The defensive figures set the tone for this tight encounter. Buducnost Podgorica have been solid at home, conceding only 0.5 goals on average, while Mornar’s away form shows a slightly higher concession rate of 0.71. Both sides have similar scoring averages, 0.83 for Buducnost and 1.29 for Mornar, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The model picks a home win with a 39% probability, followed by a 33% chance of a draw and 28% for an away victory. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (94.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.1%) and Home +2 handicap (89.4%). Buducnost’s recent draw against Bokelj and Mornar’s unbeaten run, highlighted by a 1-1 draw with Petrovac, add context to the low-scoring projection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica win
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.07
0.87
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.50
1.38
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.94
1.22
1.11
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.60
1.73
0.47
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
0.59
1.54
0.46
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.6%
Under 2.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.8%
Under 3.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.8%
1-0
13.0%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.4%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Mornar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.5%
2
8.3%
7.7%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica is 1.00 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.93 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.13 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Buducnost Podgorica or Draw
71.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
33%
28%
covers Buducnost Podgorica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica or Mornar
67.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
33%
28%
covers Buducnost Podgorica + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mornar
60.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
33%
28%
covers Draw + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Buducnost Podgorica, so a minus line means Buducnost Podgorica give that many goals of a start and Mornar receive them. At -1, Buducnost Podgorica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Buducnost Podgorica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica -2
5.6%
Draw -2
11.6%
Mornar +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica -1
17.2%
Draw -1
22.2%
Mornar +1
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica +1
71.9%
Draw +1
17.7%
Mornar -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Buducnost Podgorica)
Buducnost Podgorica +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.6%
Mornar -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.60
0.27
0.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.57
0.33
0.17
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.25
0.78
0.33
0.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.26
0.77
0.23
0.79
0.29
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.33
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.78
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.33
0.77
0.23
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG