Vasas, coming off a convincing 5-0 win over Zalaegerszegi TE, will look to continue their momentum against Budapest Honved. The away side has been solid on the road, scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding just 1. However, Budapest Honved's home form has been relatively strong, with an average of 2.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 42% chance of success. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability. The expected total goals is 2.1, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The model also suggests taking the Under 3.5, with an 84.1% probability. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 42%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 is the most likely outcome, with a 84.1% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Budapest Honved's recent form woes, having come off a defeat and now succumbing to a 2-1 defeat at home against Vasas. The actual result was an away win, with Vasas prevailing 1-2. The model's selection of an away win was correct, given the pre-match probability of 42%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favourite was indeed Vasas.
The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.1% and a significant edge of 18%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the actual result was a 1-2 away win. The model's prediction of 2.1 total goals was also close to the actual score.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Budapest Honved win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.56
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.66
Superbet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.33
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Vasas win✓ Hit
42.1%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.49
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.60
Pinnacle
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
10Bet
2.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Budapest Honved
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.97
1.88
0.94
1.21
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.54
0.96
1.87
1.00
1.15
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.73
2.50
0.88
1.57
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
2.31
0.92
2.38
0.88
2.20
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.93
0.67
2.57
1.00
1.38
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.21-13.6%
Under 1.5
37.0%
@ 3.97+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.98
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.7%
@ 1.71-20.1%
Under 2.5
65.3%
@ 2.07+20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.9%
@ 2.73-18.1%
Under 3.5
84.1%
@ 1.41+18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
888Sport
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.4%
@ 1.58-16.3%
No
57.6%
@ 2.24+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Unibet
1.58
No
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.09+7.3%
0-0
13.7%@ 10.90+9.7%
0-1
13.6%@ 8.92+8.7%
1-0
9.6%@ 9.10+4.8%
0-2
9.0%@ 12.44+5.5%
1-2 ✓
7.9%@ 8.52+2.8%
2-1
5.8%@ 8.81+0.9%
2-0
4.8%@ 12.45+1.3%
Budapest Honved goals ↓
Vasas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
9.0%
3.6%
1.1%
1
9.6%
15%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2
4.8%
5.8%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Budapest Honved goals (down), columns = Vasas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Budapest Honved is 0.13 points worse than Vasas in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Budapest Honved is 0.07 goals worse than Vasas in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Budapest Honved is 0.43 goals worse than Vasas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Budapest Honved is 9.0 percentage points better than Vasas in terms of average possession (52% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Budapest Honved
For 5.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Budapest Honved
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
7.0
8.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
23.3
28.0
21.0
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
-
8.0
1.5
0.0
3.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (48)
7.5
7.0
8.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
23.0
28.0
18.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
4%
0%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
96%
100%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
5.0
5.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
0%
0%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.6
Ujpest
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.8
Puskas Academy
9.7
Kisvarda FC
9.6
Ferencvarosi TC
9.6
MTK Budapest
9.6
Budapest Honved
9.4
Gyori ETO FC
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.2
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.2
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Paks
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.9
Gyori ETO FC
4.7
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
MTK Budapest
4.3
Budapest Honved
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.5
Debreceni VSC
28.1
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ujpest
26.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.2
MTK Budapest
24.8
Gyori ETO FC
24.4
Kisvarda FC
24.0
Budapest Honved
23.3
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.9%
@ 1.90-4.0%
Under 9.5
55.1%
@ 1.81+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.4%
Under 21.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Budapest Honved
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.88
0.38
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.36
0.93
0.40
0.38
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.20
0.94
0.25
0.64
0.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.15
0.88
0.12
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Budapest Honved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Budapest Honved
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.00
0.56
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.61
0.93
0.60
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.53
1.56
0.62
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.77
1.50
0.75
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.40
1.57
0.57
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Budapest Honved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.1%
1.41
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
+18.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
1.27
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+5.5%
-
Over 23.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Budapest Honved
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominik Csontos50%
Ádam Szamosi50%
Ákos Baki33%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ádam Somogyi25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Deian Boldor0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ákos Zuigéber0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deian Boldor50%
Szilveszter Hangya25%
Dominik Csontos25%
Kevin Kállai25%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Tamás Somogyi0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Ádam Szamosi0%
Ákos Zuigéber0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dominik Csontos50%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ákos Zuigéber25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Deian Boldor0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Ádam Szamosi0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ádam Szamosi50%
Deian Boldor25%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ákos Zuigéber25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Dominik Csontos0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Budapest Honved's squad is €2m less valuable than Vasas's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Budapest Honved's attack is €2m less valuable than Vasas's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Budapest Honved's midfield is €1m less valuable than Vasas's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Budapest Honved and Vasas have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE