Pythia gives BSC Young Boys a 52% win probability against FC Sion in the Switzerland: Super League on 2026-07-26, with 23% for the draw and 25% for FC Sion. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (88%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 2.5 cards (83%), Over 21.5 fouls (77%).
Results analysis
BSC Young Boys finished 4-2 against FC Sion (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 23% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (88%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 2.5 cards (83%), Over 21.5 fouls (77%), Under 5.5 cards (70%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BSC Young Boys win✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Sion win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BSC Young Boys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.77
2.20
1.33
2.00
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
2.00
2.00
1.50
0.75
2.33
2.83
vs Weaker (18)
2.33
1.67
2.70
1.60
1.88
1.75
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sion) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Sion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.67
0.73
1.67
1.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.14
1.75
0.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.17
1.75
1.00
1.60
1.30
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.20
1.33
0.33
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (BSC Young Boys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
1-0
5.9%
3-0
4.7%
BSC Young Boys goals ↓
FC Sion goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.7%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.9%
10%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.5%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.7%
6.4%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.4%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BSC Young Boys goals (down), columns = FC Sion goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Thun
1.97
FC ST. Gallen
1.84
FC Lugano
1.76
FC Sion
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.47
BSC Young Boys
1.45
FC Luzern
1.39
Servette FC
1.39
Lausanne
1.11
FC Zurich
1.00
FC Vaduz
0.98
Grasshoppers
0.93
BSC Young Boys is 0.21 points worse than FC Sion in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.11
BSC Young Boys
2.11
FC Luzern
2.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.89
Servette FC
1.87
FC Sion
1.66
FC Lugano
1.55
FC Basel 1893
1.45
Lausanne
1.39
FC Zurich
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.25
FC Vaduz
1.16
BSC Young Boys is 0.45 goals better than FC Sion in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.66).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
1.05
FC Lugano
1.11
FC ST. Gallen
1.24
FC Thun
1.37
FC Basel 1893
1.53
Servette FC
1.66
FC Luzern
1.74
Lausanne
1.76
BSC Young Boys
1.82
Grasshoppers
1.88
FC Zurich
1.89
FC Vaduz
2.14
BSC Young Boys is 0.76 goals worse than FC Sion in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
56%
BSC Young Boys
55%
FC Basel 1893
55%
Servette FC
52%
FC Sion
51%
FC Zurich
51%
FC Luzern
50%
Lausanne
50%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC ST. Gallen
45%
BSC Young Boys is 4.1 percentage points better than FC Sion in terms of average possession (55% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
BSC Young Boys
For 4.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 11.3 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Sion
For 6.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 15.3 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
BSC Young Boys
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
4.0
3.9
4.2
23.9
23.0
24.7
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
6.0
7.0
4.5
6.0
3.0
22.0
21.0
23.0
vs Similar (22)
9.5
9.3
9.7
4.4
4.1
4.7
23.2
22.2
24.3
vs Weaker (26)
9.8
10.5
9.2
3.7
3.5
3.8
24.6
23.9
25.2
% over line
58%
68%
48%
56%
56%
56%
62%
52%
72%
% under line
42%
32%
52%
44%
44%
44%
38%
48%
28%
This opponent (FC Sion) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Sion
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.3
4.9
5.3
4.6
27.1
28.0
26.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
10.2
11.8
4.5
4.5
4.5
25.6
26.5
24.8
vs Similar (32)
9.8
9.4
10.3
5.1
5.4
4.7
28.0
28.6
27.3
vs Weaker (10)
9.1
9.2
9.0
4.8
5.4
4.2
25.6
27.0
24.2
% over line
50%
46%
54%
80%
85%
75%
86%
88%
83%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
20%
15%
25%
14%
12%
17%
This opponent (BSC Young Boys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.9
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
Lausanne
10.7
Servette FC
10.6
FC Thun
10.4
FC Basel 1893
10.4
FC Luzern
10.3
FC Sion
9.9
BSC Young Boys
9.6
Grasshoppers
9.6
FC Vaduz
9.4
FC Lugano
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
6.0
FC Vaduz
5.3
Grasshoppers
5.2
FC Thun
5.1
Lausanne
5.0
FC Sion
4.9
FC Lugano
4.8
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Zurich
4.8
FC Luzern
4.6
Servette FC
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
29.9
FC Thun
28.1
FC Sion
27.1
FC Zurich
26.8
FC Basel 1893
26.8
FC Vaduz
25.4
Grasshoppers
25.1
FC Lugano
25.1
Lausanne
24.6
FC Luzern
24.1
BSC Young Boys
23.9
Servette FC
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.8%
Under 3.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.8%
Under 21.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BSC Young Boys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.80
0.50
0.00
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sion) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Sion
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.00
0.47
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.57
1.50
0.25
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (BSC Young Boys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BSC Young Boys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSC Young Boys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSC Young Boys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Sion over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Sion over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Sion over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (39)
€83m
FB1 (29)
€70m
FL (34)
€69m
FZ (82)
€58m
LAU (62)
€47m
FSG (33)
€41m
FL (31)
€41m
FT (28)
€30m
FS (28)
€29m
SF (28)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
BSC Young Boys's squad is €53m more valuable than FC Sion's (€83m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (12)
€37m
FZ (25)
€23m
FSG (15)
€20m
BYB (8)
€18m
LAU (23)
€18m
FS (11)
€17m
FL (12)
€15m
FL (9)
€8m
FT (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€4m
FV (8)
€2m
BSC Young Boys's attack is €1m more valuable than FC Sion's (€18m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (11)
€21m
FB1 (5)
€17m
FZ (21)
€16m
FT (10)
€13m
LAU (12)
€9m
FL (8)
€9m
SF (10)
€6m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (7)
€5m
FL (5)
€5m
FV (9)
€2m
BSC Young Boys's midfield is €16m more valuable than FC Sion's (€21m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€52m
BYB (20)
€44m
FL (14)
€20m
LAU (27)
€20m
FZ (36)
€19m
FB1 (12)
€15m
FSG (12)
€14m
FT (11)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
SF (12)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
BSC Young Boys's defence is €37m more valuable than FC Sion's (€44m vs €7m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
FC ST. Gallen
FC Basel 1893
Lausanne
Servette FC
FC Zurich
FC Thun
Grasshoppers
FC Luzern
FC Vaduz