Caerau (Ely) arrive at home having just beaten Treowen Stars 3-2, a win that lifts their confidence after a mixed run of results. Their recent form shows an average of 2.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against weaker opposition, suggesting an attacking edge but a somewhat porous defence. In contrast, llanelli AFC, fresh from a 0-4 loss to Aberystwyth Town, have been prolific on the road, netting 2.33 goals per game while conceding only 0.67 against stronger opponents, indicating a potent attack and a solid back-line. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.6 goals and a most likely total of 3, 21% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% chance. The favourite result is an away win, with probabilities of 34% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 42% for an away win. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 88% probability.
The win extends Caerau (Ely)’s recent run, while llanelli AFC is coming off a defeat. The final score was 1-2, confirming an away win. The model’s favourite was an away win with a 42% probability, and it was correct. The suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 88% probability, and it hit. All other probabilities are not mentioned. The match finished as predicted, with the favoured result and the single selection both delivering.
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 2.17 | 2.00 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 1.86 | 2.14 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.89 | 2.17 | 2.43 | 1.29 | 1.55 | 2.73 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.47 | 1.27 | 3.13 | 1.27 | 1.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 2.40 | 0.60 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (20) | 2.65 | 1.30 | 3.55 | 1.18 | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| llanelli AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.82 | 0.94 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.93 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.40 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 0.70 | 2.00 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 0.73 | 1.69 | 0.54 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.54 | 0.77 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.12 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.73 | 1.07 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.25 | 0.60 | 1.55 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/10/23 | H | 1-2 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 27/09/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/08/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 06/08/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/07/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/04/24 | A | 1-3 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 27/09/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 1-4 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 16/08/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/08/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/08/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/07/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 2-5 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |