Briton Ferry are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win. The expected total of 3.1 goals hints at a lively encounter, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% probability. Briton Ferry, playing against a weaker side, have averaged two goals scored and one conceded at home, while Trefelin, facing a stronger opponent on the road, average 2.42 scored and 1.33 conceded. The home win probability stands at 42%, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 32%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.6%), Under 5.5 (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (84.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.0%), and Over 1.5 (81.9%). Briton Ferry’s recent form shows a string of two losses, while Trefelin is coming off a defeat, adding intrigue to the fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Briton Ferry win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trefelin win
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Briton Ferry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.50
1.13
1.67
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.54
1.15
1.69
1.31
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trefelin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.07
2.29
1.14
2.62
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
2.55
1.05
2.70
0.70
2.42
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.25
1.12
1.25
2.25
3.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.7%
0-1
5.4%
Briton Ferry goals ↓
Trefelin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.4%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
1
6.7%
12%
7.5%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.1%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.7%
5.1%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Briton Ferry goals (down), columns = Trefelin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Briton Ferry is 1.00 points better than Trefelin in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Briton Ferry is 0.50 goals better than Trefelin in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Briton Ferry is 1.17 goals better than Trefelin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Briton Ferry or Draw
69.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
31%
covers Briton Ferry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry or Trefelin
74.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
31%
covers Briton Ferry + Trefelin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trefelin
56.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
31%
covers Draw + Trefelin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5
Over
81.4%
Under
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Briton Ferry, so a minus line means Briton Ferry give that many goals of a start and Trefelin receive them. At -1, Briton Ferry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Briton Ferry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry -2
9.9%
Draw -2
13.4%
Trefelin +2
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry -1
23.3%
Draw -1
20.2%
Trefelin +1
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry +1
69.4%
Draw +1
16.4%
Trefelin -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Briton Ferry)
Briton Ferry +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.1%
Trefelin -2
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Briton Ferry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trefelin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.59
1.40
0.60
0.83
0.58
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
0.25
1.50
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Briton Ferry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.96
0.54
1.00
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trefelin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.21
0.29
1.62
0.56
vs Stronger (22)
1.45
0.45
1.30
0.10
1.58
0.75
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.75
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Trefelin have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Trefelin have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Trefelin have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Trefelin have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →