The match between Burgos and FC Andorra sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win but leaving the draw and away win as realistic alternatives. Home win probability 40 %, draw 30 %, away win 30 %. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total of two goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3 % chance. Burgos, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.73 conceded, while FC Andorra on the road against a similar tier averages 1.73 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls93.4 %, Over 2.5 cards92.6 %, Over 21.5 fouls86.1 %, Over 3.5 cards82.6 %, Under 3.578.3 %, Under 11.5 corners75.4 %, and Over 23.5 fouls75.1 %. Burgos entered the game after a defeat to Sporting Gijón, while FC Andorra came off a win over AD Ceuta FC, adding to the intrigue.
Results analysis
The match ended 1-0 in favour of Burgos, a result that matches the model’s pre-match pick of a home win with a 40 % probability. The win extends Burgos’ recent run of four victories after a defeat to Sporting Gijón, while FC Andorra, fresh from a 5-1 win over AD Ceuta FC, finished on a low note. The model’s favourite was correct, confirming the 40 % chance forecast. Among the suggested selections, Over 2.5 cards (92.6 %) and Over 3.5 cards (82.6 %) hit, as did Under 3.5 (78.3 %) and Under 11.5 corners (75.4 %). Over 19.5 fouls (93.4 %) and Over 21.5 fouls (86.1 %) missed, as did Over 23.5 fouls (75.1 %). The overall prediction was largely accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burgos win✓ Hit
39.5%
Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.48
Edge
-22.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.91
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 15.2% · @ 5.98
Edge
+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.73
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.97
0.83
1.20
0.73
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Andorra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.60
1.33
1.73
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
6.00
2.00
6.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.52
1.31
1.29
1.29
1.73
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.89-6.6%
Under 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.82+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
10.6%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.5%
Burgos goals ↓
FC Andorra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.8%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.4%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.6%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burgos goals (down), columns = FC Andorra goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Racing Santander
1.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.83
Malaga
1.76
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Granada CF
1.14
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Mirandes
0.95
Huesca
0.90
Cultural Leonesa
0.88
Zaragoza
0.86
Burgos is 0.33 points better than FC Andorra in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing Santander
2.14
Almeria
1.87
Malaga
1.72
Castellón
1.66
Deportivo La Coruna
1.55
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Real Sociedad II
1.24
Eibar
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Mirandes
1.12
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Huesca
0.98
Cadiz
0.98
Cultural Leonesa
0.93
Zaragoza
0.83
Burgos is 0.33 goals worse than FC Andorra in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.05
Malaga
1.17
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
Sporting Gijon
1.29
FC Andorra
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Valladolid
1.36
Zaragoza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Racing Santander
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Huesca
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.62
Mirandes
1.64
Burgos is 0.50 goals better than FC Andorra in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Racing Santander
52%
Almeria
52%
Malaga
52%
Leganes
51%
Deportivo La Coruna
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Cultural Leonesa
50%
Eibar
49%
Zaragoza
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Huesca
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Mirandes
43%
Albacete
42%
Burgos is 14.5 percentage points worse than FC Andorra in terms of average possession (46% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burgos
For 3.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.6 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Andorra
For 4.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.8
8.4
5.4
5.7
5.2
26.9
26.8
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
8.7
8.9
8.4
5.6
5.8
5.3
26.9
26.9
26.9
vs Weaker (3)
7.5
6.0
9.0
3.3
3.0
3.5
26.0
23.0
29.0
% over line
35%
36%
35%
80%
84%
76%
84%
84%
83%
% under line
65%
64%
65%
20%
16%
24%
16%
16%
17%
This opponent (FC Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Andorra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.6
9.8
5.2
5.6
4.8
28.0
26.9
29.1
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
8.0
18.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
28.5
29.0
28.0
vs Similar (44)
9.0
8.6
9.4
5.5
5.9
5.2
28.1
27.0
29.1
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
9.0
-
1.2
2.5
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
43%
33%
55%
80%
80%
80%
83%
75%
91%
% under line
57%
67%
45%
20%
20%
20%
17%
25%
9%
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
11.0
Cordoba
10.9
Racing Santander
10.5
Zaragoza
10.1
Castellón
9.9
Huesca
9.7
Almeria
9.7
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Granada CF
9.3
Eibar
9.3
FC Andorra
9.3
Mirandes
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.2
Malaga
9.2
Real Sociedad II
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
Cultural Leonesa
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.9
Burgos
8.6
Las Palmas
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.5
Zaragoza
6.2
Castellón
6.1
Burgos
5.9
Real Sociedad II
5.8
Cordoba
5.8
Mirandes
5.6
Granada CF
5.6
Almeria
5.5
Malaga
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Eibar
5.3
AD Ceuta FC
5.3
Cultural Leonesa
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Huesca
5.1
Leganes
5.1
Cadiz
5.0
Las Palmas
4.7
Albacete
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.4
Valladolid
28.4
Mirandes
27.6
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
FC Andorra
27.4
Castellón
27.2
Granada CF
27.2
Las Palmas
27.2
Racing Santander
27.1
Zaragoza
27.1
Burgos
26.8
Almeria
26.7
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.9
Cultural Leonesa
25.9
Cadiz
25.7
Malaga
25.2
Huesca
25.0
Deportivo La Coruna
23.7
Sporting Gijon
22.2
Albacete
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.5%
Under 9.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.6%
Under 3.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
86.1%
Under 21.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.48
0.53
0.40
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Andorra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.47
0.73
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.52
0.36
0.64
0.93
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.34
0.67
0.33
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Andorra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.79
0.93
0.64
0.80
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Andorra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RS (37)
€82m
ALM (35)
€69m
DLC (33)
€58m
LP (36)
€53m
MAL (32)
€35m
VAL (35)
€35m
SG (29)
€33m
GC (31)
€31m
FA (30)
€26m
CAS (40)
€24m
MIR (32)
€23m
BUR (33)
€21m
CAD (32)
€21m
LEG (28)
€20m
COR (29)
€18m
ZAR (36)
€18m
CL (33)
€17m
EIB (31)
€16m
HUE (33)
€16m
ALB (28)
€15m
ACF (30)
€14m
Burgos's squad is €4m less valuable than FC Andorra's (€21m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DLC (10)
€43m
RS (14)
€42m
ALM (13)
€37m
MAL (11)
€24m
VAL (15)
€20m
SG (12)
€20m
LP (17)
€19m
CAS (20)
€16m
GC (12)
€15m
FA (13)
€12m
LEG (12)
€10m
CAD (14)
€10m
MIR (13)
€9m
ACF (15)
€9m
BUR (11)
€8m
HUE (12)
€8m
CL (12)
€8m
EIB (12)
€7m
ZAR (13)
€6m
COR (9)
€6m
ALB (7)
€4m
Burgos's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Andorra's (€8m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALM (6)
€22m
RS (6)
€17m
LP (3)
€9m
ZAR (8)
€7m
MIR (6)
€7m
BUR (9)
€7m
VAL (6)
€6m
GC (7)
€6m
ALB (9)
€5m
COR (6)
€5m
MAL (8)
€4m
DLC (6)
€4m
SG (5)
€4m
CAD (6)
€4m
FA (5)
€4m
HUE (8)
€4m
LEG (4)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
ACF (5)
€2m
CAS (4)
€2m
CL (6)
€2m
Burgos's midfield is €3m more valuable than FC Andorra's (€7m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (16)
€25m
RS (17)
€24m
DLC (17)
€11m
GC (12)
€11m
SG (12)
€10m
FA (12)
€10m
ALM (16)
€9m
VAL (14)
€9m
CL (15)
€7m
MIR (13)
€7m
MAL (13)
€7m
BUR (13)
€7m
COR (14)
€7m
CAD (12)
€6m
CAS (16)
€6m
LEG (12)
€6m
EIB (13)
€6m
ALB (12)
€6m
HUE (13)
€5m
ZAR (15)
€4m
ACF (10)
€3m
Burgos's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Andorra's (€7m vs €10m).
Spain: Segunda División 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
Zaragoza