This highly anticipated match between Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay in the Wales Premier League is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a defeat against Penybont and the away side having drawn their last outing against Ammanford AFC. The model's selection is the Away win, with a 37% probability, while the home side has a 35% chance of taking the three points and the draw is a 28% possibility.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Caernarfon Town has averaged 1.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Colwyn Bay has averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded away against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 77.4% probability and Under 3.5 with a 70.1% probability. Caernarfon Town has a 35% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing to Colwyn Bay.
Results analysis
A stunning upset in the Wales: Premier League as Caernarfon Town's 3-0 win over Colwyn Bay extends their run of victories. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, but the pre-match favourite was Colwyn Bay, who were given a 38% chance of winning. The model had predicted an away win for Colwyn Bay with a 38% probability. The model's selection of an away win for Colwyn Bay HIT, but unfortunately, it was the wrong result. Colwyn Bay's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also HIT, with a 77.7% probability. The most likely score was 1-1, with a 13.2% probability, but the actual result was a more convincing 3-0 win for Caernarfon Town.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
34.4%
Avg Implied 35.7% · @ 2.52
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.66
888Sport
2.63
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.60
1xBet
2.57
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.26
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Colwyn Bay win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.46
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.70
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
888Sport
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.30
2.00
1.60
1.47
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.75
0.50
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.92
1.08
2.23
1.31
1.58
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.86
1.36
1.19
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.24
2.00
1.42
1.15
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.22+2.8%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 3.65-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
10Bet
3.95
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.72-1.2%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.99+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.17
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 2.73-3.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.38+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
10Bet
2.75
Under
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.58-0.6%
No
42.5%
@ 2.19+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
No
Unibet
2.35
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.21
William Hil
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.02+5.9%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.76+3.5%
2-1
8.1%@ 8.76+3.1%
0-1
7.7%@ 8.94+2.8%
0-0
7.4%@ 9.39+2.7%
1-0
7.2%@ 8.98+2.3%
0-2
6.3%@ 12.56+2.8%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.09+1.8%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Colwyn Bay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.7%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
1
7.2%
13%
8.5%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.7%
8.1%
5.8%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.6%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Colwyn Bay goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Caernarfon Town is 0.33 points better than Colwyn Bay in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Caernarfon Town is 1.17 goals better than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Caernarfon Town is 0.17 goals better than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
1.00
0.80
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.56
1.15
0.62
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.07
0.50
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.48
1.08
0.58
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.00
0.80
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.52
1.08
0.69
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.79
0.86
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.76
0.92
0.83
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+2.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →