Burnley are tipped to win this Championship encounter, with a 43% chance of a home triumph, 29% for a draw and 28% for Bristol City to lift the trophy. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Burnley, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Bristol City on the road average 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.6% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (95.8% with a 4% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.9% with a 5% edge). Burnley’s recent draw against Middlesbrough and Bristol City’s two-game winning run add context to the forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burnley win
42.7%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.82
Edge
-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
Dafabet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.67
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.68
Bristol City win
28.1%
Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 4.07
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.12
Marathonbet
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burnley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.87
1.31
1.62
0.79
2.14
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.50
1.75
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
2.15
1.30
1.60
0.90
2.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
1.44
1.57
1.57
1.31
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.25-2.1%
Under 1.5
27.5%
@ 3.67+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.84
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.62
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.5%
@ 1.83-6.1%
Under 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.95+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.2%
@ 3.03-6.6%
Under 3.5
75.8%
@ 1.35+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Unibet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
51.4%
@ 1.74-1.9%
No
48.6%
@ 1.99+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
No
Betfair
2.05
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.62+7.2%
1-0
10.3%@ 7.03+4.0%
0-0
9.5%@ 10.56+5.3%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.80+3.2%
2-0
8.1%@ 8.34+2.8%
0-1
7.8%@ 11.17+3.8%
1-2
6.9%@ 12.06+3.2%
0-2
4.9%@ 19.78+2.7%
Burnley goals ↓
Bristol City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.1%
8.9%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burnley goals (down), columns = Bristol City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Burnley is 0.37 points better than Bristol City in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Burnley is 0.35 goals better than Bristol City in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Burnley is 0.26 goals better than Bristol City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burnley
For 5.1 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol City
For 4.5 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.2
2.7
3.7
19.9
19.4
20.4
vs Stronger (14)
9.9
9.6
10.1
2.9
2.1
3.7
20.4
20.6
20.1
vs Similar (33)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.2
2.7
3.9
19.5
18.3
20.8
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
8.5
19.0
3.7
4.5
2.0
22.3
25.5
16.0
% over line
48%
48%
48%
42%
30%
57%
36%
26%
48%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
58%
70%
43%
64%
74%
52%
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.9
10.1
3.9
3.5
4.3
21.4
19.4
23.6
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
9.0
11.0
6.5
6.0
7.0
29.0
25.0
33.0
vs Similar (46)
9.7
9.7
9.8
3.8
3.5
4.1
21.0
19.3
22.9
vs Weaker (2)
16.5
17.0
16.0
5.0
3.0
7.0
22.5
16.0
29.0
% over line
54%
46%
62%
56%
46%
67%
48%
27%
71%
% under line
46%
54%
38%
44%
54%
33%
52%
73%
29%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.8%
@ 1.75+0.7%
Under 9.5
46.2%
@ 1.98-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.5%
@ 2.00+0.1%
Under 3.5
53.5%
@ 1.73-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
48.3%
Under 21.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burnley or Draw
71.9%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.22
Edge
-4.9%
43%
29%
28%
covers Burnley + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Burnley or Bristol City
70.8%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.9%
43%
29%
28%
covers Burnley + Bristol City
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Draw or Bristol City
57.3%
Avg Implied 48.5% · @ 1.94
Edge
+8.8%
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Bristol City
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burnley over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
@ 1.16-4.5%
Under
24.6%
@ 4.59+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Burnley over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
@ 1.84-9.7%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.88+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Betfair
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Unibet
1.90
BetVictor
1.87
Burnley over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
@ 3.68-8.5%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.24+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Burnley over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
@ 8.22-5.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Bristol City over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
@ 1.44+2.2%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.59-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
BetVictor
2.60
Bristol City over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
@ 3.20+0.8%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.31-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Pinnacle
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bristol City over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
@ 8.57-1.0%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.10
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bristol City over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
@ 19.00-2.5%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burnley, so a minus line means Burnley give that many goals of a start and Bristol City receive them. At -1, Burnley must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burnley win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burnley)
Burnley -2
7.9%
@ 6.65-5.6%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 5.17-4.2%
Bristol City +2
79.0%
@ 1.30+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Burnley)
Burnley -1
21.0%
@ 3.19-7.2%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.61-3.3%
Bristol City +1
57.3%
@ 1.92+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
Unibet
3.05
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Away
Unibet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (Burnley)
Burnley +1
71.9%
@ 1.22-0.5%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 5.16-0.5%
Bristol City -1
11.4%
@ 8.44+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Handicap +2 (Burnley)
Burnley +2
88.6%
@ 1.05+0.9%
Draw +2
8.0%
@ 11.17-0.2%
Bristol City -2
3.4%
@ 22.67-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.56
0.94
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.10
0.50
1.10
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.78
0.64
0.71
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.9%
@ 1.35+0.0%
Under 0.5
31.1%
@ 2.99-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.68-2.3%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.42+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
Under
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 6.69-3.5%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.08+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.0%
@ 1.76+1.3%
Under
46.0%
@ 1.96-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Burnley over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
@ 4.89-6.0%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.14+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Burnley over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
@ 10.50-5.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bristol City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.1%
@ 2.49+4.6%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.49-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Bristol City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.0%
@ 9.14-2.2%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Bristol City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.75
0.69
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.05
0.80
0.50
0.30
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.87
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.67
0.93
0.86
0.69
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.21+1.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.03-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Under
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.4%
@ 2.03-3.5%
Under 1.5
57.6%
@ 1.73+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
@ 4.26-4.3%
Under 2.5
82.5%
@ 1.19+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
10Bet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
@ 1.53+0.2%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.37-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Burnley over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.0%
@ 3.48-4.6%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.26+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Burnley over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 8.75-5.3%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Bristol City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.1%
@ 2.03-1.6%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.70+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Bristol City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.2%
@ 6.37-2.4%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Bristol City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 11.75-5.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+5.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+2.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+1.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+3.5%
Under 4.5
89.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+5.2%
Home +2 handicap
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
1.08
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+2.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+6.0%
Under 5.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+8.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
+4.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
1.30
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+9.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+1.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.26
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+4.6%
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+6.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-4.5%
Over 1.5
72.5%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-2.1%
Under 4.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.9%
1.22
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-4.9%
Home +1 handicap
71.9%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-0.5%
Home or Away
70.8%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
-3.9%
Away under 1.5 goals
70.1%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-0.8%
Under 11.5 corners
70.0%
1.36
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
-
-
+2.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burnley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming50%
Josh Laurent20%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zian Flemming25%
Oliver Sonne25%
Josh Laurent20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Hannibal Mejbri17%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Alleyne25%
Marcus Edwards20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen17%
Zeki Amdouni17%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Mike Trésor0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming75%
Josh Laurent20%
Aaron Ramsey20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Bristol City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Twine50%
Dominic Ballard40%
J. Knight20%
L. Tolaj20%
Lisav Naif Eissat20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Rio Cardines0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Randell33%
J. Knight20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
L. Tolaj0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rio Cardines75%
J. Wallace20%
L. Tolaj20%
C. Pring0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Tolaj40%
S. Twine25%
S. Greenwood20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
George Tanner0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Burnley's squad is €50m more valuable than Bristol City's (€115m vs €66m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Burnley's attack is €41m more valuable than Bristol City's (€70m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Burnley's midfield is €10m less valuable than Bristol City's (€8m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Burnley's defence is €19m more valuable than Bristol City's (€37m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Preston