1
11/03/25HGCS Vs Flint Town United4-0
07/03/25HGCS Vs Aberystwyth Town3-0
22/02/25ABarry Town Vs GCS0-2
16/02/25ACaerau (Ely) Vs GCS0-2
08/02/25HGCS Vs Briton Ferry0-1
01/02/25HGCS Vs Newtown AFC1-0
25/01/25AFlint Town United Vs GCS2-1
17/01/25HGCS Vs Bala Town0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.52
HomeWDLLD1.61
AwayWDWLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals3.683.653.70
Over 1.5 %86%87%85%
Over 2.5 %74%70%78%
Over 3.5 %52%52%52%
Scored1.982.041.93
Conceded1.701.611.78
BTTS68%65%70%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners---
Cards---
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.60
HomeWLWWW1.58
AwayLLWWW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%46%50%
AVG goals2.602.622.58
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.521.541.50
Conceded1.081.081.08
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet36%35%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3278
81%
2.4
8931+58
3.8
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.81.0
-
2PenybontPenybont3264
59%
2.0
5632+24
2.8
69%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3354
42%
1.6
4227+15
2.1
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.30.8
-
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3552
43%
1.5
5956+3
3.3
86%
66%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.6
-
5Barry TownBarry Town3352
45%
1.6
5756+1
3.4
91%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.7
-
6Cardiff METCardiff MET3448
38%
1.4
4446-2
2.6
74%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.4
-
7GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3242
38%
1.3
4735+12
2.6
69%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3242
41%
1.3
4862-14
3.4
91%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.9
-
9Bala TownBala Town3337
24%
1.1
3844-6
2.5
70%
45%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
10Briton FerryBriton Ferry3232
28%
1.0
4665-19
3.5
78%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.0
-
11Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3226
19%
0.8
3665-29
3.2
84%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3221
19%
0.7
2871-43
3.1
81%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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