This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
0.80
1.00
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.75
1.25
1.75
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.31
0.64
0.73
1.13
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.7%
No
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.2%
3-0
13.2%
4-0
9.9%
1-0
8.4%
2-1 ✓
7.1%
3-1
7.0%
5-0
5.9%
4-1
5.3%
Burnley goals ↓
Derby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.4%
5.2%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
2
13%
7.1%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
3
13%
7.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
4
9.9%
5.3%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burnley goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Burnley is 2.00 points worse than Derby in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Burnley is 1.00 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Burnley is 1.50 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burnley
For 4.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
For 4.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.8
3.5
3.5
3.4
23.1
22.3
23.9
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
0.0
-
0.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (44)
8.8
9.0
8.6
3.5
3.3
3.8
23.2
22.1
24.2
vs Weaker (5)
12.2
14.0
10.5
3.4
5.5
2.0
22.2
23.5
21.0
% over line
46%
39%
52%
52%
52%
52%
61%
57%
65%
% under line
54%
61%
48%
48%
48%
48%
39%
43%
35%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
21.4
21.5
21.3
vs Stronger (7)
11.7
11.5
12.0
3.0
3.5
2.3
20.1
20.8
19.3
vs Similar (42)
9.9
9.9
9.8
3.5
3.3
3.6
21.6
21.6
21.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
54%
54%
54%
42%
42%
42%
52%
50%
54%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
58%
58%
58%
48%
50%
46%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Coventry
11.5
Tottenham
11.2
Sheffield Weds
11.1
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
11.1
Portsmouth
11.0
Brentford
11.0
Huddersfield
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Luton
10.8
Sheffield United
10.8
QPR
10.8
Barnsley
10.7
Doncaster
10.7
Bromley
10.6
Crawley Town
10.6
Millwall
10.5
Liverpool
10.4
Aston Villa
10.4
Everton
10.4
Oxford
10.3
Hull
10.3
Reading
10.3
Nottingham Forest
10.3
Ipswich
10.3
Fulham
10.3
Stoke
10.2
Southampton
10.2
Middlesbrough
10.2
West Brom
10.2
Derby
10.1
Shrewsbury
10.1
Peterboro
10.1
Leicester
10.0
Manchester City
10.0
Newport County
10.0
Norwich
10.0
Watford
10.0
Crystal Palace
10.0
Leeds
10.0
Rotherham
10.0
Port Vale
10.0
Bristol Rvs
10.0
West Ham
9.9
Swindon
9.9
Barrow
9.9
Exeter
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Walsall
9.8
Brighton
9.8
Wolves
9.7
Chesterfield
9.7
Grimsby
9.7
Charlton
9.7
Crewe
9.7
Bristol City
9.7
Cardiff
9.7
Chelsea
9.7
Sunderland
9.7
Blackburn
9.7
Barnet
9.7
Colchester
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Stevenage
9.7
Swansea
9.6
Blackpool
9.6
Burton
9.6
Lincoln
9.6
Bradford
9.6
Preston
9.6
Plymouth
9.6
Bolton
9.5
Wigan
9.5
Leyton Orient
9.5
Mansfield
9.5
Arsenal
9.4
Notts County
9.3
Wrexham
9.3
Oldham
9.3
Cambridge
9.3
Salford
9.3
Fleetwood Town
9.3
Wycombe
9.3
Burnley
9.1
AFC Wimbledon
9.1
Birmingham
9.0
Tranmere
8.9
Stockport
8.8
Northampton
8.8
Accrington
8.8
Milton Keynes Dons
8.6
Gillingham
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
5.2
Accrington
5.0
Bournemouth
4.8
Bradford
4.8
Gillingham
4.7
Chelsea
4.7
Watford
4.6
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Crewe
4.5
Colchester
4.5
Grimsby
4.4
Wolves
4.4
Newcastle
4.4
Aston Villa
4.4
Brighton
4.4
Salford
4.4
Tranmere
4.4
Chesterfield
4.3
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.3
Portsmouth
4.3
Crystal Palace
4.2
Exeter
4.1
Crawley Town
4.1
Blackburn
4.1
Norwich
4.0
Cambridge
4.0
Liverpool
4.0
Stoke
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Peterboro
4.0
Sheffield United
4.0
Stevenage
4.0
Preston
4.0
Shrewsbury
4.0
Barrow
4.0
Walsall
4.0
Ipswich
4.0
Stockport
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Doncaster
3.9
Bromley
3.9
Tottenham
3.9
Southampton
3.9
Luton
3.9
Burton
3.9
West Brom
3.9
Port Vale
3.9
Middlesbrough
3.9
Oldham
3.9
Notts County
3.8
Fulham
3.8
Charlton
3.8
Brentford
3.8
Wigan
3.8
AFC Wimbledon
3.8
Burnley
3.8
Barnet
3.8
Arsenal
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wycombe
3.8
Coventry
3.8
Northampton
3.7
Swansea
3.7
QPR
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Bristol Rvs
3.7
Cardiff
3.7
Huddersfield
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Plymouth
3.7
Newport County
3.7
West Ham
3.7
Barnsley
3.6
Mansfield
3.6
Cheltenham
3.6
Sheffield Weds
3.6
Oxford
3.6
Hull
3.6
Leyton Orient
3.6
Everton
3.5
Reading
3.5
Swindon
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Bristol City
3.5
Derby
3.5
Leeds
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Blackpool
3.3
Millwall
3.2
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oldham
28.5
Barnet
25.8
Accrington
25.7
Crewe
25.5
Bolton
25.4
Salford
25.3
Stevenage
25.2
Cheltenham
25.2
Birmingham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Gillingham
24.7
Cambridge
24.7
Bradford
24.6
Wycombe
24.6
Grimsby
24.6
Millwall
24.5
Blackburn
24.5
Exeter
24.5
Stockport
24.4
Wolves
24.4
Rotherham
24.3
Bournemouth
24.3
Milton Keynes Dons
24.1
Wigan
24.1
Portsmouth
24.1
Luton
24.0
Doncaster
24.0
Preston
23.8
Lincoln
23.8
Swansea
23.8
Southampton
23.8
Mansfield
23.7
Peterboro
23.7
Charlton
23.6
Tottenham
23.6
Shrewsbury
23.5
Sheffield Weds
23.4
Sunderland
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Watford
23.1
Burnley
23.1
Tranmere
23.0
Cardiff
23.0
Reading
23.0
Brighton
23.0
Crawley Town
22.9
Northampton
22.9
Fleetwood Town
22.9
QPR
22.9
Plymouth
22.9
Ipswich
22.8
Aston Villa
22.8
Huddersfield
22.8
Newcastle
22.7
Blackpool
22.7
Norwich
22.7
Bristol Rvs
22.6
Leeds
22.6
Newport County
22.6
Chesterfield
22.5
Sheffield United
22.5
Hull
22.2
Chelsea
22.1
Port Vale
22.1
West Ham
22.1
Barrow
22.1
Middlesbrough
22.0
Notts County
21.9
Manchester United
21.8
Bromley
21.8
Swindon
21.7
Walsall
21.6
Harrogate
21.6
West Brom
21.6
Everton
21.5
Crystal Palace
21.5
Burton
21.5
Leicester
21.4
Stoke
21.4
Nottingham Forest
21.3
Leyton Orient
21.3
Derby
21.3
Coventry
21.3
Oxford
21.3
Wrexham
21.2
Bristol City
21.2
Fulham
21.1
Arsenal
21.1
Barnsley
21.0
Liverpool
20.8
Brentford
19.0
Manchester City
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.3%
Under 9.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.6%
Under 3.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.9%
Under 21.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burnley or Draw✓ Hit
96.4%
Avg Implied -
86%
11%
4%
covers Burnley + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burnley or Derby✓ Hit
89.1%
Avg Implied -
86%
11%
4%
covers Burnley + Derby
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Derby✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied -
86%
11%
4%
covers Draw + Derby
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burnley over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.0%
Under
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burnley, so a minus line means Burnley give that many goals of a start and Derby receive them. At -1, Burnley must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burnley win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burnley)Actual: Derby
Burnley -2
46.3%
Draw -2
21.8%
Derby +2
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Burnley)Actual: Draw
Burnley -1
68.0%
Draw -1
17.5%
Derby +1
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Burnley)Actual: Burnley
Burnley +1
96.4%
Draw +1
2.7%
Derby -1
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Burnley)Actual: Burnley
Burnley +2
99.2%
Draw +2
0.7%
Derby -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.30
1.00
0.21
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.31
1.00
0.25
1.07
0.36
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.40
0.47
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.38
0.27
0.36
0.33
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.20
0.71
0.14
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.12
0.58
0.17
0.50
0.07
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.40
0.53
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.92
0.36
0.36
0.80
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burnley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming34%
Jaydon Banel25%
Jaidon Anthony24%
Oliver Sonne20%
Josh Cullen11%
Lyle Foster11%
Loum Tchaouna9%
Ashley Barnes9%
Lesley Ugochukwu8%
Axel Tuanzebe6%
Josh Laurent6%
Marcus Edwards4%
Armando Broja4%
Hannibal Mejbri3%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Florentino Luís0%
Kyle Walker0%
Joe Worrall0%
James Ward-Prowse0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Mike Trésor0%
Hjalmar Ekdal0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Maxime Estève0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Quilindschy Hartman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hannibal Mejbri37%
Ashley Barnes27%
Bashir Humphreys27%
Kyle Walker25%
Josh Laurent22%
Florentino Luís21%
Zian Flemming16%
Lyle Foster15%
Josh Cullen11%
Jaidon Anthony11%
Oliver Sonne10%
Loum Tchaouna9%
Lesley Ugochukwu8%
James Ward-Prowse7%
Axel Tuanzebe6%
Hjalmar Ekdal5%
Lucas Pires4%
Quilindschy Hartman4%
Marcus Edwards4%
Martin Dúbravka3%
Maxime Estève3%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Joe Worrall0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Max Weiss0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Quilindschy Hartman17%
Marcus Edwards15%
Mike Trésor12%
Josh Cullen11%
Lyle Foster11%
Hannibal Mejbri10%
Armando Broja8%
James Ward-Prowse7%
Jacob Bruun Larsen7%
Florentino Luís6%
Kyle Walker6%
Jaidon Anthony5%
Hjalmar Ekdal5%
Loum Tchaouna3%
Lesley Ugochukwu3%
Joe Worrall0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Ashley Barnes0%
Axel Tuanzebe0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Maxime Estève0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming16%
Jaidon Anthony8%
Loum Tchaouna6%
Lucas Pires4%
Marcus Edwards4%
Armando Broja4%
Josh Laurent3%
Lesley Ugochukwu3%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Florentino Luís0%
Kyle Walker0%
Joe Worrall0%
James Ward-Prowse0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Ashley Barnes0%
Axel Tuanzebe0%
Josh Cullen0%
Mike Trésor0%
Hjalmar Ekdal0%
Lyle Foster0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Maxime Estève0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Weiss0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Quilindschy Hartman0%
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Carlton Morris32%
Patrick Agyemang24%
Sammie Szmodics23%
Rhian Brewster23%
Jaydon Banel21%
Ben Brereton Díaz17%
Sondre Langås12%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen9%
Bobby Clark9%
Matthew Clarke7%
David Ozoh6%
Liam Thompson6%
Oscar Fraulo5%
Joe Ward5%
Craig Forsyth5%
Ebou Adams4%
Andreas Weimann4%
Callum Elder3%
Dion Sanderson2%
Josh Vickers0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Lewis Travis0%
Danny Batth0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Derry Murkin0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Max Johnston0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis39%
Sammie Szmodics38%
Ebou Adams35%
Callum Elder30%
Liam Thompson28%
Dion Sanderson20%
Oscar Fraulo20%
David Ozoh20%
Matthew Clarke20%
Ben Brereton Díaz20%
Bobby Clark18%
Carlton Morris16%
Sondre Langås16%
Patrick Agyemang16%
Ryan Nyambe14%
Josh Vickers11%
Kayden Jackson10%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen9%
Craig Forsyth9%
Danny Batth8%
Derry Murkin8%
Andreas Weimann7%
Joe Ward7%
Jaydon Banel7%
Max Johnston7%
Rhian Brewster3%
Jacob Widell Zetterström3%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Callum Elder20%
Joe Ward20%
Derry Murkin17%
Andreas Weimann11%
Corey Blackett-Taylor10%
Matthew Clarke9%
Patrick Agyemang8%
Sammie Szmodics8%
Ben Brereton Díaz7%
Max Johnston7%
Bobby Clark7%
Rhian Brewster6%
Carlton Morris6%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen6%
Sondre Langås4%
Lewis Travis4%
Josh Vickers0%
Ebou Adams0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Danny Batth0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Dion Sanderson0%
Liam Thompson0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Dajaune Brown0%
David Ozoh0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Agyemang18%
Carlton Morris10%
Sammie Szmodics8%
Ben Brereton Díaz5%
Matthew Clarke4%
Sondre Langås4%
Rhian Brewster3%
Bobby Clark2%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen0%
Josh Vickers0%
Ebou Adams0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Andreas Weimann0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Lewis Travis0%
Danny Batth0%
Callum Elder0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Joe Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Derry Murkin0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Dion Sanderson0%
Liam Thompson0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Max Johnston0%
Dajaune Brown0%
David Ozoh0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
Burnley's squad is €59m more valuable than Derby's (€115m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
Burnley's attack is €45m more valuable than Derby's (€70m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Burnley's midfield is €5m less valuable than Derby's (€8m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
Burnley's defence is €19m more valuable than Derby's (€37m vs €18m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brighton
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Wolves
Coventry
Ipswich
Millwall
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Hull
Wrexham
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield United
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford
Sheffield Weds