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Buducnost Podgorica vs Dečić Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2023
Time: 18:00
Final 1-1
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Vs
47%
30%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Buducnost Podgorica are favoured to win this encounter, with a 47% chance of triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a defeat for the hosts. The model expects a modest 2.3 goals in total, most likely settling on a 2-goal match. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability. Buducnost’s home form shows they average 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against teams of similar strength, while De Čić, playing away, averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded versus comparable opponents. The model’s selection includes an 80.7% chance of Under 3.5 goals, a hit. The home win probability is 47%, the draw probability 30%, and the away win probability 23%. The only suggested pick is Under 3.5 with 80.7%.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Buducnost Podgorica, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended their recent form of a draw, a loss, a draw, a loss, a win, and left them still on a single point gain. The model had selected a home win with a 47% probability, but that call was wrong. The game’s total goals fell short of the expected 2.3, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 materialising. The model’s single other suggestion, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 80.7% probability. The away side, Dečić, continued a four-game winning run, yet the encounter ended in a stalemate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Buducnost Podgorica win✗ Miss
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W31W13L10W30W05L12L01L34L40WH·ARS07/05A·JED14/05H·JEZ21/05A·MOR25/05A·ATL27/06H·BRE30/06A·MLA22/07A·STR26/07H·STR01/08A·RUD05/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.272.001.431.621.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.711.501.831.671.621.38
vs Weaker (16)1.881.062.121.251.620.88
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W43W30W00D03L00D20W12L21W12LA·ISK09/04H·BUD15/04H·PET23/04A·RUD29/04H·SUT07/05A·ARS14/05H·JED21/05A·JEZ25/05H·JED22/07H·PET06/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.971.241.120.690.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.041.131.231.310.800.90
vs Weaker (7)0.860.431.250.500.330.33
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.4%
Under 2.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.0%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.5%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Dečić goals →
01234
012%8.0%4.1%1.2%0.3%
113%14%5.6%1.7%0.4%
29.8%8.7%3.9%1.1%0.3%
34.5%4.0%1.8%0.5%0.1%
41.5%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.25 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.31 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.44 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W21W00D10W20W04L10W01L22D20WH·ARS07/05A·JED14/05H·JEZ21/05A·MOR25/05A·ATL27/06H·BRE30/06A·MLA22/07A·STR26/07H·STR01/08A·RUD05/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.710.790.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.710.331.000.880.50
vs Weaker (16)0.940.501.000.620.880.38
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D20W00D02L00D20W01L11D00DA·ISK09/04H·BUD15/04H·PET23/04A·RUD29/04H·SUT07/05A·ARS14/05H·JED21/05A·JEZ25/05H·JED22/07H·PET06/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.370.590.410.230.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.430.390.540.460.300.30
vs Weaker (7)0.430.290.750.250.000.33
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W13L00D10W01L02L00D12L20WH·ARS07/05A·JED14/05H·JEZ21/05A·MOR25/05A·ATL27/06H·BRE30/06A·MLA22/07A·STR26/07H·STR01/08A·RUD05/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.290.640.750.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.070.791.500.670.750.88
vs Weaker (16)0.940.561.120.620.750.50
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D32W10W00D01L00D00D11D10W12LA·ISK09/04H·BUD15/04H·PET23/04A·RUD29/04H·SUT07/05A·ARS14/05H·JED21/05A·JEZ25/05H·JED22/07H·PET06/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.650.710.460.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.610.740.690.850.500.60
vs Weaker (7)0.430.140.500.250.330.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
BP wins
1
Draws
2
DEČ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Buducnost Podgorica vs Dečić · H/A from BP
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23ADečić Vs BP4-3
23/02/23HBP Vs Dečić1-0
15/10/22ADečić Vs BP0-0
07/08/22HBP Vs Dečić0-2

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs BP0-4
01/08/23HBP Vs Struga3-4
26/07/23AStruga Vs BP1-0
22/07/23AMladost DG Vs BP2-1
30/06/23HBP Vs Breidablik0-5
27/06/23AAtlètic Club d'Escaldes Vs BP0-3
25/05/23AMornar Vs BP0-1
21/05/23HBP Vs Jezero1-3
14/05/23AJedinstvo Vs BP1-3
07/05/23HBP Vs Arsenal Tivat1-0

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/23HDEČ Vs Petrovac1-2
22/07/23HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo2-1
25/05/23AJezero Vs DEČ2-1
21/05/23HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo2-0
14/05/23AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-0
07/05/23HDEČ Vs Sutjeska0-3
29/04/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs DEČ0-0
23/04/23HDEČ Vs Petrovac3-0
15/04/23HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica4-3
09/04/23AIskra (Montenegro) Vs DEČ1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.80
HomeWWLLL2.05
AwayWWLLW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%64%42%
AVG goals2.873.142.62
Over 1.5 %78%86%71%
Over 2.5 %52%55%50%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored1.701.911.50
Conceded1.171.231.12
BTTS46%41%50%
Clean Sheet41%45%38%
Corners7.886.009.75
Cards4.574.005.00
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.35
HomeWLWWL1.43
AwayDWDDL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%26%
AVG goals2.302.761.79
Over 1.5 %70%81%58%
Over 2.5 %45%52%37%
Over 3.5 %15%19%11%
Scored1.231.520.89
Conceded1.071.240.89
BTTS52%57%47%
Clean Sheet32%29%37%
Corners10.0011.009.00
Cards4.003.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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