Caernarfon Town’s recent form shows a mixed bag, but their home attack averages 2.29 goals per game while conceding 1.21, suggesting a decent defensive base. Barry Town, on a five-game winning streak, averages 2.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded on the road, indicating a potent attack and solid defense against similar opponents. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.6 goals, and the most likely total is three goals, with a 21% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.6% probability. The favoured outcome is an away win, with the probabilities laid out as 34% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 43% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.8%), Under 6.5 (92.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.6%), Over 1.5 (88.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (85.4%), Under 5.5 (84.1%), and Away +2 handicap (82.6%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Caernarfon Town win
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barry Town win
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.30
2.12
1.50
1.71
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.12
1.12
2.29
1.21
1.90
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.87
1.86
0.57
2.19
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
2.04
0.79
1.82
0.36
2.23
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.25
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.3%
Under 2.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.1%
Under 3.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.9%
No
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
5.1%
0-2
4.7%
2-3
4.5%
3-1
4.5%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Barry Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
4.1%
4.7%
2.9%
1.4%
1
3.8%
9.6%
8.2%
5.1%
2.4%
2
4.1%
7.6%
7.2%
4.5%
2.1%
3
2.4%
4.5%
4.2%
2.6%
1.2%
4
1.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Barry Town goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Caernarfon Town is 1.00 points worse than Barry Town in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Caernarfon Town is 0.33 goals worse than Barry Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Caernarfon Town is 0.33 goals worse than Barry Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Caernarfon Town or Draw
59.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
24%
41%
covers Caernarfon Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town or Barry Town
76.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
24%
41%
covers Caernarfon Town + Barry Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Barry Town
64.4%
Avg Implied -
36%
24%
41%
covers Draw + Barry Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 3.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Caernarfon Town, so a minus line means Caernarfon Town give that many goals of a start and Barry Town receive them. At -1, Caernarfon Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Caernarfon Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town -2
7.9%
Draw -2
10.8%
Barry Town +2
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town -1
18.7%
Draw -1
17.0%
Barry Town +1
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town +1
59.2%
Draw +1
18.3%
Barry Town -1
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town +2
77.4%
Draw +2
12.5%
Barry Town -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.06
0.75
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.54
1.14
0.57
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.64
0.14
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.29
0.73
0.09
1.08
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.06
0.75
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.58
1.14
0.64
1.40
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.21
0.43
1.12
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.50
1.09
0.27
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell