Buducnost Podgorica are the clear favourites, with a 57% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 19% for Otrant-Olympic to take the victory. The model expects 2.9 goals overall, with the most likely total being two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% probability. In home form Buducnost have been prolific, scoring 2.71 goals per game and conceding only 0.86 against weaker opposition, while Otrant-Olympic have been solid on the road, scoring 2.71 and conceding 0.86 as well. The only selection offered is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.3% chance of success. The model’s pick is a home win, and the overall shape of the match points to a closely contested encounter with Buducnost likely to edge out a victory.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Buducnost Podgorica, failed to materialise as the game finished 1-1, a draw that extended their recent form of DLDLW and left them coming off a 0-0 stalemate. The model had given the home side a 57% chance of victory, but the result proved wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model assigned an 80.3% probability and it hit, as two goals were indeed scored. With the final score of 1-1, the model’s prediction of a home win was incorrect, while its Over 1.5 call was accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica win✗ Miss
56.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.13
2.25
1.00
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.18
1.89
1.11
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
2.38
1.08
2.71
0.86
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.67
2.29
0.57
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.50
0.90
1.62
0.75
1.42
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
2.70
0.20
3.17
0.33
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
9.0%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
6.3%
3-0
6.1%
1-2
5.4%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Otrant-Olympic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.4%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
1
9.0%
11%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.9%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.1%
6.3%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.0%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Otrant-Olympic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 1.39 points better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 1.31 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.67 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.94
0.44
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.41
0.89
0.44
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.62
1.00
0.43
0.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.13
1.14
0.07
0.75
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.20
0.75
0.12
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
87% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.31
0.56
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.76
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.46
1.71
0.43
1.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.14
0.50
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.70
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.20
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica's squad is €2m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Otrant-Olympic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Otrant-Olympic have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Otrant-Olympic have a similar defence value (both €2m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
BP wins
0
Draws
0
OTR wins
Head-to-head
Buducnost Podgorica vs Otrant-Olympic · H/A from BP
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →