Buducnost Podgorica are tipped to win this match, with a 52% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw and 21% for a win by Dečić. The model expects 2.6 goals in total, with the most likely total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. Buducnost, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, while Dečić on the road averages 0.75 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include an 74.1% chance that the match will see over 1.5 goals and a 74.0% chance of under 3.5 goals. The recent form narrative shows Buducnost coming off a draw and Dečić on a four-game winning streak, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw stunned fans, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise. Buducnost Podgorica, fresh from a draw, had been tipped to win with a 52% probability, yet the match ended in a stalemate. The model’s call was wrong. Its other selections were mixed: Over 1.5, with a 74.1% chance, missed, while Under 3.5, also at 74.0%, hit. The game’s most likely score was 1-1 at 12.9%, but the scoreline settled on 0-0, a result that surprised the model’s predictions. The away side, Dečić, continued a four-game winning streak but could not break the deadlock.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica win✗ Miss
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
0.90
2.79
0.93
2.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.25
0.83
2.20
0.60
2.29
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.89
0.94
3.11
1.11
2.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.06
1.00
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.92
0.79
1.00
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
0-0 ✓
8.7%
0-1
6.0%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Dečić goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.0%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.6%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.5%
5.2%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 1.03 points better than Dečić in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 1.56 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.06 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.25
0.80
0.20
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.61
1.22
0.78
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.23
0.38
0.31
0.29
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.23
0.23
0.29
0.29
0.17
0.17
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.43
1.71
0.36
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
1.40
0.40
1.43
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
1.72
0.33
1.89
0.33
1.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.69
0.50
0.71
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →