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Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2024
Time: 18:45
Final 2-0
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Vs
49%
24%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-811D22D18L10W11D21W12L17L05L22DA·GAP02/02A·CAR10/02H·THE23/02H·NEW01/03A·BAL08/03H·GAP15/03H·CAR23/03A·THE05/04A·NEW13/04H·BAL21/04
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.532.301.602.071.472.53
vs Stronger (4)1.005.001.005.501.004.50
vs Similar (24)1.461.961.581.671.332.25
vs Weaker (2)3.501.003.000.004.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D22D12L04L02L01L21W03L05L13LA·BAL03/02H·CAE10/02A·GAP24/02A·THE02/03A·NEW09/03H·BAL16/03A·CAE23/03H·GAP06/04H·THE13/04H·NEW21/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.132.101.402.000.872.20
vs Stronger (6)1.003.831.003.331.004.33
vs Similar (24)1.171.671.501.670.831.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
4.9%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
01234
04.9%4.2%3.5%1.6%0.5%
16.3%11%6.7%3.0%1.0%
27.0%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.4%6.0%4.0%1.8%0.6%
42.1%2.8%1.9%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Caernarfon Town is 0.20 points better than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.18).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Caernarfon Town is 0.62 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.06).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Caernarfon Town is 0.12 goals worse than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (2.09 vs 1.97).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D14L10W01L00D02L04L01L11DA·GAP02/02A·CAR10/02H·THE23/02H·NEW01/03A·BAL08/03H·GAP15/03H·CAR23/03A·THE05/04A·NEW13/04H·BAL21/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.530.730.671.27
vs Stronger (4)0.752.001.002.000.502.00
vs Similar (24)0.540.830.500.580.581.08
vs Weaker (2)1.001.000.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L03L00D00D20W02L01L02LA·BAL03/02H·CAE10/02A·GAP24/02A·THE02/03A·NEW09/03H·BAL16/03A·CAE23/03H·GAP06/04H·THE13/04H·NEW21/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.400.800.531.13
vs Stronger (6)0.332.000.331.330.332.67
vs Similar (24)0.500.710.420.670.580.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D04L00D10W21W10W13L04L11DA·GAP02/02A·CAR10/02H·THE23/02H·NEW01/03A·BAL08/03H·GAP15/03H·CAR23/03A·THE05/04A·NEW13/04H·BAL21/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.301.071.330.801.27
vs Stronger (4)0.253.000.003.500.502.50
vs Similar (24)0.921.121.081.080.751.17
vs Weaker (2)2.500.003.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D11D01L02L01L01L01L04L11DA·BAL03/02H·CAE10/02A·GAP24/02A·THE02/03A·NEW09/03H·BAL16/03A·CAE23/03H·GAP06/04H·THE13/04H·NEW21/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.131.001.200.331.07
vs Stronger (6)0.671.830.672.000.671.67
vs Similar (24)0.670.961.081.000.250.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
CT wins
2
Draws
1
CM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET · H/A from CT
DateH/AGameScore
23/03/24HCT Vs Cardiff MET1-2
10/02/24ACardiff MET Vs CT2-2
13/01/24ACardiff MET Vs CT2-2
21/10/23HCT Vs Cardiff MET5-1
29/10/22ACardiff MET Vs CT0-3
27/08/22HCT Vs Cardiff MET5-1

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24HCT Vs Bala Town2-2
13/04/24ANewtown AFC Vs CT5-0
05/04/24AThe New Saints Vs CT7-1
23/03/24HCT Vs Cardiff MET1-2
15/03/24HCT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC2-1
08/03/24ABala Town Vs CT1-1
01/03/24HCT Vs Newtown AFC1-0
23/02/24HCT Vs The New Saints1-8
10/02/24ACardiff MET Vs CT2-2
02/02/24AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs CT1-1

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24HCM Vs Newtown AFC1-3
13/04/24HCM Vs The New Saints0-5
06/04/24HCM Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-3
23/03/24ACaernarfon Town Vs CM1-2
16/03/24HCM Vs Bala Town0-1
09/03/24ANewtown AFC Vs CM2-0
02/03/24AThe New Saints Vs CM4-0
24/02/24AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs CM2-1
10/02/24HCM Vs Caernarfon Town2-2
03/02/24ABala Town Vs CM1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.16
HomeLWWLD1.25
AwayDDDLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals3.663.503.81
Over 1.5 %88%79%96%
Over 2.5 %74%71%77%
Over 3.5 %48%46%50%
Scored1.581.581.58
Conceded2.081.922.23
BTTS66%62%69%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.36
HomeDLLLL1.54
AwayDLLLW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%29%
AVG goals2.942.883.00
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.201.351.04
Conceded1.741.541.96
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3292
94%
2.9
11718+99
4.2
81%
72%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.70.6
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3259
56%
1.8
7043+27
3.5
84%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.3
-
3PenybontPenybont3452
44%
1.5
5240+12
2.7
71%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.2
-
4Bala TownBala Town3251
41%
1.6
3831+7
2.2
59%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3447
38%
1.4
5771-14
3.8
91%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.72.1
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3344
39%
1.3
4951-2
3.0
79%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3243
34%
1.3
3940-1
2.5
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8Cardiff METCardiff MET3339
30%
1.2
3565-30
3.0
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.0
-
9Barry TownBarry Town3232
22%
1.0
3654-18
2.8
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
10Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3231
25%
1.0
2341-18
2.0
56%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3227
22%
0.8
2757-30
2.6
69%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3225
22%
0.8
3466-32
3.1
72%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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