This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.17
1.69
1.31
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
1.33
3.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.00
1.91
0.82
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.9%
Under 2.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
6.7%
0-0
6.3%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Penybont goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.3%
5.3%
2.6%
0.9%
1
6.7%
12%
8.1%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.6%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.1%
4.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Caernarfon Town is 0.15 points worse than Penybont in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.53).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Caernarfon Town is 0.15 goals better than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.53).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Caernarfon Town is 0.91 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (2.09 vs 1.18).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.57
0.36
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.05
0.56
0.44
0.55
1.55
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
0.67
0.33
1.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.48
1.00
0.18
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.07
1.14
1.06
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.10
1.11
1.33
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.38
1.67
0.00
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.94
0.88
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
2.33
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.52
0.91
0.64
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Bala Town
Newtown AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Cardiff MET
Barry Town
Pontypridd Town
Aberystwyth Town
Colwyn Bay