Buducnost Podgorica are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance of a home win, 22% for a draw and 16% for an away win. The prediction favours a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, with a 10% probability, and expects an average of 3.2 goals, the most common total being three. Buducnost’s home form shows they average 2.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against weaker opponents, while Mladost DG, playing away against a stronger side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.2% probability. The recent form narrative is that Buducnost comes off a draw, whereas Mladost enters after a defeat. The model’s selection list includes the home win (62%), draw (22%), away win (16%) and the Over 1.5 goal pick (84.2%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Mladost DG snatched a 1-2 win, overturning Buducnost Podgorica’s home advantage. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 62% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 84.2% chance, as the match produced three goals. Buducnost, coming off a draw in their last five, failed to extend their run, while Mladost, after a defeat, finally broke their slump. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away victory, leaving the predicted 3-goal total unfulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica win✗ Miss
62.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG win✓ Hit
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.33
2.07
1.47
1.53
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.46
1.71
1.71
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (17)
2.18
1.24
2.38
1.25
2.00
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.63
1.00
1.69
1.14
1.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.68
0.92
1.50
1.10
1.90
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.20
1.00
2.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.2%
3-0
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Mladost DG goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.7%
10.0%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.8%
7.2%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.7%
3.9%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Mladost DG goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.77 points better than Mladost DG in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.81 goals better than Mladost DG in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.44 goals better than Mladost DG in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.07
0.73
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.77
0.86
1.14
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.47
1.25
0.38
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.68
0.33
0.58
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.73
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.76
1.12
0.88
0.89
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost DG
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.62
0.94
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
1.00
0.58
0.92
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mladost DG have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mladost DG have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mladost DG have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mladost DG have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Sutjeska
Jezero
Petrovac
Arsenal Tivat
Jedinstvo
Rudar (Montenegro)
Otrant-Olympic
Mladost Lješkopolje