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Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Result & Analysis

Date: 11/10/2025
Time: 11:30
Final 0-3
Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Vs
23%
27%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Briton Ferry win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D42W01L22D25L22D12L12L00D10WH·CAR15/08A·LLA22/08H·HAV25/08A·COL30/08H·CAE13/09A·BAL19/09H·LLA23/09A·FLI27/09H·PEN03/10A·BAR07/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.831.311.621.882.00
vs Stronger (3)2.672.003.001.002.502.50
vs Similar (24)1.331.881.091.551.542.15
vs Weaker (3)3.001.332.003.003.500.50
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L32W10W13L11D31W12L00D30W31WA·THE22/08H·FLI25/08A·PEN30/08H·BAL02/09H·CAR13/09A·HAV20/09H·CAE23/09A·BAR27/09H·LLA04/10A·BAL07/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.131.871.131.271.13
vs Stronger (3)0.672.33--0.672.33
vs Similar (23)1.611.041.851.311.300.70
vs Weaker (4)2.000.752.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Briton Ferry goals ↓
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals →
01234
07.9%9.9%9.1%5.0%2.1%
15.9%13%9.6%5.3%2.2%
23.7%6.1%5.1%2.8%1.1%
31.3%2.2%1.8%1.0%0.4%
40.3%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Briton Ferry goals (down), columns = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Briton Ferry is 0.41 points worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.81).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Briton Ferry is 0.47 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.91).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Briton Ferry is 0.28 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.19).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W22D00D11D21W11D10W11D00D10WH·CAR15/08A·LLA22/08H·HAV25/08A·COL30/08H·CAE13/09A·BAL19/09H·LLA23/09A·FLI27/09H·PEN03/10A·BAR07/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.870.690.460.761.18
vs Stronger (3)1.671.333.001.001.001.50
vs Similar (24)0.620.830.550.360.691.23
vs Weaker (3)0.670.670.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L00D00D10W11D01L00D10W21WA·THE22/08H·FLI25/08A·PEN30/08H·BAL02/09H·CAR13/09A·HAV20/09H·CAE23/09A·BAR27/09H·LLA04/10A·BAL07/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.870.400.730.67
vs Stronger (3)0.671.67--0.671.67
vs Similar (23)0.740.430.850.460.600.40
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W01L11D04L11D02L01L00D00DH·CAR15/08A·LLA22/08H·HAV25/08A·COL30/08H·CAE13/09A·BAL19/09H·LLA23/09A·FLI27/09H·PEN03/10A·BAR07/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.970.621.151.120.82
vs Stronger (3)1.000.670.000.001.501.00
vs Similar (24)0.711.040.551.180.850.92
vs Weaker (3)2.330.672.002.002.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W10W13L01L20W11D00D20W10WA·THE22/08H·FLI25/08A·PEN30/08H·BAL02/09H·CAR13/09A·HAV20/09H·CAE23/09A·BAR27/09H·LLA04/10A·BAL07/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.601.000.730.530.47
vs Stronger (3)0.000.67--0.000.67
vs Similar (23)0.870.611.000.850.700.30
vs Weaker (4)0.750.501.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
BF wins
0
Draws
2
GCS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25HBF Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-0
08/02/25AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF0-1
27/10/24AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF2-1
31/08/24HBF Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-5

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/25ABarry Town Vs BF0-1
03/10/25HBF Vs Penybont0-0
27/09/25AFlint Town United Vs BF2-1
23/09/25HBF Vs llanelli AFC1-2
19/09/25ABala Town Vs BF2-2
13/09/25HBF Vs Caernarfon Town2-5
30/08/25AColwyn Bay Vs BF2-2
25/08/25HBF Vs Haverfordwest County AFC0-1
22/08/25Allanelli AFC Vs BF2-4
15/08/25HBF Vs Cardiff MET1-1

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/25ABala Town Vs GCS1-3
04/10/25HGCS Vs llanelli AFC3-0
27/09/25ABarry Town Vs GCS0-0
23/09/25HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town1-2
20/09/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs GCS1-3
13/09/25HGCS Vs Cardiff MET1-1
02/09/25HGCS Vs Bala Town1-3
30/08/25APenybont Vs GCS0-1
25/08/25HGCS Vs Flint Town United3-2
22/08/25AThe New Saints Vs GCS3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.26
HomeDLLLD1.04
AwayWDDLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%26%44%
AVG goals3.423.093.70
Over 1.5 %78%74%81%
Over 2.5 %66%57%74%
Over 3.5 %46%39%52%
Scored1.661.391.89
Conceded1.761.701.81
BTTS62%61%63%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners---
Cards---
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW1.50
HomeWLDLW1.56
AwayLWWDW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals2.622.722.52
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.541.681.40
Conceded1.081.041.12
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet32%32%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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