This opponent (Nimes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nimes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.13
1.43
0.93
1.94
1.31
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
1.25
1.29
1.14
1.11
1.33
vs Similar (14)
2.29
1.00
1.57
0.71
3.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Caen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.0%
0-2
10.1%
1-2 ✓
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
5.8%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
5.5%
Caen goals ↓
Nimes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
11%
10%
5.6%
2.3%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.3%
5.5%
4.6%
2.5%
1.1%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caen goals (down), columns = Nimes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Lille
1.97
Lyon
1.89
Saint Etienne
1.74
Marseille
1.61
Montpellier
1.55
Nice
1.47
Reims
1.45
Nimes
1.39
Rennes
1.37
Strasbourg
1.29
Nantes
1.26
Angers
1.21
Bordeaux
1.08
Amiens
1.00
Toulouse
1.00
Monaco
0.95
Dijon
0.89
Caen
0.87
Guingamp
0.71
Caen is 0.53 points worse than Nimes in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.76
Lyon
1.84
Lille
1.79
Marseille
1.58
Saint Etienne
1.55
Strasbourg
1.53
Nimes
1.50
Rennes
1.45
Montpellier
1.39
Nantes
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.03
Monaco
1.00
Toulouse
0.92
Bordeaux
0.89
Amiens
0.82
Dijon
0.82
Nice
0.79
Caen
0.76
Guingamp
0.74
Caen is 0.74 goals worse than Nimes in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lille
0.87
Nice
0.92
Paris Saint Germain
0.92
Saint Etienne
1.08
Bordeaux
1.11
Montpellier
1.11
Reims
1.11
Lyon
1.24
Nantes
1.26
Strasbourg
1.26
Angers
1.29
Amiens
1.37
Marseille
1.37
Rennes
1.37
Caen
1.42
Monaco
1.50
Toulouse
1.50
Nimes
1.53
Dijon
1.58
Guingamp
1.79
Caen is 0.11 goals better than Nimes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Caen
For 4.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 11.8 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nimes
For 5.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Caen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.0
9.8
4.0
4.2
3.8
26.2
27.6
24.8
vs Stronger (34)
9.9
10.1
9.6
3.8
4.4
3.3
25.7
27.0
24.6
vs Similar (16)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.4
4.0
4.9
27.3
28.8
25.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
56%
44%
58%
76%
40%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
42%
24%
60%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (Nimes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nimes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.5
5.0
5.5
4.6
25.5
23.1
27.5
vs Stronger (23)
9.2
9.7
8.8
5.4
5.8
5.0
26.5
23.4
29.0
vs Similar (27)
9.6
9.1
10.1
4.7
5.2
4.3
22.8
22.5
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
42%
42%
78%
92%
65%
73%
86%
62%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
22%
8%
35%
27%
14%
38%
This opponent (Caen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paris Saint Germain
10.8
Saint Etienne
10.5
Reims
10.4
Nantes
10.2
Guingamp
10.1
Nice
10.1
Rennes
10.0
Marseille
10.0
Dijon
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Caen
9.9
Monaco
9.6
Nimes
9.4
Strasbourg
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Lille
9.2
Amiens
9.2
Montpellier
9.0
Angers
8.9
Bordeaux
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nimes
5.0
Rennes
4.8
Toulouse
4.4
Nice
4.3
Lyon
4.1
Angers
4.1
Strasbourg
4.1
Marseille
4.0
Nantes
4.0
Caen
4.0
Guingamp
3.9
Saint Etienne
3.9
Bordeaux
3.9
Paris Saint Germain
3.8
Montpellier
3.8
Monaco
3.7
Dijon
3.6
Lille
3.5
Amiens
3.5
Reims
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Toulouse
28.1
Monaco
27.8
Rennes
27.8
Reims
27.3
Dijon
27.0
Bordeaux
26.8
Amiens
26.8
Guingamp
26.8
Montpellier
26.4
Nice
26.3
Caen
26.2
Lyon
26.2
Saint Etienne
26.1
Marseille
25.9
Nimes
25.5
Nantes
25.3
Lille
25.2
Strasbourg
25.0
Angers
24.5
Paris Saint Germain
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.3%
Under 21.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.43
0.57
0.25
0.88
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.50
0.20
0.90
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nimes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nimes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.50
0.29
0.43
0.44
0.56
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.29
0.86
0.14
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Caen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nimes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nimes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nimes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.71
0.64
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
0.85
0.80
0.70
0.30
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nimes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nimes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.86
0.64
1.06
0.81
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
0.75
1.00
0.71
0.67
0.78
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.71
0.71
0.57
1.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Caen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nimes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nimes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nimes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Caen · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alexandre Mendy23%
Gabin Tomé20%
Ilyes Najim15%
Noe Lebreton12%
Samuel Grandsir11%
Kalifa Coulibaly11%
Bilal Brahimi10%
Tidiam Gomis10%
Romain Thomas8%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Yann M'Vila5%
Lorenzo Rajot4%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Valentin Henry0%
Mathias Autret0%
Quentin Lecoeuche0%
Anthony Mandrea0%
Yannis Clementia0%
Mickaël Le Bihan0%
Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua0%
Emmanuel Ntim0%
Hugo Vandermersch0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Jules Gaudin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Brahim Traoré0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Diabe Bolumbu0%
Robin Verhaeghe0%
Mohamed Hafid0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Léo Milliner0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yann M'Vila37%
Hugo Vandermersch33%
Daylam Meddah33%
Didí Gaucho33%
Héliohdino Tavares33%
Jules Gaudin27%
Valentin Henry26%
Quentin Lecoeuche24%
Yannis Clementia22%
Noe Lebreton21%
Lorenzo Rajot15%
Diabe Bolumbu14%
Alexandre Mendy13%
Léo Milliner12%
Brahim Traoré12%
Emmanuel Ntim11%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda11%
Kalifa Coulibaly11%
Mathias Autret8%
Mickaël Le Bihan8%
Bilal Brahimi6%
Romain Thomas4%
Godson Kyeremeh3%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Anthony Mandrea0%
Samuel Grandsir0%
Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua0%
Lamine Sy0%
Ilyes Najim0%
Robin Verhaeghe0%
Mohamed Hafid0%
Gabin Tomé0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua17%
Bilal Brahimi16%
Yassine Benrahou14%
Tidiam Gomis10%
Jules Gaudin9%
Ilyes Najim8%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Alexandre Mendy6%
Yann M'Vila5%
Mickaël Le Bihan4%
Brahim Traoré4%
Didí Gaucho3%
Noe Lebreton3%
Kalifa Coulibaly0%
Valentin Henry0%
Mathias Autret0%
Quentin Lecoeuche0%
Lorenzo Rajot0%
Anthony Mandrea0%
Romain Thomas0%
Yannis Clementia0%
Samuel Grandsir0%
Emmanuel Ntim0%
Hugo Vandermersch0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Lamine Sy0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Diabe Bolumbu0%
Robin Verhaeghe0%
Mohamed Hafid0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Gabin Tomé0%
Léo Milliner0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexandre Mendy39%
Samuel Grandsir11%
Emmanuel Ntim11%
Yann M'Vila5%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Mickaël Le Bihan4%
Godson Kyeremeh3%
Bilal Brahimi3%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Kalifa Coulibaly0%
Valentin Henry0%
Mathias Autret0%
Quentin Lecoeuche0%
Lorenzo Rajot0%
Anthony Mandrea0%
Romain Thomas0%
Yannis Clementia0%
Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua0%
Hugo Vandermersch0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Jules Gaudin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Ilyes Najim0%
Brahim Traoré0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Diabe Bolumbu0%
Noe Lebreton0%
Robin Verhaeghe0%
Mohamed Hafid0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Gabin Tomé0%
Léo Milliner0%
Nimes · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malik Tchokounté29%
Rafiki Saïd27%
Moussa Koné17%
Nicolas Benezet10%
Pablo Pagis9%
Lys Mousset9%
Jens Jakob Thomasen9%
Guessouma Fofana8%
Elías Már Ómarsson8%
Jean N'Guessan6%
Lamine Fomba6%
Benoît Poulain5%
Thibault Vargas4%
Kelyan Guessoum3%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Joseph Lopy0%
Steve Ambri0%
Ronny Labonne0%
Lucas Dias0%
Patrick Burner0%
Maël Durand de Gevigney0%
Axel Maraval0%
Scotty Sadzoute0%
Mehdi Zerkane0%
Leon Delpech0%
Mahamadou Doucouré0%
Nasser Djiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lamine Fomba33%
Guessouma Fofana25%
Yassine Benrahou22%
Steve Ambri21%
Jean N'Guessan20%
Nicolas Benezet19%
Nasser Djiga19%
Kelyan Guessoum17%
Maël Durand de Gevigney16%
Ronny Labonne12%
Mehdi Zerkane11%
Malik Tchokounté11%
Patrick Burner9%
Moussa Koné8%
Elías Már Ómarsson8%
Axel Maraval7%
Joseph Lopy6%
Benoît Poulain5%
Jens Jakob Thomasen4%
Thibault Vargas4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Lys Mousset0%
Lucas Dias0%
Scotty Sadzoute0%
Leon Delpech0%
Rafiki Saïd0%
Mahamadou Doucouré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mahamadou Doucouré33%
Joseph Lopy19%
Lys Mousset18%
Thibault Vargas12%
Yassine Benrahou11%
Mehdi Zerkane11%
Malik Tchokounté11%
Rafiki Saïd10%
Pablo Pagis9%
Jens Jakob Thomasen9%
Elías Már Ómarsson8%
Steve Ambri7%
Jean N'Guessan6%
Lamine Fomba6%
Nicolas Benezet5%
Kelyan Guessoum3%
Ronny Labonne3%
Patrick Burner3%
Benoît Poulain0%
Lucas Dias0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Maël Durand de Gevigney0%
Axel Maraval0%
Moussa Koné0%
Scotty Sadzoute0%
Leon Delpech0%
Nasser Djiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pablo Pagis22%
Elías Már Ómarsson17%
Malik Tchokounté13%
Yassine Benrahou11%
Lys Mousset9%
Moussa Koné8%
Rafiki Saïd7%
Jean N'Guessan6%
Thibault Vargas4%
Ronny Labonne3%
Benoît Poulain0%
Jens Jakob Thomasen0%
Joseph Lopy0%
Lamine Fomba0%
Steve Ambri0%
Lucas Dias0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Nicolas Benezet0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Patrick Burner0%
Maël Durand de Gevigney0%
Axel Maraval0%
Scotty Sadzoute0%
Mehdi Zerkane0%
Leon Delpech0%
Mahamadou Doucouré0%
Nasser Djiga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 1 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Lille
Lyon
Saint Etienne
Marseille
Montpellier
Nice
Reims
Rennes
Strasbourg
Nantes
Angers
Bordeaux
Amiens
Toulouse
Monaco
Dijon
Guingamp