Caernarfon Town’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-0 victory over Trefelin set the tone for a high-scoring encounter, as the model projects an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, with a 22% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.3% probability. The model favours a home win, with a 41% chance, a draw at 25% and an away win at 33%. Caernarfon’s home form shows they average 2.29 goals scored and concede 1.21 against similar opposition, while Cambrian & Clydach, on a 2-game winning run, average 2.17 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded away. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.5%), Under 5.5 (89.0%), Over 1.5 (84.4%), Home +2 handicap (83.6%) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Caernarfon Town win
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.30
2.12
1.50
1.71
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.12
1.12
2.29
1.21
1.90
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambrian & Clydach
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.93
2.00
0.93
2.44
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
2.45
1.15
2.44
1.11
2.45
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.56
1.00
0.75
2.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.9%
No
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
5.7%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
4.6%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Cambrian & Clydach goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.3%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.7%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Cambrian & Clydach goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Caernarfon Town is 0.67 points better than Cambrian & Clydach in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Caernarfon Town is 1.17 goals better than Cambrian & Clydach in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Caernarfon Town is 0.17 goals worse than Cambrian & Clydach in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Caernarfon Town or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
24%
29%
covers Caernarfon Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town or Cambrian & Clydach
75.6%
Avg Implied -
46%
24%
29%
covers Caernarfon Town + Cambrian & Clydach
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cambrian & Clydach
53.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
24%
29%
covers Draw + Cambrian & Clydach
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Caernarfon Town, so a minus line means Caernarfon Town give that many goals of a start and Cambrian & Clydach receive them. At -1, Caernarfon Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Caernarfon Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town -2
11.9%
Draw -2
14.3%
Cambrian & Clydach +2
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town -1
26.2%
Draw -1
20.1%
Cambrian & Clydach +1
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town +1
70.7%
Draw +1
15.5%
Cambrian & Clydach -1
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Caernarfon Town)
Caernarfon Town +2
86.2%
Draw +2
8.7%
Cambrian & Clydach -2
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.06
0.75
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.54
1.14
0.57
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambrian & Clydach
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (20)
1.20
0.70
1.33
0.78
1.09
0.64
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.25
0.00
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.06
0.75
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.58
1.14
0.64
1.40
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambrian & Clydach
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.40
1.07
0.43
1.44
0.38
vs Stronger (20)
1.25
0.45
1.11
0.33
1.36
0.55
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.33
0.75
0.75
1.60
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
CT wins
0
Draws
0
C&C wins
Head-to-head
Caernarfon Town vs Cambrian & Clydach · H/A from CT
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell