Buducnost Podgorica are tipped to win, with a 57% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 16% for Jezero to take the points. The model expects 2.4 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-0 for the home side, a 13.5% probability. Buducnost, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded, while Jezero, away against a stronger side, averages 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 at 99.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1%, Under 5.5 at 96.3% and Away under 2.5 goals at 95.7%. Both sides are coming off recent draws and defeats respectively, but the home side’s form and venue give them the edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica win
57.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.07
0.87
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.50
1.38
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.94
1.22
1.11
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.20
1.08
0.77
1.08
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
12.1%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.7%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.1%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Jezero goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
5.7%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.3%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.1%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica and Jezero are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Buducnost Podgorica and Jezero are level in goals scored per game (both 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.20 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Buducnost Podgorica or Draw
83.9%
Avg Implied -
57%
27%
16%
covers Buducnost Podgorica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica or Jezero
73.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
27%
16%
covers Buducnost Podgorica + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jezero
42.6%
Avg Implied -
57%
27%
16%
covers Draw + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Buducnost Podgorica, so a minus line means Buducnost Podgorica give that many goals of a start and Jezero receive them. At -1, Buducnost Podgorica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Buducnost Podgorica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica -2
14.2%
Draw -2
18.1%
Jezero +2
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica -1
32.3%
Draw -1
25.0%
Jezero +1
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica +1
83.9%
Draw +1
11.1%
Jezero -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica +2
94.9%
Draw +2
3.9%
Jezero -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.60
0.27
0.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.57
0.33
0.17
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.25
0.78
0.33
0.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.44
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.36
0.46
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.9%
Under 0.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.4%
Under 1.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.9%
Under 2.5
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.33
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.78
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.31
0.43
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.84
0.62
0.38
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
Under 0.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.3%
Under 1.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.7%
Under
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Buducnost Podgorica's squad is €2m more valuable than Jezero's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Jezero have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG