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Briton Ferry vs Penybont Result & Analysis

Date: 03/10/2025
Time: 18:45
Final 0-0
Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Vs
18%
22%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Briton Ferry win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win✗ Miss
59.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L30W11D42W01L22D25L22D12L12LA·BAR19/04A·THE10/08H·CAR15/08A·LLA22/08H·HAV25/08A·COL30/08H·CAE13/09A·BAL19/09H·LLA23/09A·FLI27/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.871.501.571.942.12
vs Stronger (3)2.672.003.001.002.502.50
vs Similar (23)1.352.001.091.641.582.33
vs Weaker (4)3.251.003.001.503.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W02L32W20W01L00D50W21W40W10WA·HAV08/08H·THE16/08A·BAR22/08H·LLA25/08H·GAP30/08A·BAL06/09H·FLI13/09A·CAE20/09A·CAR23/09H·COL27/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.171.530.671.871.67
vs Stronger (6)0.672.170.671.000.673.33
vs Similar (24)1.960.921.750.582.171.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
7.2%
1-3
7.0%
0-3
6.3%
2-2
5.5%
2-1
5.1%
Briton Ferry goals ↓
Penybont goals →
01234
04.7%7.2%8.8%6.3%3.4%
13.3%10%9.8%7.0%3.8%
22.4%5.1%5.5%4.0%2.1%
30.9%1.9%2.1%1.5%0.8%
40.3%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Briton Ferry goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Briton Ferry is 0.08 points better than Penybont in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.32).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Briton Ferry is 0.23 goals better than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.21).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Briton Ferry is 0.03 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.44).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W10W22D00D11D21W11D10W11DA·BAR19/04A·THE10/08H·CAR15/08A·LLA22/08H·HAV25/08A·COL30/08H·CAE13/09A·BAL19/09H·LLA23/09A·FLI27/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.900.790.500.751.25
vs Stronger (3)1.671.333.001.001.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.610.910.550.450.671.33
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D20W00D00D20W00D20W10WA·HAV08/08H·THE16/08A·BAR22/08H·LLA25/08H·GAP30/08A·BAL06/09H·FLI13/09A·CAE20/09A·CAR23/09H·COL27/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.800.200.600.53
vs Stronger (6)0.500.830.330.670.671.00
vs Similar (24)0.750.250.920.080.580.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L20W01L20W01L11D04L11D02L01LA·BAR19/04A·THE10/08H·CAR15/08A·LLA22/08H·HAV25/08A·COL30/08H·CAE13/09A·BAL19/09H·LLA23/09A·FLI27/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.970.711.071.190.88
vs Stronger (3)1.000.670.000.001.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.741.090.551.180.921.00
vs Weaker (4)2.250.502.001.002.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L21W00D01L00D30W21W20W00DA·HAV08/08H·THE16/08A·BAR22/08H·LLA25/08H·GAP30/08A·BAL06/09H·FLI13/09A·CAE20/09A·CAR23/09H·COL27/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.800.730.471.271.13
vs Stronger (6)0.171.330.330.330.002.33
vs Similar (24)1.210.670.830.501.580.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BF wins
0
Draws
1
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Briton Ferry vs Penybont · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/24APenybont Vs BF0-1
11/08/24HBF Vs Penybont0-2

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25AFlint Town United Vs BF2-1
23/09/25HBF Vs llanelli AFC1-2
19/09/25ABala Town Vs BF2-2
13/09/25HBF Vs Caernarfon Town2-5
30/08/25AColwyn Bay Vs BF2-2
25/08/25HBF Vs Haverfordwest County AFC0-1
22/08/25Allanelli AFC Vs BF2-4
15/08/25HBF Vs Cardiff MET1-1
10/08/25AThe New Saints Vs BF0-3
19/04/25ABarry Town Vs BF5-0

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay1-0
23/09/25ACardiff MET Vs PEN0-4
20/09/25ACaernarfon Town Vs PEN1-2
13/09/25HPEN Vs Flint Town United5-0
06/09/25ABala Town Vs PEN0-0
30/08/25HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-1
25/08/25HPEN Vs llanelli AFC2-0
22/08/25ABarry Town Vs PEN2-3
16/08/25HPEN Vs The New Saints0-2
08/08/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs PEN0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.30
HomeLDLLL1.21
AwayWWDDL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals3.523.213.81
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %70%62%77%
Over 3.5 %46%38%54%
Scored1.721.501.92
Conceded1.801.711.88
BTTS66%67%65%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.98
HomeLWLWW2.00
AwayWWDWW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%58%62%
AVG goals2.682.253.08
Over 1.5 %68%54%81%
Over 2.5 %54%33%73%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.761.581.92
Conceded0.920.671.15
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet44%46%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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