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Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2022
Time: 14:30
Final 0-2
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Vs
49%
27%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Caernarfon Town win✗ Miss
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win✓ Hit
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W12L31W21W02L13L20W21W03L30WH·CAR27/08A·NEW30/08H·AIR02/09H·HAV17/09H·GAP27/09A·PON01/10H·FLI14/10H·ABE21/10A·THE25/10A·CAR29/10
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.751.252.290.861.001.80
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (9)1.781.112.200.801.251.50
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.501.00--
Clean sheet %25% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W32W02L32W31W11D11D30W01L11DH·FLI27/08H·HAV30/08A·GAP03/09A·NEW17/09H·ABE23/09H·PON27/09A·FLI01/10A·AIR15/10H·GAP22/10A·BAL29/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.581.081.831.001.331.17
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (9)1.441.221.601.001.251.50
vs Weaker (2)3.000.503.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Penybont goals →
01234
07.3%5.8%3.9%1.5%0.4%
19.1%13%6.5%2.4%0.7%
28.5%9.6%5.4%2.0%0.6%
34.7%5.3%3.0%1.1%0.3%
41.9%2.2%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Caernarfon Town is 0.59 points worse than Penybont in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.81).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Caernarfon Town and Penybont are level in goals scored per game (both 1.59).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Caernarfon Town is 0.69 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.00).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W02L01L10W00D01L00D10W02L00DH·CAR27/08A·NEW30/08H·AIR02/09H·HAV17/09H·GAP27/09A·PON01/10H·FLI14/10H·ABE21/10A·THE25/10A·CAR29/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.420.580.710.290.001.00
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.800.200.000.75
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %58% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D01L20W21W11D11D10W00D10WH·FLI27/08H·HAV30/08A·GAP03/09A·NEW17/09H·ABE23/09H·PON27/09A·FLI01/10A·AIR15/10H·GAP22/10A·BAL29/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.500.670.670.830.33
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.560.400.601.000.50
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W30W11D02L12L20W11D01L30WH·CAR27/08A·NEW30/08H·AIR02/09H·HAV17/09H·GAP27/09A·PON01/10H·FLI14/10H·ABE21/10A·THE25/10A·CAR29/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.671.570.571.000.80
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (9)1.330.671.400.601.250.75
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.000.50--
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W01L12L10W00D00D20W01L01LH·FLI27/08H·HAV30/08A·GAP03/09A·NEW17/09H·ABE23/09H·PON27/09A·FLI01/10A·AIR15/10H·GAP22/10A·BAL29/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.581.170.330.500.83
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.780.671.200.400.251.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
CT wins
0
Draws
0
PEN wins

Head-to-head

Caernarfon Town vs Penybont · H/A from CT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22ACardiff MET Vs CT0-3
25/10/22AThe New Saints Vs CT3-0
21/10/22HCT Vs Aberystwyth Town2-1
14/10/22HCT Vs Flint Town United2-0
01/10/22APontypridd Town Vs CT3-1
27/09/22HCT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-2
17/09/22HCT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-1
02/09/22HCT Vs Airbus UK3-1
30/08/22ANewtown AFC Vs CT2-1
27/08/22HCT Vs Cardiff MET5-1

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22ABala Town Vs PEN1-1
22/10/22HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-1
15/10/22AAirbus UK Vs PEN0-3
01/10/22AFlint Town United Vs PEN1-1
27/09/22HPEN Vs Pontypridd Town1-1
23/09/22HPEN Vs Aberystwyth Town3-1
17/09/22ANewtown AFC Vs PEN2-3
03/09/22AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs PEN2-0
30/08/22HPEN Vs Haverfordwest County AFC3-2
27/08/22HPEN Vs Flint Town United2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.75
HomeWWLWW2.57
AwayLLLLW0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%86%20%
AVG goals3.003.142.80
Over 1.5 %92%100%80%
Over 2.5 %67%57%80%
Over 3.5 %25%29%20%
Scored1.752.291.00
Conceded1.250.861.80
BTTS50%57%40%
Clean Sheet25%29%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLD1.75
HomeWWWDL2.17
AwayLWDWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%67%33%
AVG goals2.672.832.50
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %42%50%33%
Over 3.5 %25%33%17%
Scored1.581.831.33
Conceded1.081.001.17
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet17%17%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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