Caerau (Ely) look set to dominate the match, with a 57% chance of victory, 23% for a draw and 20% for llanelli AFC to win. The model favours a home win and expects 3.2 goals on average, with a 22% chance that the total will be exactly three. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% probability. Caerau’s home form shows they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against weaker opposition, while llanelli AFC, playing away against stronger teams, average 2.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (95.7%), Home +2 handicap (92.2%), Under 5.5 (89.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.0%) and Home under 3.5 goals (84.9%). Caerau’s recent form, coming off a win, contrasts with llanelli AFC’s recent defeat.
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.17 | 1.63 | 2.13 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.59 | 1.82 | 2.67 | 2.17 | 2.55 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 2.63 | 0.73 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 2.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.56 | 2.56 | 0.64 | 2.27 | 0.50 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| llanelli AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 0.41 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.17 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.36 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.97 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.65 | 1.24 | 1.57 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.08 | 0.62 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.47 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.20 | 1.48 | 0.27 | 1.36 | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 97.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 95.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 92.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 89.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 87.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 83.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 11/10/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/11/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/10/23 | H | 1-2 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |